Institutional Research

UBS argues that concern over new optical-fiber capacity is excessive because equipment, know-how and customer-verification constraints delay effective supply. It raises 2026-28E earnings by 116-158% and lifts its YOFC-H target price to HK$330.

• UBS expects tight high-end fiber supply-demand conditions through 2027-28E.
• 2026-28E earnings forecasts rise 116-158% to Rmb9.1bn, Rmb15.6bn and Rmb19.1bn.
• YOFC-H target price rises to HK$330 from HK$290 despite a lower target P/E multiple of 16x versus 30x.
• UBS views YOFC-H's 8-9x 2027E P/E as well below Chinese and global peers' 12-36x range.

The report expects HARMONi-GI1 biliary tract cancer data on 25 October to support ivonescimab beyond lung cancer, with an OS hazard ratio of 0.6 or below seen as a credible positive outcome. J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight and a HK$125 Dec-2027 target price.

• Akeso reported that HARMONi-GI1 met its overall-survival primary endpoint in August.
• The ESMO’26 late-breaking presentation is scheduled for 25 October.
• J.P. Morgan estimates a potential overall-survival hazard ratio of 0.6 or below if Phase 2 benefit is reproduced.
• Upcoming catalysts also include the 14 November PDUFA and HARMONi-3 squamous-cohort data.
• The HK$125 target is based on a DCF valuation.

Bank of America’s expert-call takeaways position high-bandwidth flash as a possible capacity tier alongside HBM for read-intensive inference workloads rather than a replacement for HBM in AI training. Sandisk is identified as the clearest direct beneficiary, subject to successful execution.

• HBF is viewed as an inference-oriented complement to HBM, not a training-memory replacement.
• The initial use case is storing read-intensive model weights, KV cache, prefill data and indexes.
• No working production devices have yet provided measured evidence on power, bandwidth, latency or endurance.
• Initial PCIe-based higher-bandwidth flash products could emerge in late 2027.
• Controllers, accelerator interconnects, thermal management, packaging and customer qualification are central milestones.
• The report calls Sandisk the clearest direct HBF beneficiary, while emphasizing execution risk.

UBS says China property shares have rallied on expectations of a mortgage-rate subsidy before the National Day holiday. The firm sees support for demand, particularly if mortgage costs approach rental yields, but flags important exclusions and uncertainty around the policy's duration.

• China property shares had risen 10% since 18 September 2026 on expectations of policy easing.
• A 40-100bp cut could reduce the first-home mortgage rate from 3.05% to 2.05%-2.65%.
• UBS argues that excluding existing mortgages and secondary-home transactions would materially limit policy impact.
• A housing provident fund rate cut could be more durable and broader than a temporary mortgage subsidy.
• Developers with low P/B, including Vanke, Longfor, Yuexiu and Seazen, may benefit from a subsidy.

BofA’s survey finds clinical decision support becoming a routine, multi-tool part of physician workflows. The report views Wolters Kluwer’s incumbent position as more resilient than its valuation implies, while Doximity faces uncertain monetization, advertising pressure and lower margins.

• Physician AI use reached 81% in 2026, up from 66% in late 2024 and 38% in 2023.
• More than 80% of survey respondents regard CDS as very important, and roughly two thirds use it daily.
• Nearly 90% of respondents use UpToDate, while about half use OpenEvidence and 33% use Doximity Ask.
• Only 10% of all users and 11% of UpToDate users believe OpenEvidence will fully replace existing CDS tools.
• Wolters Kluwer trades at about 12x P/E, roughly a 50% discount to its five-year average; BofA reiterates Buy.
• Doximity’s enterprise opportunity is offset by competition for physician attention and pharma advertising budgets; BofA reiterates Underperform.

JPMorgan sees Phancy benefiting as China’s fragmented AI hardware and model landscape raises the value of scheduling, optimization and model-aware serving. Its HK$50 target is based on 15x 2028E EV/EBITDA, with API growth, margin improvement and capital productivity central to the thesis.

• Initiated at Overweight with a HK$50 Dec-2027 target versus a HK$27.60 price on 23 September 2026.
• JPMorgan forecasts 2026-28E revenue CAGR of 36% and 2028E adjusted net profit of Rmb0.9bn.
• API revenue was Rmb464mn in 1H26, up 861% YoY; JPMorgan expects API gross margin to approach about 30% over the next two years.
• The 2028E adjusted net-profit forecast is 37% above consensus, driven by stronger API growth, margin improvement and operating leverage.
• Key proof points are utilization, API gross margin, gross profit per compute unit, CFO, FCF and incremental ROIC.

BofA finds that Vale, Rio Tinto and Glencore generally imply copper prices below spot and copper pure plays, while BHP is already priced at a premium. The next valuation step depends on turning copper project pipelines into visible production, earnings and cash flow.

• On P/NAV, diversified miners trade at average implied-copper discounts of 9% to spot and 6% to copper pure plays.
• On EV/EBITDA, the average discounts are 5% to spot and 3% to pure-play peers.
• BHP is the exception, with copper contributing 54% of FY26 underlying EBITDA and implied copper values above spot.
• Vale has the largest relative commodity-mix change potential if its brownfield copper pipeline is delivered.
• Feasibility, permitting, construction approvals and first production are identified as key re-rating catalysts.

A meeting with Dell COO Jeff Clarke strengthened Morgan Stanley's appreciation of the bull case: Agentic AI could structurally expand infrastructure demand, extend component scarcity and support margins. The firm nevertheless keeps its $511 target and Equal-weight rating while it assesses the duration and pull-forward risk of the buildout.

• Dell estimates inference-token generation could rise 87x by 2030, supporting a larger compute and storage addressable market.
• Morgan Stanley's $511 target uses 14x FY28 EPS of $36.47.
• The firm now assigns a higher probability to its $756 bull case over the next 12 months.
• Key uncertainty is whether AI infrastructure demand endures or proves to be pulled forward ahead of a CY27 rollover.

Citi assesses whether Meta’s Muse AI-agent platform could make electricity shopping easier and undermine independent power producers’ retail businesses. It expects near-term margin pressure across the sector but considers NRG best positioned among large players.

• Meta’s Muse could let customers compare retail-electricity providers and contract tenures more easily and frequently.
• Citi expects smaller retailers to face greater margin erosion, while larger operators with supply scale and hedging capabilities may gain share.
• NRG’s generation ownership, scale advantages and bundled offering are cited as structural defenses.
• Citi values NRG at $180 using blended SOTP, EV/EBITDA and P/E approaches, plus $20 for potential data-center and interconnection value.

Bank of America’s Day 2 conference roundup identifies growth visibility in AI data centers, cooling, automation, robotics and selected consumer, industrial and healthcare names. The report also stresses that many opportunities depend on order conversion, margin delivery, policy conditions and capital discipline.

• AI-related capacity, optical interconnect, liquid cooling and cloud demand are recurring growth themes.
• Several companies expect stronger 2027 earnings as capacity ramps, utilization improves or new businesses scale.
• Consumer and industrial demand remains uneven, with cost inflation, competition and execution risks frequently cited.
• The report retains company-specific ratings rather than presenting a single portfolio recommendation.