Goldman Sachs Latin American Metals, Mining, Pulp and Paper Coverage Summary: Comparison of Multiple Ratings, Forecasts, and Spot Price Scenarios

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs coverage summary of Latin American metals, mining, pulp, and paper companies published in July 2026, with prices based on July 17, 2026. The report covers copper, iron ore, gold, steel, lithium, pulp, and paper, and summarizes company ratings, GS forecasts, spot price scenarios, relative performance, valuation multiples, FCF yields, dividend yields, EBITDA sensitivity, FCF yield and production growth, Price/NAV and EV/EBITDA, as well as differences between GS forecasts and market consensus estimates.

Core views

The report's core view is not a single-company investment recommendation, but a comparison of the coverage universe using a common valuation and commodity price framework. The Buy list includes Aura Minerals, Grupo Mexico, First Quantum Minerals, Gerdau, HudBay Minerals, Suzano, Ternium, Vale, and Usiminas; Sell ratings are concentrated in COPEC, CSN, and CSN Mineração; Neutral ratings include Capstone Copper, Dexco, CMPC, Ero Copper, Klabin, Southern Copper, and SQM. The report shows that commodity prices, foreign exchange, production growth, and capital structure have significant effects on FY26-FY29 valuation and cash flow sensitivity.

Analysis framework

The analysis uses a cross-sectional coverage comparison approach: it first lists company ratings, then compares EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, EBITDA, free cash flow, net debt/EBITDA, and other metrics using GS commodity and foreign exchange forecasts, spot price assumptions, and scenarios involving a 10% upward or downward change in commodity prices. It then assesses relative attractiveness using historical one-year forward EV/EBITDA, Price/NAV, differences between GS and consensus estimates, production growth, and FCF yield.

Methodology notes

• Valuation and scenario analysisGS forecasts vs spot prices and FX

  Comparison of GS forecasts with spot prices and foreign exchange scenarios

  The report compares GS price forecasts with spot commodity prices and foreign exchange assumptions to assess changes in EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, EBITDA, free cash flow, and leverage for covered companies under different price environments.

• Sensitivity analysisSpot +/-10% commodity price scenario

  Commodity price scenarios with a 10% upward or downward change

  The report shows the impact on operating and cash flow metrics for relevant companies when spot prices of key commodities, including iron ore, gold, copper, and battery-grade lithium carbonate, move 10% upward or downward.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile rankings

  GS Factor Profile compares individual stocks with the market and industry peers based on growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile rankings. Growth is based on forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial returns are based on ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; and valuation multiples include P/E, P/B, P/D, EV/EBITDA, and EV/FCF.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Probability score for acquisition targets

  Goldman Sachs uses an M&A Rank from 1 to 3 to assess the probability that a covered company will become an acquisition target: 1 represents high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability. Companies ranked 1 or 2 may have an M&A component incorporated into their target prices.

• Data toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database, providing detailed financial statement history, forecasts, and ratios for in-depth single-company analysis and cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Iron ore and Vale, CSN Mineração

  Iron ore price scenarios directly affect the EBITDA, free cash flow, EV/EBITDA, and net debt/EBITDA of the relevant companies.

  Strengths

  Vale is rated Buy, and the report demonstrates its cash flow and valuation sensitivity through FY26 valuation and spot price scenarios.

  Weaknesses

  CSN Mineração is rated Sell, indicating an inferior relative risk-reward profile compared with Buy-rated stocks.

  Comparison

  The report compares iron ore-related companies using GS forecasts, spot prices, and 10% upward and downward price scenarios.

  Risks

  A decline in iron ore prices, adverse foreign exchange movements, lower-than-expected cash flow, and rising leverage.

• Copper and Southern Copper, Grupo Mexico, First Quantum Minerals, Ero Copper, HudBay Minerals, Capstone Copper

  Copper prices are a core driver of earnings and cash flow for covered copper mining companies.

  Strengths

  Grupo Mexico, First Quantum Minerals, and HudBay Minerals are rated Buy; an upside copper price scenario could increase EBITDA and FCF.

  Weaknesses

  Southern Copper and Ero Copper are rated Neutral, and Capstone Copper is also excluded from the Buy list.

  Comparison

  The report specifically notes that Capstone Copper excludes Santo Domingo and HudBay Minerals excludes Copper World, indicating that project scope affects cross-sectional comparisons.

  Risks

  Copper price volatility, differences in project scope, failure to achieve production growth expectations, and multiple contraction.

• Gold and Aura Minerals

  Changes in gold prices affect Aura Minerals' earnings, cash flow, and valuation.

  Strengths

  Aura Minerals is rated Buy, and the report includes it in the gold sensitivity analysis.

  Weaknesses

  A downside gold price scenario could compress FCF yield and increase valuation pressure.

  Comparison

  The report includes gold in the 10% upward and downward commodity price scenarios.

  Risks

  A decline in gold prices, rising costs, and lower-than-forecast free cash flow.

• Steel and Gerdau, CSN, Ternium, Usiminas

  The steel cycle, prices, and production affect EBITDA and cash flow for the relevant companies.

  Strengths

  Gerdau, Ternium, and Usiminas are rated Buy.

  Weaknesses

  CSN is rated Sell, indicating weaker relative investment attractiveness.

  Comparison

  The report compares steel coverage companies using EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and cash flow metrics.

  Risks

  Weaker steel prices, slowing demand, cost pressures, and negative free cash flow.

• Lithium and SQM

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices are an important earnings variable for SQM and other lithium-related companies.

  Strengths

  An upside lithium price scenario could improve EBITDA and FCF.

  Weaknesses

  SQM is rated Neutral, indicating that the report does not assign an explicitly positive rating.

  Comparison

  The report lists Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate in its sensitivity analysis.

  Risks

  Declining lithium prices, a looser supply-demand balance, and downward valuation multiple revisions.

• Pulp and paper and Suzano, Klabin, CMPC, COPEC, Dexco

  Pulp prices, foreign exchange, and the cash flow cycle affect the valuation and leverage of pulp and paper companies.

  Strengths

  Suzano is rated Buy, and the report shows its cash flow and valuation changes under spot price scenarios.

  Weaknesses

  COPEC is rated Sell; Klabin, CMPC, and Dexco are rated Neutral.

  Comparison

  The report compares Suzano, Klabin, CMPC, COPEC, and Dexco using EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, EBITDA, and net debt/EBITDA.

  Risks

  Pulp price volatility, negative free cash flow, elevated leverage, and foreign exchange movements.

Key data

• Report dateJuly 2026; file date 2026-07-20The report states that it was published in July 2026, with prices based on July 17, 2026.
• Price reference datePriced as of July 17, 2026Disclosed in the cover information.
• Buy-rated stocksAUGO, GMEX, FQM, GGBR, HBM, SUZB, TX, VALE, USIMListed on the coverage summary page.
• Sell-rated stocksCOPEC, CSN, CMINListed on the coverage summary page.
• Neutral-rated stocksCS, DXCO, CMPC, ERO, KLBN, SCCO, SQMListed on the coverage summary page.
• Core valuation metricsFY26 EV/EBITDA, FY26 FCF Yield, FY26 DIV YieldUsed repeatedly in the GS forecasts and scenario pages.
• Commodity sensitivity variablesIron Ore, Gold, Copper, Battery-Grade Lithium CarbonateListed on the EBITDA sensitivity page.
• Production growth metricProduction CAGR 25-29Mentioned in the FCF Yield vs Production growth section.
• Disclosure reference dateAs of July 19, 2026Disclosed in the Disclosure Appendix.
• Goldman Sachs global equity rating coverage3,104 equity securitiesAs of July 1, 2026, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had assigned investment ratings to 3,104 stocks.

Impact & implications

The report is better suited as a cross-sectional dashboard for the Latin American resources and pulp and paper coverage pool than as an in-depth single-company report. Its main implication for investors is to identify which companies experience more pronounced valuation compression, FCF yield improvement, or EBITDA sensitivity under different commodity price scenarios. It also indicates that conclusions may differ significantly with changes in spot prices, foreign exchange, or project scope.

Risks

• Commodity price volatility can materially change EBITDA, free cash flow, and valuation multiples.
• Changes in foreign exchange assumptions may affect the comparability and cash flow performance of companies denominated in BRL or USD.
• Differences in project scope affect comparability; for example, Capstone Copper excludes Santo Domingo and HudBay Minerals excludes Copper World.
• Some companies may experience negative free cash flow or high net debt/EBITDA under spot or downside scenarios.
• As a multi-company coverage summary, the report lacks standalone target prices, current prices, and complete investment rationales for some companies.
• Goldman Sachs discloses that it may have investment banking or other business relationships with covered companies; investors should assess potential conflicts of interest together with the disclosed information.

What to watch

• Deviations of spot prices for iron ore, copper, gold, and battery-grade lithium carbonate from GS forecasts.
• Changes in FY26 EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and net debt/EBITDA under different scenarios.
• The degree of alignment between 2025-2029 production CAGR and FCF yield.
• Whether differences between GS forecasts and market consensus estimates widen or converge.
• Whether projects such as Capstone Copper's Santo Domingo and HudBay Minerals' Copper World are incorporated into subsequent models.
• Whether Buy, Neutral, and Sell stocks in the rating list change as commodity price and cash flow forecasts are revised.