Latin American metals & mining, steel, and pulp & paper coverage Report Interpretation
The report updates coverage ratings, commodity and FX forecasts, valuation comparisons and spot-price sensitivities across Latin American resource equities. It identifies Buy-rated names including Aura Minerals, Hudbay, First Quantum, Grupo Mexico, Gerdau, Ternium, Usiminas and Suzano, while maintaining Sell ratings on Copec, CSN and CSN Mineração.
Summary
The report updates coverage ratings, commodity and FX forecasts, valuation comparisons and spot-price sensitivities across Latin American resource equities. It identifies Buy-rated names including Aura Minerals, Hudbay, First Quantum, Grupo Mexico, Gerdau, Ternium, Usiminas and Suzano, while maintaining Sell ratings on Copec, CSN and CSN Mineração.
- Aura Minerals carries a Buy rating, a US$89.00 target price and 57% indicated 12-month upside from a US$56.6 share price.
- Ero Copper is Neutral with a US$33.00 target and 21% indicated upside; Vale is Neutral with a US$16.00 target and 10% indicated upside.
- The report tests valuation, EBITDA and cash-flow outcomes under spot commodity prices and under ±10% commodity-price changes.
- Goldman Sachs’ 2026E/2027E copper forecasts are US$13,383/t and US$13,800/t, versus spot of US$13,870/t.
Report Interpretation
Overview
This is a coverage-summary and scenario report for Latin American mining, steel, and pulp-and-paper equities. Goldman Sachs combines stock ratings and target prices with commodity and FX forecasts, compares its estimates with spot-price outcomes and consensus, and shows how valuation and EBITDA could change when commodity prices move.
Core views
Goldman Sachs organizes the coverage universe across mining, steel, and pulp & paper using its commodity-price forecasts as the base case. The report rates Aura Minerals, First Quantum Minerals, Hudbay Minerals, Grupo Mexico, Gerdau, Ternium, Usiminas and Suzano Buy; it rates Copec, CSN and CSN Mineração Sell; and it assigns Neutral ratings to Ero Copper, Vale, Capstone Copper, SQM, Southern Copper, Dexco, CMPC and Klabin. The report is therefore a cross-sectional coverage map rather than a single-company recommendation. The coverage table shows materially different target-price implications. Aura Minerals is Buy with a US$89.00 target versus US$56.6, or 57% indicated upside. Ero Copper is Neutral with a US$33.00 target versus US$27.4, or 21% upside; Hudbay is Buy with a C$37.00 target versus C$31.8, or 16% upside; Vale is Neutral with a US$16.00 target versus US$14.6, or 10% upside. Among other mining names, First Quantum is Buy with a C$48.00 target and 24% upside, SQM is Neutral with a US$82.00 target and 22% upside, while CSN Mineração is Sell with a R$3.80 target and -34% downside. In steel, Ternium is Buy with a US$59.00 target and 19% upside, and Usiminas is Buy with a R$10.00 target and 32% upside. In pulp and paper, Suzano is Buy with a R$53.00 target and 23% upside, while Copec is Sell with a CLP6,057 target and -4% downside. Commodity and currency assumptions are central to the analysis. Spot copper was US$13,870/t, compared with Goldman Sachs forecasts of US$13,383/t for 2026E, US$13,800/t for 2027E and US$13,700/t for 2028E. Spot iron ore was US$94/t versus forecasts of US$102/t, US$99/t and US$96/t for 2026E–2028E. Spot lithium carbonate was US$18,405/t, versus US$19,254/t in 2026E, US$19,427/t in 2027E and US$19,867/t in 2028E. The report also forecasts USD/BRL at 5.18 in 2026E, 5.28 in 2027E and 5.37 in 2028E; USD/MXN at 17.52, 17.73 and 17.97; and USD/CLP at 912, 937 and 942. The report explicitly contrasts Goldman Sachs estimates with outcomes based on current spot commodity prices and FX. This comparison shows how valuation, free-cash-flow yield, revenue, EBITDA and cash flow depend on the assumed price deck. It also applies ±10% commodity-price scenarios and shows the resulting changes in valuation and operating metrics. The sensitivity analysis is particularly relevant for commodity-exposed miners, with separate scenarios for iron ore, copper, gold and battery-grade lithium carbonate; it also illustrates that the effect differs by each company’s commodity mix and production profile. Valuation is assessed using Price/NAV, forward EV/EBITDA, FY27 free-cash-flow yield and dividend yield, alongside one-year-forward historical EV/EBITDA trading comparisons. Goldman Sachs also compares its operating forecasts with Visible Alpha consensus. Examples of the divergence include First Quantum, where Goldman Sachs forecasts 2027 revenue of US$8.226bn, EBITDA of US$3.356bn and free cash flow of US$1.123bn, compared with consensus of US$9.577bn, US$4.498bn and US$1.890bn. For Aura Minerals, Goldman Sachs forecasts 2027 revenue of US$1.529bn and EBITDA of US$982m, versus consensus of US$1.905bn and US$1.414bn. These forecast gaps help explain why the report presents both valuation and commodity-scenario outputs rather than relying on current spot prices alone. The analysis includes stated modelling exclusions: Capstone Copper does not include Santo Domingo, and Hudbay Minerals does not include Copper World. First Quantum is also shown both excluding and including Cobre Panama in relevant comparisons, underscoring that project scope can materially change the displayed operating and valuation outlooks.
Analysis framework
Goldman Sachs first sets ratings, share prices, target prices and 12-month upside or downside for the coverage universe. It then applies its commodity and FX forecast deck, compares those assumptions with spot prices, tests ±10% commodity-price changes, and evaluates resulting EBITDA, free cash flow, NAV and forward EV/EBITDA. Finally, it compares selected company forecasts with Visible Alpha consensus and historical trading multiples.
Methodology notes
Price/NAV comparison
The report compares share prices with net asset value to assess relative valuation across the covered resource equities.
Forward EV/EBITDA and historical one-year-forward EV/EBITDA
The report compares companies using forecast enterprise value relative to EBITDA and places current forward multiples in a historical trading context.
Commodity-price and production sensitivity analysis
The report varies commodity prices, compares spot with the Goldman Sachs price deck, and links those changes to company revenue, EBITDA, cash flow and valuation.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Aura Minerals (AUGO)Buy-rated gold producer with the highest indicated upside in the displayed coverage table.
- Strengths
- US$89.00 target versus US$56.6 share price; 57% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Goldman Sachs’ 2027 revenue and EBITDA forecasts are below consensus.
- Comparison
- 2027 EBITDA forecast of US$982m versus US$1.414bn consensus.
- Risks
- Gold-price sensitivity is explicitly analysed.
- Ero Copper (ERO)Neutral-rated copper and gold producer.
- Strengths
- US$33.00 target versus US$27.4 share price; 21% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Neutral rating despite indicated upside.
- Comparison
- The report compares Goldman Sachs and spot-price valuation outcomes.
- Risks
- Copper and gold price sensitivity is explicitly analysed.
- Hudbay Minerals (HBM.TO)Buy-rated copper, silver and gold producer.
- Strengths
- C$37.00 target versus C$31.8 share price; 16% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Copper World is excluded from the analysis.
- Comparison
- 2027 EBITDA forecast of US$1.897bn versus US$2.069bn consensus.
- Risks
- Commodity-price outcomes depend on the stated project-scope exclusion.
- Vale (VALE)Neutral-rated iron-ore, copper and nickel producer.
- Strengths
- US$16.00 target versus US$14.6 share price; 10% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Neutral rating.
- Comparison
- The report presents Goldman Sachs versus spot-price valuation and forecast outcomes.
- Risks
- Iron-ore, copper and nickel price sensitivity is embedded in the scenario analysis.
- SQM (SQM)Neutral-rated lithium producer.
- Strengths
- US$82.00 target versus US$67.0 share price; 22% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Neutral rating.
- Comparison
- Assessed against Goldman Sachs lithium-price forecasts and spot lithium prices.
- Risks
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate price sensitivity is explicitly analysed.
- Ternium (TX)Buy-rated steel producer.
- Strengths
- US$59.00 target versus US$49.7 share price; 19% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Operating forecasts remain linked to regional steel-price and FX assumptions.
- Comparison
- 2027 EBITDA forecast of US$3.100bn versus US$2.979bn consensus.
- Risks
- Steel-price sensitivity is reflected in the commodity and scenario analysis.
- Suzano (SUZB3.SA)Buy-rated pulp-and-paper company.
- Strengths
- R$53.00 target versus R$43.1 share price; 23% indicated upside.
- Weaknesses
- Pulp-price and FX assumptions remain important to earnings.
- Comparison
- The report benchmarks forecast financials against consensus.
- Risks
- Pulp-price sensitivity is reflected in the forecast deck.
- Copec (COPEC.SN)Sell-rated pulp, forestry and fuel company.
- Weaknesses
- CLP6,057 target versus CLP6,342.0 share price; -4% indicated downside.
- Comparison
- Included in the pulp-and-paper valuation and forecast comparison.
- Risks
- Pulp, forestry and fuel price exposure is reflected in the coverage analysis.
- CSN Mineração (CMIN3.SA)Sell-rated iron-ore producer.
- Weaknesses
- R$3.80 target versus R$5.7 share price; -34% indicated downside and -19% FY27 FCF yield.
- Comparison
- The report compares Goldman Sachs and spot-price valuation outcomes.
- Risks
- Iron-ore price sensitivity is explicitly analysed.
Key data
- Aura Minerals target price and upsideUS$89.00 target; US$56.6 share price; 57% upsideBuy-rated as of August 3, 2026.
- Ero Copper target price and upsideUS$33.00 target; US$27.4 share price; 21% upsideNeutral-rated as of August 3, 2026.
- Copper forecastUS$13,383/t in 2026E; US$13,800/t in 2027E; US$13,700/t in 2028ESpot price was US$13,870/t.
- Iron ore forecastUS$102/t in 2026E; US$99/t in 2027E; US$96/t in 2028E61% iron ore; spot price was US$94/t.
- Lithium carbonate forecastUS$19,254/t in 2026E; US$19,427/t in 2027E; US$19,867/t in 2028ESpot battery-grade lithium carbonate price was US$18,405/t.
- First Quantum 2027 Goldman Sachs vs consensus EBITDAUS$3.356bn vs US$4.498bnGoldman Sachs estimate is 25% below Visible Alpha consensus.
- Aura Minerals 2027 Goldman Sachs vs consensus EBITDAUS$982m vs US$1.414bnGoldman Sachs estimate is 31% below Visible Alpha consensus.
Impact & implications
The report indicates that the investment cases across the coverage universe depend heavily on the commodity-price and FX assumptions used. Its scenario tables show that a move away from the Goldman Sachs commodity deck toward spot prices, or a further ±10% price move, can materially alter EBITDA, free cash flow, valuation multiples and implied equity value.
What to watch
- Goldman Sachs’ commodity-price and FX forecasts relative to spot prices.
- The effect of ±10% moves in iron ore, copper, gold and battery-grade lithium carbonate on EBITDA and valuation.
- Forecast gaps between Goldman Sachs and Visible Alpha consensus, particularly for First Quantum and Aura Minerals.
- Whether excluded projects—Santo Domingo for Capstone Copper and Copper World for Hudbay—are incorporated in future analysis.