Hermès core Birkin and Kelly resale premiums held near 1.4x from 2Q26 to 3Q26

Overview

This Flashmail updates Bernstein's secondhand-price tracker for Hermès Birkin and Kelly handbags using recent auction data. It finds that core resale premiums remain stable, while arguing that Hermès can further develop its high-end offer and retail experience.

Core views

Bernstein updated its tracker with a Sotheby's London auction that closed on 11 September 2026. Of 175 lots offered, 22 met its handbag-basket criteria: two Birkin 25 Togo bags, nine Birkin 30 Togos, one Kelly 25 Epsom, seven Kelly 28 Epsoms and three Kelly Pochettes. No Mini Kelly 20 Epsoms met the criteria, and 21 lots were not sold in the auction. The institution's core tracker, limited to Birkin 25/30 and Kelly 25/28 models, showed volume-weighted resale premiums of about 1.4x in both 2Q26 and 3Q26. Bernstein therefore characterizes the core secondary-market multiple as stable. Its expanded tracker, which also includes Mini Kelly II and Kelly Pochette, declined to 1.5x from 1.7x; Bernstein cautions that this result is based on only one auction in one region and that the absence of Mini Kelly 20s—usually higher-premium bags—likely explains much of the movement. Regional conditions may differ. Bernstein expects Hong Kong resale trends to be weaker than those in Europe and the USA, citing social-media commentary pointing to more transparent pre-spend requirements in China and suggesting that excess demand there remains weaker than desired. It identifies seven more auctions scheduled through end-November as the next evidence needed to clarify the trend. Beyond the tracker, Bernstein argues that Hermès has spent the past decade stretching its offer downward and now has more work to do at the high end. It sees larger high-jewellery collections, haute couture and a new menswear creative director as supportive steps, but says these need to be paired with a better retail experience and more opportunities for high-end consumers to spend. The report argues that Hermès could address very-important-client frustrations with international shopping, improve in-store product availability, and introduce more exclusive, higher-priced products above Birkin and Kelly. Bernstein views the brand's leather-goods equity as exceptional but considers the retail experience less strong. For valuation, Bernstein applies a 3.1x relative P/E multiple to MSCI Europe to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast, producing a EUR2,150 target price. The ticker table lists an Outperform rating for Hermès International (RMS.FP), a EUR1,399.50 current price, adjusted EPS of EUR43.12 for 2025A, EUR44.45 for 2026E and EUR49.10 for 2027E, and adjusted P/E multiples of 32.5x, 31.5x and 28.5x respectively.

Analysis framework

Bernstein tracks auction resale prices against retail prices for selected Hermès handbag models, using volume-weighted averages and comparing core and expanded baskets. It then interprets regional and sample-composition effects before linking the strength of the secondary market to Hermès' luxury positioning and relative P/E valuation.

Methodology notes

• Industry Analysis

  Auction-based secondhand pricing tracker using volume-weighted resale premiums

  The report compares auction resale prices with retail prices for specified Birkin and Kelly models to monitor the strength and stability of secondary-market premiums.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Relative P/E valuation versus MSCI Europe

  Bernstein applies a 3.1x relative P/E multiple to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast to derive its EUR2,150 target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hermès International (RMS.FP)

  Primary covered company; its handbag resale premiums and high-end strategy are the report's focus.

  Strengths

  Brand equity in leather goods is described as second-to-none, and core Birkin and Kelly resale premiums remained around 1.4x.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein considers the retail experience less strong than the brand equity and identifies room to improve high-end consumer access and spending opportunities.

  Comparison

  Hong Kong resale trends are expected to be weaker than those in Europe and the USA.

  Risks

  Innovation failure, consumer concerns over precious skins, and successful legal challenges to commercial policies.

Key data

• Core resale premium~1.4xVolume-weighted average, unchanged between 2Q26 and 3Q26
• Expanded tracker resale premium1.5xDown from 1.7x, with the report attributing the move largely to limited sample composition
• Qualifying Sotheby's lots22 of 175London auction closed on 11 September 2026
• Target priceEUR2,150Derived using a 3.1x relative P/E multiple to MSCI Europe on blended NTM+1 forward EPS
• 2027E adjusted EPSEUR49.10Versus EUR44.45 in 2026E and EUR43.12 in 2025A

Impact & implications

Bernstein views stable core resale premiums as evidence that the secondary-market value of key Hermès handbags has held up. It argues that further upside in the franchise could come from improving the high-end retail experience, product availability and exclusivity rather than relying solely on the existing Birkin and Kelly proposition.

Risks

• Failure to innovate convincingly could place Hermès in a classic niche if consumer aesthetics move away from quiet luxury.
• Greater consumer concern about animal welfare could renew scrutiny of Hermès' reliance on precious skins; shifting toward lower-cost materials at higher volumes could weaken the rarity effect of iconic products.
• If legal challenges to Hermès' commercial policies succeed, higher handbag prices could reduce growth in other categories that benefit from iconic-product pull.

What to watch

• Results from seven additional auctions scheduled through end-November, which Bernstein says should provide greater clarity on resale trends.
• Whether Hong Kong resale trends continue to lag Europe and the USA amid more transparent pre-spend requirements in China.
• Progress in improving the high-end retail experience, international shopping access, in-store availability and exclusivity.