Institutional Research

Following a C-level visit, Goldman Sachs highlights SenseTime's integrated model, token and agent offerings, alongside a larger AI computing platform. The firm maintains Neutral with a 12-month HK$2.03 target price.

• Management presented a system-level offering comprising One Model, One Token factory and one Agent Harness.
• The NEO unify architecture is intended to integrate text, audio, images and video more deeply.
• Goldman Sachs sees potential for lower token consumption and higher-quality outputs in office and content-creation use cases.
• The company plans to expand AI computing clusters and its domestic AI cloud stack using April 2026 placement proceeds.
• The 12-month target price is HK$2.03 versus a HK$1.26 price as of 25 September 2026.

The report argues that resilient growth, spare capacity and stable EM currencies should limit inflation pass-through from the energy shock. It expects the median EM policy rate to edge up in the near term before declining in 2027, while maintaining selective cross-asset conviction views.

• EM growth is slightly above potential in aggregate despite energy volatility and higher G4 yields.
• Goldman Sachs expects Brent to decline to $85/bbl by year-end, but sees clear upside risk if Gulf supply remains curtailed.
• The report expects EM policy easing to resume in 2027 after a short-term rise in the median policy rate.
• AI-related investment is supporting Asian technology exporters, especially Taiwan and Korea.

Jefferies sees resale prices in Hong Kong as the clearest early sign that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max demand is weaker than for the iPhone 17 range a year earlier. It views longer lead times cautiously, as DUO production ramping could be tightening supply, while China eSIM constraints may curb DUO's broader adoption.

• iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max resale-price trends in Hong Kong remain weak versus the iPhone 17 generation.
• Only the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro Max retained a meaningful resale premium, at about 8% above Apple's official selling price.
• Jefferies considers the weekend lead-time rebound a mixed signal because it may reflect tighter supply as DUO ramps.
• China's two-eSIM limit and in-person activation requirements could hinder DUO adoption among multi-number users and frequent travelers.
• Jefferies maintains its Underperform rating on Apple.

Goldman Sachs forecasts F4Q26 adjusted EPS of $1.73, above Visible Alpha consensus of $1.66, with segment EBIT of $4.93 billion. The firm lowers its target price to $140 from $144 on slightly lower EBITDA but retains a constructive multiyear view.

• F4Q26 EPS estimate of $1.73 is $0.07 above consensus.
• A 53rd week is expected to add about $600 million to segment operating income and lift revenue by 1.5%-2.0%.
• Experiences is expected to deliver $10.06 billion of revenue and $2.28 billion of EBIT.
• The firm estimates a 13% F2025-F2028E EPS CAGR.
• Target price is reduced to $140 from $144 while Buy is reiterated.

The report sees limited near-term core-inflation relief despite moderating headline inflation later on. Oil, supply-chain disruptions, AI adoption and tariff pass-through are the principal upside risks.

• UBS projects headline PCE inflation around 2.1%-2.2% in May 2027 and near the FOMC's 2% target around September or October 2027.
• Core PCE is projected at about 2.5% in 2027 and essentially 2.0% only at end-2028.
• The September 30 methodology revision is estimated to lower current core PCE inflation by about 0.25 percentage point.
• A permanent USD10/barrel Brent increase would raise the headline CPI price level by roughly 0.40 percentage point.

UBS expects TSMC's USD sales to grow 41% in 2026 and 40% in 2027, supported by accelerating CPU, GPU and ASIC demand. It reiterates Buy with an NT$3,650 target after raising 2027-28 capex estimates to US$90bn and US$105bn.

• UBS sees no sign of cloud-AI demand moderation and says the 2027-28 outlook has strengthened across CPUs, GPUs and ASICs.
• TSMC's 2026 USD sales growth is estimated at 41%, while 2027 growth is forecast at 40% versus consensus of 36%.
• Q3 sales are estimated to rise 14% sequentially in USD with a 67.1% gross margin; Q4 sales are forecast to rise another 10%.
• 2027 and 2028 capex forecasts rise to US$90bn and US$105bn from US$80bn and US$95bn.
• End-2028 N3/N2 capacity estimates rise to 220/210kwpm from 200/160kwpm.
• UBS raises its long-term earnings CAGR assumption from 25% to 27% and reiterates a 21x PE-based NT$3,650 target.

The report expects overseas expansion, product launches and improving NEV competitiveness to lift Geely's sales and earnings materially through 2030. Its HK$24 target price implies 52.3% upside from HK$15.76.

• Overseas volume is forecast to rise from 420k units in 2025 to 2.7mn in 2030E.
• Total sales volume is projected to grow from 3.0mn in 2025 to 5.4mn in 2030E.
• Net profit is forecast to increase from Rmb17bn in 2025 to Rmb41bn in 2030E.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts a 24% net-profit CAGR for 2026E-28E.
• The report sees overseas partnerships and localized production as reducing expansion risk.

The report is constructive on Qualcomm's edge-AI positioning and challenges the view that a US$300bn 2028 wafer-fab-equipment market is already priced into AMAT, LRCX and KLAC. It also argues Micron's memory LTAs should remain resilient despite investor skepticism.

• UBS models approximately US$280bn of WFE in 2028, versus a commonly cited US$300bn expectation.
• At a US$300bn annual WFE scenario, UBS estimates AMAT, LRCX and KLAC trade at roughly 15x to 19x earnings power.
• At US$400bn WFE, the implied valuation range falls to roughly 11x to 14x.
• Some major equipment suppliers are reportedly preparing supply chains for US$500bn of WFE over the next three to five years.
• UBS sees Qualcomm's Snapdragon Summit as supportive of its long-term edge-AI position, though not a major debate changer.
• UBS believes memory LTAs are protected by steep required DDR price declines and potentially more than US$10bn of customer prepayments.

The report argues that the S&P 500 has already absorbed a substantial rate-driven de-rating and can recover if Fed tightening remains moderate. A full hiking cycle remains the key adverse scenario.

• The US 10-year yield reached 5.2%, about 80bp above its one-year average and a 1.64 z-score event.
• S&P 500 next-twelve-month P/E has fallen 17% since November, nearing recession or slowdown-style de-rating levels.
• Past benign or moderate Fed-hike episodes produced average S&P 500 gains of 10.4% at six months and 17.7% at 12 months.
• Full Fed hiking cycles saw negative S&P 500 returns at every horizon through one year.
• UBS favors high-growth and high-CFROI exposures at a discount and identifies selected fundamentally strong subindustries with limited rate sensitivity.

UBS raises its 2028 N2 foundry demand forecast to 320kwpm from about 230kwpm and sees faster TSMC N3, N2 and A14 expansion. It also expects improving utilization and pricing in mature foundries, favoring TSMC, UMC, PSMC and SMIC.

• 2028 N2 demand forecast rises to 320kwpm, led by server CPUs, AI accelerators and ASIC volume ramps.
• TSMC N2 capacity is forecast at 210kwpm in 2028, versus UBS's prior 160kwpm estimate.
• UBS expects 8-inch utilization to reach 95% in 2027 and 12-inch 28/40nm utilization to reach 88.1%.
• UBS reiterates Buy on TSMC; UMC is its top mature-foundry pick.