Interim OS from HARMONi-6 selected for the ASCO'26 plenary session; J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight on Akeso

Overview

This is a company research report on Akeso (9926.HK). The report focuses on the interim OS results from the Phase III HARMONi-6 study of ivonescimab plus chemotherapy versus tislelizumab plus chemotherapy as first-line treatment for advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer, and notes that these results will be presented at the ASCO'26 plenary session. J.P. Morgan views this conference placement as a positive signal and maintains its Overweight rating and HK$162 target price on the company.

Core views

The core view is that the selection of HARMONi-6 interim OS results for the ASCO'26 plenary session boosts market confidence in the quality of the data. The report believes the base-case interim OS HR range is 0.70-0.75 and expects the final OS HR to achieve statistical significance. However, uncertainty remains as to whether the interim OS will be statistically significant, with the key variables being the actual timing of OS event accrual and the level of alpha allocated to the interim analysis. The company’s long-term growth drivers come from AK104’s expansion into multiple large indications in China, as well as the potential peak sales of AK112 in China NSCLC and overseas in the PD-(L)1/VEGF field.

Analysis framework

The report uses scenario analysis based on clinical event counts and OS HR, combined with a DCF valuation framework. On the clinical side, it derives the interim OS HR for HARMONi-6 and its statistical significance based on the ASCO abstract submission timing, interim OS event count, assumed mOS for the tislelizumab arm, and the alpha threshold. On the valuation side, it forecasts Akeso’s free cash flow through 2034 and applies WACC and a terminal growth rate to derive the target price.

Methodology notes

• clinical_trial_statisticsinterim OS hazard ratio analysis

  Interim OS HR scenario analysis

  The report estimates approximately 222 interim OS events and calculates the interim OS HR under the assumption of 23.3 months mOS for the tislelizumab arm; if the event count is reached in mid-February, the HR is around 0.73.

• Valuation methodsDCF valuation

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  The HK$162 target price is based on a DCF model forecasting the company’s free cash flow through 2034 and using a 3.0% terminal growth rate and 9.6% WACC.

• cost_of_capitalWACC assumptions

  Weighted average cost of capital assumptions

  The report uses a 3.8% risk-free rate, 6.6% market risk premium, 1.0 beta, 10.4% cost of equity, and 3.0% cost of debt to derive a 9.6% WACC.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso / 9926.HK

  Research coverage target; J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating.

  Strengths

  Bispecific antibody platform, with AK104 and AK112 offering room for expansion into large indications; HARMONi-6’s selection for the ASCO'26 plenary session is a positive signal.

  Weaknesses

  Statistical significance of interim OS remains uncertain, and commercialization expectations depend on sales delivery from AK104 and AK112.

  Comparison

  The report believes AK112 holds a leading position in the PD-(L)1/VEGF field and has competitive efficacy characteristics relative to Keytruda.

  Risks

  Setbacks in pipeline development, or AK104 and AK112 sales coming in below expectations.

Key data

• Current share priceHK$146.70As of April 21, 2026.
• Target priceHK$162.00Dec-26 target price.
• Implied upsideapproximately 10.4%Calculated based on target price of HK$162.00 and current price of HK$146.70.
• Estimated interim OS event countapproximately 222 casesThe report estimates that the event count required for the HARMONi-6 interim analysis may be reached in February or March 2026.
• Base-case interim OS HR0.70-0.75If the event count is reached in mid-February, the updated estimate is around 0.73; if reached in March, it could be below 0.73.
• Statistical significance thresholdOS HR needs to be around 0.71 or lowerWhen the alpha for the interim analysis is 0.01, the report estimates this level is required for statistical significance.
• Expected peak sales of AK104 in Chinaapproximately Rmb7bnDriven by indication expansion.
• Expected peak sales of AK112 in China NSCLC>Rmb7bnThe report believes NRDL inclusion will help unlock sales momentum.
• Overseas peak sales potential of AK112US$5+bnBased on its leading position in the PD-(L)1/VEGF field and competitive efficacy versus Keytruda.

Impact & implications

If interim OS data from HARMONi-6 are presented at the ASCO'26 plenary session and show a strong HR, this could reinforce market recognition of ivonescimab’s differentiated efficacy and global commercialization potential, supporting Akeso’s valuation. However, if the interim OS does not reach statistical significance, the short-term share price reaction may be volatile due to alpha allocation and market expectations.

Risks

• Even if the HARMONi-6 interim OS HR is around 0.73, it may still fail to achieve statistical significance when alpha is 0.01.
• The timing of OS event accrual and the alpha allocation for the interim analysis are unknown, creating uncertainty in data interpretation.
• The pipeline may encounter development setbacks.
• AK104 or AK112 sales may come in below J.P. Morgan’s expectations.
• J.P. Morgan discloses that it may have market-making, client, potential investment banking compensation, or debt securities holding relationships with Akeso or related entities.

What to watch

• The final text of the ASCO'26 abstract to be released at 08:00 AM EST on May 31, 2026.
• The specific HR, confidence interval, and p-value of the HARMONi-6 interim OS data at the ASCO'26 plenary session.
• The alpha allocation used in the interim analysis and whether statistical significance is achieved.
• Post-NRDL sales momentum of AK112 in the China NSCLC market.
• Progress in AK104 indication expansion and delivery of peak sales in China.