Institutional Research

Goldman Sachs expects AI server racks, higher ASPs and continued customer deployment to lift 3Q26 and 4Q26 revenue growth materially. It raises 2026-28 earnings estimates but keeps its NT$487 12-month target price and Neutral rating.

• 3Q26E and 4Q26E revenue growth is projected at 81% and 79% YoY, versus 60% and 41% in 1Q26 and 2Q26.
• September and October revenue are forecast at about NT$52bn each, up 87% YoY.
• 2026-28E revenue forecasts rise 3%, 3% and 4%, while net-income forecasts rise 2%, 6% and 8%.
• 2026 capex is forecast to increase 143% YoY to NT$2.8bn as Gigabyte expands capacity for AI-server demand and diversified production.

The report argues that rapid early Muse adoption, Meta’s distribution and infrastructure, and several future revenue paths could make the consumer agent a material contributor by 2030. Deutsche Bank raises its target price to $820 from $750 while retaining a Buy rating.

• Muse recorded more than 3 million US installs in its first 16 days and ranked No. 1 in iOS Productivity.
• Deutsche Bank estimates a $2.5-$5.5 trillion US agentic-AI addressable opportunity by 2030.
• Its scenarios imply $2.4 billion to $36.3 billion of Muse revenue in 2030, or 0.5%-7.8% of Meta revenue.
• The target price rises to $820 from $750, based on 25x FY27 EPS versus 23x previously.

The report lowers USD/JPY forecasts as Japanese policy becomes more supportive, expects continued CHF weakness, and retains a medium-term constructive carry case for MXN despite near-term diesel-export risks. It also frames Brazil's election as a potentially significant but not necessarily durable driver of BRL.

• USD/JPY forecasts were cut to 158, 155 and 150 for the 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons.
• Faster Bank of Japan hikes, intervention risk and possible domestic portfolio reallocation strengthen the case for long JPY.
• Goldman Sachs expects EUR/CHF at 0.95, 0.96 and 0.97 in 3, 6 and 12 months, versus 0.92 previously at each horizon.
• A possible US diesel-export ban is identified as a near-term risk for MXN and other Latin American currencies.
• For BRL, USD/BRL at 4.80 would imply full compression of the residual 2024 fiscal premium, while 5.80 would reflect a December 2024-like negative fiscal premium.

UBS remains patient on outright duration despite seeing yields as high versus fundamentals, preferring forward curve steepeners and long-end swap-spread steepeners. It expects Treasury issuance pressures to intensify from 2027 while buybacks and Fed purchases temporarily cushion duration supply.

• UBS forecasts 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.50% and 4.80%, respectively, in Q4 2026.
• Net coupon issuance is projected at $1.22tn in 2026 and $1.26tn in 2027.
• Treasury duration supply is projected to remain stable in 2027 before rising $133bn to $2.75tn in 10-year equivalents in 2028.
• The report favors 2-year-forward 2s/10s steepeners and 5s/30s swap-spread curve steepeners.
• UBS is neutral on TIPS and targets 10-year breakevens at 235bp at year-end.

Bank of America expects a below-consensus 60k September payroll gain, but argues that seasonal payback rather than a weakening labor market will drive the headline. It maintains a call for two further 25bp Fed hikes in October and December as growth stays solid and inflation remains above target.

• September payrolls are forecast at 60k, versus 162k in August, while underlying job growth is estimated at 100k+.
• August PCE inflation is forecast at 0.4% m/m headline and 0.3% m/m core; methodological revisions should lower year-on-year readings by about 0.2pp.
• 3Q GDP tracking remains 3.0% q/q SAAR, supported by consumption and investment despite softer industrial production.
• The report expects two additional 25bp Fed hikes in October and December 2026.

Conference feedback supports a gradual improvement in German activity and a strong CAPEX cycle, led by defence, data centres, semiconductors and automation. The report remains positive on Germany but highlights persistent pressure on legacy autos, chemicals and consumer demand.

• German fiscal stimulus is expected to add about 0.7 percentage points to GDP in 2026 and 0.5 points in 2027.
• Investment growth is projected at 13% in 2026, with data centres, semiconductors and utilities representing almost 40% of total CAPEX.
• Consensus expects 17% German equity EPS growth in 2027 versus 9% for the STOXX 600.
• The DAX trades at about 15x forward earnings, a 25% discount to the US, but German valuation dispersion is unusually wide.
• Goldman Sachs prefers Fiscal, Defence, HALO/CAPEX and German Domestic baskets rather than broad index exposure.

Bernstein expands its annual private-company ranking from the Disruptor 25 to the Disruptor 30 as rising medical costs, access constraints and AI broaden the opportunity for healthcare innovation. The report identifies AI-driven care automation, value-based care, pharmacy disruption, access models and new managed-care models as the key themes.

• AI care extension and automation is identified as the report's most disruptive long-term healthcare theme.
• Bernstein estimates that AI-enabled care extension could support $250-$500+ billion of annual provider revenue and more than $100 billion of annual value creation.
• Value-based care could reach roughly 25% of the market over the next decade, from about 15% in full-risk VBC today.
• The top five 2026 disruptors are Abridge, PANTHERx Rare, Aledade, Thyme Care and Viz.ai.
• Providers are expected to benefit most from AI-led efficiency and margin improvement, while managed-care impacts are expected to be broadly neutral but differentiated by execution.

The weekly argues that the dollar remains technically supported but requires selective implementation, while EM FX faces an uncomfortable rates-and-volatility backdrop. It highlights differentiated opportunities in AUD, JPY, EUR, selected Latin American currencies and relative-value trades.

• DXY is testing the strong end of its 96-102 range; a durable upside break would require renewed weakness outside the US.
• Rising EM FX option premia signal growing demand for downside protection but are not yet extreme enough to support a contrarian broad EM long.
• The report maintains EUR/USD forecasts of 1.15 at end-2026 and 1.20 at end-2027.
• BofA expects a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60% and recommends paying November RBA OIS.
• Technical analysis targets DXY at 102.50 for September-November, with a bullish bias while key supports hold.

The report maintains a modest overweight on agency MBS after rate volatility widened spreads, arguing that lower volatility, better investor positioning, relative value versus tight IG credit, and potential GSE buying should limit further weakness. It also updates structured-product relative-value views and 2026-27 ABS issuance forecasts.

• Current-coupon MBS OAS widened back to post-FOMC highs, but Goldman Sachs does not expect a return to the 55bp-plus OAS reached in 2023.
• The report's year-end 2026 current-coupon MBS OAS target remains 25bp.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have more than $110 billion of potential agency-MBS buying capacity under existing portfolio caps.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts 2026 ABS gross/net issuance of $278 billion/$60 billion and 2027 issuance of $287 billion/$73 billion.
• Preferred areas include 30-year FN MBS, 7.0% cap CMO floaters, agency CMBS relative to low-coupon MBS, and non-QM AAA RMBS.

Goldman Sachs remains constructive on selected emerging-market equities and procyclical sectors, supported by earnings revisions and relatively low valuations. The report flags Brazil’s October 4 first-round election and US 10-year yields above 5% as key near-term market drivers.

• MSCI EM gained 1.3% week on week, led by Korea (+4%) and Taiwan (+2%).
• MXEF traded at 9.9x forward P/E, 2.1 standard deviations below its 10-year average.
• Brazil equities remained more than 10% above mid-August levels ahead of the October 4 election.
• US 10-year yields rose 50bp over one month to 5.18%, an outsized 2.4-standard-deviation move.
• Goldman Sachs remains overweight Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, South Africa, Hungary and Greece.