Institutional Research

UBS expects supply-led CCL price increases and rising high-end AI CCL sales to lift Nan Ya Plastics' profitability sharply through 2027. Its NT$300.00 target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.

• CCL ASP is forecast to rise 90% in 2026E and 85% in 2027E.
• CCL operating margin is projected to expand from 4.1% in 2025 to 23% in 2026E and 30% in 2027E.
• High-end M6+ CCL is forecast to reach 25% of CCL revenue in 2027E, with ASPs 3-10x conventional FR4.
• UBS forecasts 2026E/2027E net profit 15%/23% above consensus.
• The report argues that the market underappreciates NYP's core CCL earnings because of concerns over petrochemicals.

A proposed Evonik acquisition could add more than 25% to BASF ex-Agricultural Solutions adjusted EPS under conservative assumptions. Bernstein nevertheless prefers BASF’s standalone value-creation opportunity, retaining Outperform while lowering its target price to €61 from €63.

• Base-case merger assumptions imply roughly 25%+ adjusted EPS accretion in years 1–3 after completion.
• The model assumes a 50% Evonik premium, 5% of Evonik sales in cost synergies, and no revenue synergies through 2030.
• A more Europe-focused portfolio, a lower potential valuation multiple, and execution risk could offset merger benefits.
• BASF’s 2028E Verbund EBITDA estimate is reduced by 1%; the price target falls from €63 to €61.

J.P. Morgan expects BMW's upcoming Capital Markets Day to address manufacturing restructuring, China stabilization and the path to restoring profitability. It retains an Overweight rating and €82.00 target price, while viewing the 8–10% long-term automotive-margin goal as unrealistic over the coming three years.

• The report expects BMW to focus on restoring an automotive operating margin of roughly 5% over the next 3–5 years.
• A roughly 5% margin could support more than €3.5bn of free cash flow and continued dividends and buybacks.
• BMW China production is expected to stabilize near 415,000 units as competition intensifies in FY27/28.
• J.P. Morgan sees a meaningful chance that BMW will need to reduce European capacity by around 15%.
• Neue Klasse, China stabilization and a flexible powertrain strategy remain central to the investment case.
• Downside risks are greater pricing pressure and limited ability to pass incremental EV costs through to customers.

UBS expects a constructive FY27 narrative, including roughly €4bn of datacenter revenue, but sees guidance and margins near consensus amid capacity, utilization and fab-ramp pressures. Its €64 price target is unchanged.

• FQ1 revenue is forecast to rise 1% quarter-on-quarter, versus consensus of -2%.
• UBS expects FY27 revenue guidance near €20bn and a 24% segment margin, close to consensus.
• FY27 EPS rises about 7% after UBS lifts its margin forecast to 24% from 22.5%.
• Datacenter revenue could reach roughly €4bn in FY27, including around €3.5bn from AI.
• The €64 target price is unchanged; UBS views valuation as balanced.

UBS expects improving AI-data-center fundamentals to support materially higher revenue and EPS through C2028, led by custom silicon, Microsoft Maia and networking content. It remains Buy-rated but cautions that crowded positioning and high Analyst Day expectations could create a near-term sell-the-news setup.

• Price target raised to US$335 from US$310 on higher C2028E non-GAAP EPS of US$12.16.
• UBS raises C2027 XPU-attach revenue to US$1.8bn from US$1.0bn and C2028 to US$5.1bn from US$3.6bn.
• C2028 revenue forecast rises 9.1% to US$29.926bn and non-GAAP EPS rises 12.0% to US$12.16.
• The report sees potential for roughly US$40-45bn revenue and mid- to high-teens EPS by C2030 if gross margin remains in the mid-50% range.
• Near-term expectations are elevated; UBS doubts Marvell will present EPS above US$20 at the event.

The report expects global lodging demand to recover toward roughly 4% long-run room-night growth after 3.6% in 2026, while limited hotel supply supports pricing, vacation rentals and asset-light hotel brands. APAC and Latin America are expected to lead regional growth.

• Bernstein forecasts 3.6% lodging-demand growth in 2026 versus a roughly 4% long-term rate.
• Hotel supply remains constrained by interest rates, construction costs and supply-chain disruption.
• Vacation-rental room nights are projected to grow around 8% through the end of the decade.
• Booking and Expedia are expected to account for 18% of online hotel room nights by 2030.
• Hilton, Marriott, Hyatt and IHG held only 8.5% of global hotel rooms in 2025, leaving scope for further share gains.

Bernstein's global battery weekly tracks new ESS supply agreements, Korean tender demand, manufacturing developments and fast-charging technologies. Many announced projects and commercial claims remain conditional on contracts, financing, customer adoption or production validation.

• EVE Energy's five-year framework with Fluence covers up to 206 GWh for 2027-31, though only 16 GWh is committed for 2027.
• South Korea's 1,180 MW centralized ESS tender is more than double the prior year's first-round offering.
• CATL began trial production at its planned 100 GWh Debrecen plant, but series production timing remains unannounced.
• Battery-cell costs shown in the tracker were US$59/kWh for LFP and US$76-80/kWh for NMC chemistries as of 25 September.
• Several solid-state, sodium-ion and ultra-fast-charging announcements remain at development, testing or planning stages.

The report argues that the three-month AI/technology stall has cleansed positioning while earnings, capex and monetization trends remain supportive. It favors semiconductors over software, while viewing much of the hyperscaler de-rating as already reflected in valuations.

• Semiconductor forward earnings rose 30% since June, while software saw almost no earnings uplift.
• J.P. Morgan maintains a bullish semiconductor stance following a pullback it considers healthy.
• Software and AI-cannibalization-exposed businesses are cheaply valued but may remain structural laggards.
• Mag-7 valuations have fallen to 10-year lows, though higher capex and weaker free cash flow justify part of the compression.
• The report expects equities to resume advancing after oil and rate volatility subsides and Q3 earnings arrive.

Higher Express weight growth, supportive air-cargo supply-demand conditions and contributions from other divisions lead UBS to raise forecasts. The firm nevertheless retains a Neutral rating as the target implies only limited upside.

• FY26/27 EBIT estimates rise to €7.06bn/€7.49bn, about 2% above company-compiled consensus.
• The 12-month price target increases to €59.50 from €54.50.
• Express weight growth and operating leverage drive the main earnings upgrade.
• UBS expects air-cargo pricing conditions to be more favourable than ocean freight in the medium term.
• DHL trades on 14.5x FY27 P/E, a roughly 5% FCF yield and a 3.7% dividend yield.

Weak Chinese household finances, property, employment and demographics are likely to keep luxury demand subdued. Bernstein cuts LVMH forecasts, modestly trims Hermès expectations, and continues to prefer Richemont for its jewellery strength and lower Mainland China exposure.

• China retail-sales growth was only 0.4% year on year in August, the fifth straight month at 1% or below.
• Bernstein sees Chinese property prices down about 40% on average since 2021 and youth unemployment at 18.9%.
• LVMH FY27E Fashion & Leather Goods organic-sales-growth forecast falls to 1.8% from 5.0%; target price is cut to €480.
• Richemont remains Bernstein’s top pick, supported by jewellery momentum and relatively low Mainland China exposure.