2026-09-14 Daily Quick Read | Heluo Investment Research
This week, institutional research focused on AI infrastructure expansion, macro interest rates and geopolitical risks, and the energy transition. Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices and intensified capital outflows from Asia-Pacific, but regional valuations at historical lows provide a margin of safety. China's AI capex is expected to reach trillions in scale, driving an explosion in demand for optical modules, switches and electronic components, while increased government bond supply is pressuring short-end yields. Data center construction bottlenecks are shifting toward labor shortages, driving higher penetration of modular solutions; European power grid investment visibility extends into the next decade. Copper prices are distorted by tariff expectations, while uranium assets and nuclear power components benefit from policy support.
Asia-Pacific Macro, Interest Rates and Capital Flows
1 Related reports
Key views
Goldman Sachs maintained its MXAPJ 12-month target at 1,120 (implying 27% upside), believing valuations at historical lows provide a margin of safety, but Middle East tensions pushed Brent to a four-month high, which, combined with weekly foreign capital outflows of US$3.3bn from Asian emerging markets excluding China and elevated US Treasury yields, is pressuring near-term liquidity and earnings.
Current market environment
Stronger-than-expected US core CPI raised the probability of a rate hike in 9 to 90%, pushing global yields to multi-decade highs; the FTSE Russell index review is expected to bring about US$4.5bn in net passive inflows to partially offset outflow pressure.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
China Government Bond Supply and Yield Curve
1 Related reports
Key views
Goldman Sachs expects monthly net issuance of central and local government bonds from 9 to 10 to reach 1% of GDP; regression analysis shows supply has the greatest impact on the short end (exhibiting bear-flattening characteristics), but with repo rates anchored, weak domestic demand and low inflation expectations, long-end rates will remain structurally lower over the long term.
Current market environment
Commercial banks hoarding liquidity ahead of heavy issuance temporarily withdrew funds from the interbank market, causing short-duration rate products such as 1-year CDBs and IRS to also face phased repricing pressure.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Related reports(1)
- China: Gauging the Impact of Government Bond Supply on Bond YieldsGoldman Sachs · 2026-09-13
AI Infrastructure, Components and Optical Communication Networks
7 Related reports
Key views
Morgan Stanley expects China's AI capex to reach Rmb8.5tr over 2026-30; based on this, Goldman Sachs is bullish on TDK's aluminum electrolytic capacitor capacity expansion, Samsung Electro-Mechanics' pricing power amid MLCC/ABF supply tightness, and upward revisions to Ruijie's white-box switch shipments, while Nomura emphasized that 1.6T optical modules have become mainstream but high-end component yields are the core bottleneck; however, SG Micro and Ruijie were both kept at Neutral by Goldman Sachs as their valuations are fully priced in.
Current market environment
The AI data center MLCC market is expected to grow 70%-80% this year, and SEMCO has already raised channel prices twice; Ruijie's 2Q26 revenue rose 42% YoY, beating expectations; domestic AI chip shipments are expected to increase from 110 million units in 2025 to 1100 million units in 2030.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Related reports(7)
- TDK (6762.T): Components strategy briefing and plant tour highlight corporate culture, competitive edge, and growth potential for AI; BuyGoldman Sachs · 2026-09-12
- SG Micro (300661.SZ): China AI Tour: C-level visit: Optical module analog IC in expansion; Product mix upgrade driving ASP; NeutralGoldman Sachs · 2026-09-12
- Ruijie Networks (301165.SZ): AIDC switch shipments ramping up, driven by China CSPs; NeutralGoldman Sachs · 2026-09-12
- China's AI Path: From Rmb8.5tr Capex to 3x ComputeMorgan Stanley · 2026-09-13
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics (O09150.KS): 8 key takeaways from U.S. NDR: Al providing a significant tailwind to MLCC and ABF; BuyGoldman Sachs · 2026-09-13
- Global AI Trend Tracker – CIOE 2026 takeawaysNomura · 2026-09-14
- Global AI Trend Tracker – CIOE 2026 takeawaysNomura · 2026-09-14
Data Center Siting, Modular Construction and Electrical Equipment
2 Related reports
Key views
Bernstein believes that if frontier model training slows, demand will shift from rural areas to Tier 1/2 metro areas, benefiting operators with high metro concentration such as Equinix and Digital Realty while hurting CoreWeave; meanwhile, AI construction bottlenecks are shifting toward MEP labor shortages, with modular penetration expected to rise to nearly 60% by 2030, and Schneider and Vertiv, as integrated electrical OEMs, will capture incremental market share.
Current market environment
In the US, 70% of the credible development pipeline is located in rural or Tier 3 markets, while modular new-build scale CAGR is expected to reach 24%, and procurement models are shifting from component-by-component to single-supplier integrated systems.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Related reports(2)
- US Communications InfrastructureBernstein · 2026-09-14
- Powering AI: The modular advantage - how value shifts and who captures itBernstein · 2026-09-14
Nuclear SMRs, Uranium Assets and Nuclear Power Components
2 Related reports
Key views
Goldman Sachs noted that the third batch of investment projects under the Japan-US tariff agreement may focus on SMRs, with Japan Steel Works becoming a key beneficiary thanks to its large-scale forging capabilities, and IHI also positioning itself in the supply chain through investment in NuScale; Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Cameco, believing a potential Westinghouse IPO and the US government-backed AP1000 project pipeline constitute catalysts, but warned of execution delays and dilution risk from government participation rights.
Current market environment
The DOE conditionally committed to provide up to $17.5bn in financing for long-lead equipment for up to 10 AP1000 reactors, and Brookfield confidentially submitted a draft S-1 for Westinghouse's proposed IPO in 7 2026.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Related reports(2)
European Utilities and Power Grid Investment
1 Related reports
Key views
Bernstein believes power networks are the most visible growth engine for European utilities, with data centers, EVs and electrification driving incremental demand; existing plans by Iberdrola, Endesa and EDP may be conservative with room for upward revision, but net debt could increase by about €250bn by 2030, and high interest rates are suppressing equity valuations, while specialized equipment such as HVDC still faces procurement constraints.
Current market environment
Terna said more than 90% of its currently planned capex has been secured in the supply chain, and EDP benefits from US renewable energy PPA prices rising to $60–70/MWh.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Related reports(1)
- European Utilities & Clean EnergyBernstein · 2026-09-14
Copper Prices, Tariff Expectations and Inventory Distortions
1 Related reports
Key views
Bernstein attributed the current rise in copper prices to COMEX hoarding driven by US tariff expectations (inventories rising to about 700kt) rather than fundamental tightness; under its base case it estimates a fair copper price of about $11,125/t and maintained Market-Perform ratings on Freeport-McMoRan and Antofagasta, but if a 15% tariff is imposed, copper prices could rise above $15,000/t.
Current market environment
The copper industry's EBITDA margin has reached 73%, above the historical average, total refined copper inventories have reached 1.9Mt, and valuation multiples for most copper mining stocks are above their five-year averages.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Institutional disagreements
Fair Copper Price Levels and Tariff Impacts
Different views
- Under the base no-tariff scenario, the fair copper price is about $11,125/t, and excess COMEX inventory will flow back to the LME, depressing prices
- If a 15% tariff is implemented, inventory flowing into COMEX will increase again, and copper prices could rise above $15,000/t
Related reports(1)
- Global Metals & Mining: Copper inventories and the final chapter of tariff risk?Bernstein · 2026-09-14
Consumer, Auto, Crypto Regulation and Logistics
7 Related reports
Key views
Bernstein's tracking shows Hermes core handbag resale premiums stable at about 1.4x, but Greater China trends are weaker than Europe and the US; Mercedes-Benz is optimizing utilization through low-cost capacity expansion in Hungary, Volkswagen is advancing layoffs and restructuring, and Volvo plans to deploy autonomous trucks in 2027; concessions in the Senate CLARITY Act revised draft may raise the probability of crypto legislation passing; Goldman Sachs is bullish on a transport cycle recovery over the medium to long term, with logistics names such as EXPD and UPS benefiting from trade volatility and supply chain adjustments.
Current market environment
Semiconductor company days of inventory stand at 118 days, 24 days above the historical median; West Coast rail intermodal volumes rose 20% YoY, and Starlink MVNO can reduce wholesale fees by about 25% by using satellite offloading.
Future market changes
These reports do not specify a future scenario.
Related reports(7)
- Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker - September 2026 - Secondary market multiples remain stableBernstein · 2026-09-14
- European Automobiles & ComponentsBernstein · 2026-09-14
- Crypto markets: Are we getting CLARITY?Bernstein · 2026-09-14
- US Tariff Impact Tracker: Indicated Imports into LA to Decrease Next Week And Sharply Increase Two Weeks OutGoldman Sachs · 2026-09-14
- SZS (3376.TW): Foldable iPhone to drive growth ahead; Reiterate Buy with TP raised to NT$300Goldman Sachs · 2026-09-13
- Weekly: Highlighting Cerebras OW; ON Analyst DayMorgan Stanley · 2026-09-14
- Aerospace & Defence, US Telecom & Communications Infrastructure SpaceX: Potential for MVNO D2D growth? Continuing our assessment of SpaceX Connectivity business and telco impactBernstein · 2026-09-14