US REITs: Citi survey finds investors leaning bullish on US REITs, with healthcare, data centers and apartments favored for the next 12 months.

Overview

Citi Research summarizes a September 2026 survey of 22 investors on the US REIT outlook. The survey points to a constructive 12-month view for the asset class, supported by expected lower long-term rates, but with sharp differences in expected performance among property sectors and individual REITs.

Core views

The survey indicates that investors remain constructive on REITs despite the recent pullback. Fifty percent of respondents described their 12-month outlook as bullish, compared with 32% neutral and 18% bearish. Respondents expect an average REIT total return of 6.6% over the next 12 months, calculated using response-range midpoints; roughly 82% expect positive returns and roughly 18% expect declines. This compares with REITs being up 5% year to date while trailing the S&P 500's 12% gain. Citi attributes its own constructive sector backdrop to solid earnings growth, improving operating KPIs, reasonable valuations and supportive supply conditions, while stressing that security selection remains important. The rate outlook is a central part of the survey's backdrop. The weighted average respondent forecast implies a 10-year Treasury yield of about 4.85% in 12 months, versus about 5.25% currently, or roughly 40bp lower. A majority, 57%, expect the yield to be between 4.0% and 5.0%, while 38% expect it above 5.0%. Investors also expect the S&P 500 to return 5.0% over the same period, below the 6.6% expected for REITs; 67% expect the S&P 500 to be higher in 12 months and 14% expect it to be lower. Sector preferences are strongly positive for healthcare, data centers and apartments. About 59%, 55% and 41% of investors, respectively, selected these sectors as likely outperformers. In ranked first-choice votes, healthcare led at about 36%, followed by apartments at about 18% and data centers at about 14%. Healthcare carried the strongest overall conviction: 82% placed it in either their top-three best or worst sectors, and 72% of that sentiment was positive. Healthcare, data centers, apartments and industrial were mostly positive sectors, with more than roughly 70% positive sentiment. Relative to the June survey, shopping centers rose eight places to tie for fifth in expected-outperformance ranking, while manufactured housing fell seven places to 14th. Year over year, shopping centers and net lease improved most in the best-performing ranking, whereas industrial fell three places to fourth from first. The survey's negative rankings place lodging, self-storage and net lease as the three sectors most likely to underperform. Roughly 41% of investors included each among their three worst sectors. Net lease, lodging, office and cold storage showed mostly negative sentiment of roughly 80% or more. Self-storage's pessimism increased materially year over year, rising 13 places to tie for the worst rank. Compared with June, data centers and healthcare moved higher in the worst-performing ranking by eight and six places, respectively; this indicates more polarized views even as both remain among the leading expected outperformers. In total-vote conviction measures, self-storage and net lease also drew views from more than half of respondents. Individual-stock views were broad rather than concentrated. Around 33 different REITs were selected as expected outperformers, but the top 10 received about 50% of votes; American Healthcare REIT (AHR), Americold Realty Trust (COLD) and Equinix (EQIX) were the leading picks. The underperformer survey was similarly dispersed across around 34 stocks: Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) ranked first with about 8.9% of votes, followed by COLD at about 6.7%. COLD therefore appears in both the leading-outperformer and underperformer selections, reflecting conflicting investor views. For M&A expectations, apartment REITs were the most frequently selected sector at about 23%, but respondents named 25 unique tickers; CubeSmart (CUBE), Camden Property Trust (CPT) and Lineage (UE) were the leading cited targets. Citi notes risks to the constructive REIT setup from higher and volatile interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns about AI-driven disruption. These factors, together with the survey's divergent sector and stock votes, underpin the report's emphasis on dispersion rather than a uniform REIT outcome.

Analysis framework

Citi surveys 22 investors, aggregates their outlook, return and rate responses using response-range midpoints, and compares sector rankings with the prior quarter and prior year. It then separates best- and worst-performing votes to assess both directional sentiment and conviction, while also compiling respondent views on stock performance and potential M&A targets.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Sector fundamentals assessed through earnings growth, operating KPIs, valuations and supply conditions.

  Citi frames its constructive REIT backdrop around improving property-level fundamentals, reasonable valuations and supportive supply, while distinguishing outcomes by property type.

• Event-Driven and Behavioral FinanceFund-Flow and Positioning Analysis

  Investor sentiment and conviction survey analysis.

  The report uses investor votes, rank changes and the share of respondents choosing a sector among their best or worst three to gauge positioning, directional sentiment and dispersion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• American Healthcare REIT (AHR)

  One of the top investor-selected REITs expected to outperform over the next 12 months.

  Strengths

  Selected among the leading survey picks.

  Comparison

  Listed alongside COLD and EQIX as top picks.

• Americold Realty Trust (COLD)

  Selected by investors among both expected outperformers and expected underperformers.

  Strengths

  Among the leading survey picks expected to outperform.

  Weaknesses

  Ranked second among expected underperformers at ~6.7% of votes.

  Comparison

  A clear example of divided investor views.

  Risks

  Cold storage sentiment was mostly negative in the sector-conviction analysis.

• Equinix (EQIX)

  One of the top investor-selected REITs expected to outperform over the next 12 months.

  Strengths

  Selected among the leading survey picks; data centers were a leading favored sector.

  Comparison

  Listed alongside AHR and COLD as top picks.

  Risks

  Data centers also rose eight places in the worst-performing ranking versus the prior survey, indicating greater polarization.

• Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)

  Top investor-selected REIT expected to underperform over the next 12 months.

  Weaknesses

  Received ~8.9% of underperformer votes.

  Comparison

  Ranked ahead of COLD among the most-cited underperformers.

  Risks

  Lodging was among the sectors most expected to underperform.

• CubeSmart (CUBE)

  One of the leading investor-cited potential M&A targets.

  Strengths

  Identified as a leading potential target.

  Weaknesses

  Self-storage was among the sectors most expected to underperform.

  Comparison

  Listed with CPT and UE as leading M&A targets.

  Risks

  Self-storage pessimism rose materially year over year.

Key data

• Bullish REIT outlook50%Share of 22 survey respondents bullish over the next 12 months; 32% were neutral and 18% bearish.
• Expected REIT total return+6.6%Average next-12-month forecast based on response-range midpoints.
• Expected S&P 500 total return+5.0%Average next-12-month respondent forecast.
• Implied 10-year Treasury yield~4.85%Weighted average 12-month forecast, versus a current yield of ~5.25%.
• Top expected outperformer sectorsHealthcare ~59%; Data Centers ~55%; Apartments ~41%Share of investors ranking each sector among likely outperformers.
• Healthcare conviction82%Respondents placing healthcare in either their top-three best or worst sectors; 72% of sentiment was positive.
• Top expected underperformer stocksPEB ~8.9%; COLD ~6.7%Leading individual REIT selections among expected underperformers.

Impact & implications

The survey supports a relative preference for REITs over the broad market over the next year, conditioned on lower expected long-term yields and differentiated property fundamentals. It also signals that sector-level labels are insufficient: healthcare, data centers and apartments have the strongest positive support, while lodging, self-storage and net lease face the most negative expectations, and certain names such as COLD attract sharply divided views.

Risks

• Higher and volatile interest rates could affect REIT performance.
• Macroeconomic uncertainty remains a risk to the REIT outlook.
• AI-disruption concerns could create further dispersion across REITs.

What to watch

• Whether the 10-year Treasury yield moves toward the survey-implied ~4.85% level over the next 12 months.
• Changes in investor positioning toward healthcare, data centers, apartments, lodging, self-storage and net lease.
• Whether the divergent investor views on cold storage and COLD resolve through sector fundamentals or performance.
• Developments involving the leading cited M&A targets CUBE, CPT and UE.