North American software opportunities from consumer AI agents: Consumer AI agents could expand software transaction and communications demand, with Twilio and Wix most exposed

Overview

This North American software report examines whether personal AI agents Muse and Instinct can expand demand for communications, web-presence, and commerce software. Morgan Stanley sees a meaningful medium-term demand opportunity, but says adoption must convert into paid usage, software attachment, or transactions before it affects estimates materially.

Core views

Morgan Stanley frames Muse and Instinct as personal AI agents that complete tasks rather than simply answer questions. Meta launched Muse on September 8, 2026 through its app and WhatsApp, while private Instinct is largely accessed through iMessage. Both introduced limited outbound-calling rollouts in mid-September, enabling contact with businesses for reservations, appointments, and customer-service matters. The report's central premise is that consumer agents lower the effort required to contact a business, while enterprise AI lowers the cost of responding. This combination could increase interaction volumes and support usage-based monetization across software infrastructure. For contact-center vendors RingCentral, NICE, and Five9, the prevailing AI concern has been that automation lets companies handle existing inquiries with fewer employees, putting pressure on seat-based models. Morgan Stanley argues that consumer agents add a demand-side offset because they can initiate tasks consumers previously lacked time or motivation to pursue. Higher inquiry volumes could cushion seat reductions and increase automation workloads priced by time, interaction, or outcome. The report nevertheless considers the ability of incumbents to win the AI layer and monetize enough to offset human-seat pressure unresolved. It looks for a faster shift toward AI revenue, cited at about 15% of Five9 subscription revenue and NICE annualized cloud revenue, alongside stabilizing or accelerating revenue growth. Twilio offers the broadest communications exposure because agents may generate authentication messages, reservation confirmations, follow-ups, and voice calls as they execute tasks. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the opportunity lies in the task-related communications rather than necessarily the dialogue with the assistant. Twilio could support either agent-originated calls or calls received by businesses, while products such as Conversation Relay could lift revenue per interaction through software attachment. However, the firm cautions ahead of Q3 results against extrapolating near-term upside to reported figures or guidance; Twilio had indicated that 5%+ beats in the first half were not expected to become the new normal. For Wix and GoDaddy, the report challenges the view that declining human website traffic must reduce spending on website infrastructure. Agents still need systems to discover businesses, book services, and transact, potentially encouraging SMB adoption of booking, checkout, chat, and AI-discovery tools. Wix is viewed as more directly exposed than GoDaddy because GoDaddy's larger domains business dilutes the read-through. Wix's MCP and Headless strategies could preserve its role as the operational backend even if external AI platforms control website creation or the consumer interface. The key, in Morgan Stanley's view, is retaining the booking, commerce, and operating relationship rather than the website visit itself. AI-native builders remain a competitive risk, and bundling features into offerings such as GoDaddy Airo may aid adoption and retention without producing a separately paid near-term upsell. Shopify is identified as the most direct e-commerce-software beneficiary. Morgan Stanley points to Shopify's Catalog as a standardized real-time product and inventory layer, Agentic Storefronts as a merchant control panel, and UCP as a transaction standard. These components could let agent platforms connect once to a backend spanning billions of products and millions of merchants rather than maintain integrations with individual brands. The report also argues that fragmented discovery across search, social, retail media, and agents increases the value of unified commerce systems that consolidate data and enable performance across channels. Agent-led product selection could also help surface niche brands in Shopify's long tail. Morgan Stanley plans further work on the distinct layers of Shopify's agentic opportunity.

Analysis framework

The report starts with the emerging capabilities and rollout of consumer agents, then traces how agent-initiated tasks could affect communications volumes, business software demand, and transaction infrastructure. It evaluates exposure by software category and company, distinguishing demand potential from the ability to monetize it and from near-term earnings implications.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Agent-driven demand transmission through communications, business infrastructure, and commerce software

  Morgan Stanley traces how consumer agents initiating tasks can generate downstream demand for calls, messages, booking, checkout, inventory, and transaction systems.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Twilio (TWLO)

  Broadest communications exposure to agent-initiated messages, calls, and software attachment.

  Strengths

  Usage-based communications model and potential revenue-per-interaction expansion through Conversation Relay.

  Comparison

  Broader communications exposure than other vendors discussed.

  Risks

  Near-term upside to results or guidance may be limited; monetization must materialize.

• Wix (WIX)

  Direct exposure to SMB business infrastructure needed for agent-led discovery, booking, and commerce.

  Strengths

  MCP and Headless strategies could preserve its backend role when outside AI platforms control the interface.

  Comparison

  More direct exposure to the opportunity than GoDaddy.

  Risks

  AI-native builders could compete, and retaining the operational relationship is essential.

• GoDaddy (GDDY)

  Web-presence provider that could benefit from demand for transaction-enabling SMB tools.

  Strengths

  Airo bundling may support adoption and retention.

  Weaknesses

  Its larger domains business dilutes the agentic-infrastructure read-through.

  Comparison

  Less directly exposed than Wix.

  Risks

  Bundled functionality may not produce a distinct paid upsell in the near term.

• Shopify (SHOP)

  Most direct e-commerce-software beneficiary of agentic commerce.

  Strengths

  Catalog, Agentic Storefronts, and UCP provide product, merchant-control, and transaction infrastructure.

  Comparison

  Uniquely positioned for platform-level integration across billions of products and millions of merchants.

• Five9 (FIVN), NICE (NICE), RingCentral (RNG)

  Contact-center vendors that could see higher interaction-based automation demand as consumer agents create more inquiries.

  Strengths

  Higher volumes could moderate seat-reduction pressure and support interaction-priced AI workloads.

  Weaknesses

  Seat-based models remain exposed to enterprise automation.

  Comparison

  RingCentral's clearest opportunity is consumption-metered AI Reception; Five9 and NICE are tracked for AI-revenue mix shifts.

  Risks

  It remains unresolved whether incumbents can win the AI layer and monetize enough to offset seat pressure.

Key data

• Muse launchSeptember 8, 2026Meta launched Muse through its app and WhatsApp.
• Outbound-calling rolloutMid-September 2026Muse and Instinct added limited outbound-calling capabilities.
• AI revenue mix marker~15%The report looks for faster AI-revenue mix shifts at Five9 subscription revenue and NICE annualized cloud revenue.
• Twilio first-half beat reference5%+Twilio indicated that first-half beats above this level were not expected to be the new normal.

Impact & implications

Morgan Stanley believes consumer-agent adoption could broaden the addressable demand pool for software vendors by creating more business interactions and transactions. The report favors the medium-term structural opportunity over expectations for immediate estimate revisions, with monetization and vendor control of the AI layer determining the ultimate benefit.

Risks

• AI-native website builders could intensify competition for web-presence providers.
• Incumbent contact-center vendors may not capture or monetize the AI layer sufficiently to offset pressure on human-seat models.
• Feature bundling may support adoption and retention without creating a separate paid upsell in the near term.
• The report does not view the theme as a near-term catalyst for estimate upside.

What to watch

• Whether agent activity converts into paid communications usage, software attachment, or transactions.
• The pace of AI-revenue mix gains at Five9 and NICE and whether revenue growth stabilizes or accelerates.
• Twilio's Q3 results and guidance, particularly whether communications demand becomes incremental.
• Whether Wix retains booking, commerce, and operational backend relationships as AI platforms control more of the consumer interface.
• Further development of Shopify's agentic-commerce opportunity.