Institutional Research

JPMorgan's conference takeaways point to sustained AI-driven demand for hyperscale networking, optical interconnects and related capacity. Cisco cites improving visibility and broad portfolio opportunities, while Coherent expects growth, margin expansion and capacity investment to accelerate.

• Cisco expects FY27 revenue growth of about 15% year on year, supported by hyperscalers, price increases and its core business.
• Cisco says hyperscaler bookings understate demand because commitments beyond 90 days remain in backlog.
• Coherent sees two optical-growth drivers: data-center expansion and scale-up networks shifting from copper to optical.
• Coherent's September-quarter guide implies more than 50% year-on-year pro forma growth, with its first $3 billion revenue quarter expected before FY27 ends.
• Coherent says available supply, rather than demand, is its main growth constraint and is quadrupling InP capacity over 24 months.
• Coherent targets gross margin above 42%, aided by pricing, richer product mix and lower unit costs from 6-inch InP wafers.

UBS retains Buy and its €80 target price, expecting improving automotive, industrial and datacenter demand to lift earnings and margins. Its FY27 EPS estimate is about 20% above consensus.

• UBS expects Q4 revenue growth of about 12% quarter-on-quarter, above normal seasonality and consensus expectations.
• FY27 diluted EPS of US$3.16 is 19.9% above consensus of US$2.63.
• Datacenter revenue is forecast to reach about US$2.5bn in 2027E, or about 14% of group sales.
• Gross margin is expected to exceed 40% by Q3 2027E.
• The stock trades on 17x and 11x 2027E and 2028E P/E, respectively, versus an approximately 18x historical average forward multiple.

Global distributor pricing rose 1% month-on-month and 16% year-on-year while inventory fell 3% month-on-month. UBS believes this combination raises the chance of channel restocking in H2 2026.

• The tracker covers 118 global distributors and finds broad pricing strength.
• Average pricing is up 16% year-on-year, while total inventory declined 3% month-on-month.
• Diode inventory fell 17% month-on-month, the largest driver of the aggregate inventory decline.
• MCU pricing declined 1% month-on-month but remained 5% higher year-on-year.
• UBS identifies Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics as preferred exposures to a potential channel-fill dynamic.

The report argues Starlink can move beyond legacy satellite broadband by winning underserved households and meaningful share from non-fiber broadband. Its preferred Scenario C implies roughly 93 million to 153 million residential subscribers and about $27 billion to $65 billion of annual residential subscription revenue.

• Starlink grew from effectively zero subscribers in 2020 to roughly 12 million by Q2 2026.
• Bernstein expects consumer/SMB broadband revenue of about $64 billion in 2031, modestly below its prior $66 billion estimate.
• Scenario C assumes 10%-20% penetration of addressable non-fiber broadband, without broad fiber displacement.
• V3 satellites are expected to add substantial capacity, although dense-market constraints remain relevant.
• Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating on SpaceX with a $248 target price.

Wafer and cell prices fell in September as overseas shipment demand softened, while glass pricing and reduced production supported glass profitability. Goldman Sachs remains cautious on polysilicon despite planned October output cuts, citing weak demand and excess inventory.

• Wafer and cell prices declined 8% and 6% month-to-date in September.
• Glass prices rose 11% month-to-date after a 6% production cut.
• Global module demand fell 21% year-on-year to 32GW in August.
• The production-to-demand ratio worsened to 118% in September from 111% in August.
• Goldman Sachs prefers Maxwell, Hangzhou First, Xinyi Solar and Longi, while staying cautious on rod polysilicon.

Goldman Sachs says limited summit deliverables, centered on a two-month trade-truce extension, matched already-low expectations. Near-term restraint remains possible, but critical-minerals, export-control, investment and Taiwan issues remain unsettled.

• The trade truce was extended from November to January 2027, a shorter extension than expected.
• The countries announced trade and investment boards and an AI-risk dialogue beginning in November.
• The report expects a further 7.5% US Section 301 tariff on China, with limited export impact because 15 other economies may also face the increase.
• Rare-earth supply, wider export controls, investment restrictions and Taiwan received little substantive resolution.

UBS says MBX's once-monthly obesity candidate MBX-4291 could combine competitive week-12 weight loss with improved gastrointestinal tolerability. The firm retains a US$90 target, anchored by the Phase III PTH program and additional obesity-pipeline optionality.

• UBS seeks approximately 6-9% weight loss at week 12, with 7-9% viewed as the stronger outcome.
• The report expects GI-event rates below or at least comparable with tirzepatide.
• A gradual PK profile and delayed Tmax of approximately 13-14 days underpin the potential tolerability and monthly-dosing differentiation.
• UBS values MBX using a 2x multiple on probability-adjusted 2035 sales, supported by public comparables, transactions and DCF.
• The Q4 Phase I Part C readout is identified as a key de-risking catalyst.

The report expects China semiconductor capital expenditure, especially memory investment, to drive NAURA's orders and revenue growth. It forecasts 3Q26E and 4Q26E revenue growth of 50% and 8% quarter on quarter, respectively.

• China WFE spending is forecast to rise 13% in 2026E, 20% in 2027E and 15% in 2028E.
• NAURA revenue is forecast at Rmb50.9bn in 2026E, Rmb65.6bn in 2027E and Rmb81.1bn in 2028E.
• New ICP etchers, tube-type ALD tools, hybrid-bonding tools and TSV plating tools are progressing into customer use and scaled supply.
• The 12-month price target is Rmb1,200.00 versus a Rmb653.06 price as of 24 September 2026.

The report introduces a three-model real-time framework for tracking China’s official GDP growth as data arrive. It finds that recent activity softness has increased downside risk to the Q3 forecast, though anticipated policy support, better weather and stronger quarter-end activity could lift the outcome.

• Official GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1.
• The tracker currently estimates 4.1% year-on-year Q3 growth, versus Goldman Sachs’ 4.4% forecast, lowered from 4.6%.
• An equal-weighted combination of PMI, bridge-indicator and production-side models produces the lowest forecast error.
• September PMI and trade releases are key upcoming inputs for reassessing the Q3 estimate.

Goldman Sachs keeps Compal Neutral while raising its 12-month target price to NT$46.1 from NT$41.3. AI server shipments, capacity expansion and a move from L6 motherboards to L10/L11 systems are expected to support growth, but PC demand and higher component costs remain constraints.

• August revenue of NT$67bn was 20% below Goldman Sachs’ estimate as PC shipments fell 22% month on month to 1.4m units.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts 3Q26E revenue growth of 1% QoQ and 4Q26E growth of 16% QoQ.
• 2026-28E net-income estimates were reduced by 5%/1%/1%, while the 12-month target price rose to NT$46.1.
• The target price uses a 14.7x 2027E P/E multiple, up from 13.1x.