JPMorgan maintains Overweight on Akeso; HARMONi-3 adds a second interim OS look in 1H27

Overview

This report focuses on Summit, Akeso's US partner, and its 2Q26 results, highlighting two key items: the updated OS analysis timeline for the global Phase III HARMONi-3 study and Summit's newly filed ATM equity issuance plan of up to US$380mn. JPMorgan maintains its Overweight rating on Akeso and Dec-26 target price of HK$162.00, believing the current share price still offers upside.

Core views

The core view is that although the early OS look for HARMONi-3 in 2H26 may not have sufficient statistical power, the newly added second interim OS analysis in 1H27 will benefit from longer follow-up and better statistical robustness; meanwhile, Summit's new ATM should help fill the overseas development funding gap for ivonescimab. For Akeso, overseas commercialization of ivonescimab is an important source of future milestone payments and royalties, while AK104, AK112, and other bispecific pipelines collectively support the company's value.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates Akeso's investment appeal by combining Summit management disclosures, the key clinical timeline of HARMONi-3, changes in cash and operating expenses, ATM financing capacity, Akeso's peak sales assumptions for its product pipeline, and DCF valuation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF valuation

  Derive the target price by discounting free cash flow

  JPMorgan conducts a DCF valuation based on Akeso's free cash flow forecasts through 2034, assuming a terminal growth rate of 3.0% and a WACC of 9.6%, arriving at a Dec-26 target price of HK$162.

• Clinical catalyst analysisPFS and OS readout timeline

  Assess pipeline value through key clinical endpoints and statistical power

  The report focuses on distinguishing among the squamous cohort PFS with an accompanying early OS look in 2H26, the second interim OS analysis for the squamous cohort in 1H27, and the PFS analysis for the non-squamous cohort in 1H27, believing that different readout nodes have different implications for market expectations and regulatory timing.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso (9926.HK)

  The covered company in the report, rated Overweight with a target price of HK$162.00.

  Strengths

  The company is a commercial-stage biotech company in China and a leader in bispecific antibodies; both AK104 and AK112 have high peak sales expectations in China, AK104 has already initiated global registrational trials in gastric cancer and liver cancer, and other bispecific assets in oncology, immunology, and CNS provide additional pipeline value.

  Weaknesses

  The market reaction to ASCO 2026 HARMONi-6 OS data has been relatively cautious; it remains uncertain whether the 2H26 interim OS in HARMONi-3 will reach statistical significance; overseas value realization depends on Summit's clinical development and commercialization execution.

  Comparison

  Compared with biotech companies that rely only on a single commercialized product in China, Akeso's value comes simultaneously from AK104, AK112/ivonescimab, and multiple bispecific pipelines, but its valuation is more sensitive to key clinical readouts and regulatory timelines.

  Risks

  The main downside risks include setbacks in pipeline development and AK104 or AK112 sales coming in below JPMorgan expectations.

Key data

• RatingOverweightThe report maintains Overweight on Akeso.
• Target priceHK$162.00Dec-26 target price, based on DCF valuation.
• Current priceHK$99.509926.HK share price on July 24, 2026.
• Implied upsideapproximately 62.8%Calculated based on the target price of HK$162.00 and the current price of HK$99.50.
• Summit 2Q26 ending cashapproximately US$690.7mnHigher than US$598.7mn in 1Q26.
• Size of Summit's new ATMup to US$380mnUsed to support the continued clinical development of ivonescimab.
• Summit 2Q26 non-GAAP quarterly operating expensesUS$151.8mnMainly driven by higher R&D expenses and clinical trial operations.
• Expected peak sales of AK104 in China>Rmb7bnThe report believes indication expansion can cover multiple large markets in China.
• Expected peak sales of AK112 in China>Rmb7bnThe report believes AK112/ivonescimab has strong sales momentum in China.
• Peak sales model for ivonescimab ex-ChinaUS$4bnAlthough it remains uncertain whether the interim OS in HARMONi-3 in 2H26 will reach statistical significance.

Impact & implications

For investors, the near-term key is whether the 2H26 PFS and early OS trend in the HARMONi-3 squamous cohort can support market confidence; the medium-term outlook depends on the second interim OS analysis in 1H27, the PFS readout of the non-squamous cohort, and whether the FDA requires additional review time or an ODAC meeting. If the clinical readouts and regulatory path progress smoothly, expectations for Akeso's overseas milestones and royalties could strengthen; if data or review timelines are delayed, valuation may come under pressure.

Risks

• The alpha spend for the early OS analysis of the HARMONi-3 squamous cohort in 2H26 is very small, which may only provide directional trend information rather than a statistically powered hazard ratio.
• The FDA may require additional review time, creating a risk of a delayed PDUFA.
• It remains uncertain whether the FDA will convene an ODAC, and if it does, review uncertainty may increase.
• The sequencing between the PFS analysis of the HARMONi-3 non-squamous cohort and the second OS analysis of the squamous cohort in 1H27 is not yet clear.
• The pipeline may encounter development setbacks.
• AK104 or AK112 sales may come in below expectations.
• Summit's continued clinical development requires funding support; while ATM financing may ease the funding gap, it also reflects high R&D investment needs.

What to watch

• The 2H26 squamous cohort PFS analysis and the accompanying disclosure of early OS trends.
• The second interim OS analysis of the squamous cohort in 1H27, especially the survival curve separation and statistical power at a median follow-up in the low-20-month range.
• The actual timing of the 1H27 non-squamous cohort PFS analysis.
• Whether the FDA requires more review time and whether the PDUFA is delayed.
• Whether the FDA convenes an ODAC.
• The actual issuance progress of Summit's new US$380mn ATM and its cash burn situation.
• AK104 indication expansion in China, progress in global registrational trials, and AK112/ivonescimab sales momentum in China.