Institutional Research

Deutsche Bank sees gold demand and positioning conditions echoing the start of the 2022 bull market, while copper scarcity may require higher outright prices to rebalance the market. Palladium remains vulnerable as spot buying appears to be losing momentum amid continued CTA selling.

• Gold spot flows exceeded expectations across commercial, non-commercial and retail cohorts, with overall flows last at +25% of historical maximum.
• Chinese gold imports exceeded 1,000 tonnes year to date, while ETF inflows and the Shanghai premium remained strong.
• The report estimates CTAs are net short gold futures, creating potential buying capacity if prices rebound into December.
• Copper CTAs hold their largest estimated position on record, but Deutsche Bank sees little scope for a positioning washout and describes inventories as critically low.
• Palladium spot inflows slowed despite new multi-month price lows, which Deutsche Bank interprets as evidence of buying exhaustion.

Morgan Stanley says new retail Connectors, voice and wearable access, international expansion and additional devices strengthen Meta's early position in consumer AI agents. The institution retains Meta as a Top Pick and Overweight with a $775 price target.

• Muse added integrations with Walmart, Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, Gap and other retailers.
• Morgan Stanley identifies approximately $30tn of consumer spending as the main addressable market for agentic offerings.
• Muse Voice is expected in coming weeks, while Muse will also be integrated across Meta's latest AR glasses.
• Meta plans expansion beyond the US and Canada and introduced Apple-computer integration, a future email address and the Muse Charm device.
• New lightweight VR glasses will start at $1,299, weigh less than one-fifth as much as Quest 3 and launch in the spring.
• The $775 base-case target applies approximately 23x P/E to the average of $34 and $35 EPS estimates for 2027 and 2028.

Morgan Stanley sees Aurora Innovation at an execution and proof-of-concept inflection point after management raised its 2030 ambition to more than 30,000 trucks and over $5 billion of revenue. The firm reiterates Overweight and raises its bull-case target to $40, but retains an $18 base-case target after increasing its execution-risk haircut.

• Management's 2030 targets of more than 30,000 trucks and over $5 billion of revenue exceed Morgan Stanley's prior forecasts by more than 3x and 2x, respectively.
• New-lane launch time is expected to fall from roughly six weeks currently to six days, supporting faster network expansion.
• Third-party feedback from fleets, OEMs, hardware partners and insurer Apollo supports Aurora's safety, reliability and scalability claims.
• Long-term gross-margin guidance was reduced from 70% to more than 60%, while run-rate gross-margin breakeven shifted to 1H27.
• Morgan Stanley lifts its bull-case price target to $40 but raises the base-case execution haircut to 55%, leaving the $18 base-case target unchanged.

Julong Phase II is ramping up faster than Phase I and underpins the near-term copper delivery outlook despite cost and tax pressure. UBS retains Buy on Zijin Mining Group - H with a HK$57.80 target price.

• Julong guides for 300-310kt of copper in 2026 and 310-320kt in 2027.
• Higher-grade Julong ore could lift combined Phase I and II output to 350-400kt in 2029-30 without Phase III.
• Julong copper unit costs rose about 17% year-on-year to about Rmb25,000/t, but management expects improvement in 2027.
• Xianglong-Zhunuo, Tianyuan-Xiongcun and Lakkor Tso create further Tibet-led copper and lithium growth options.
• UBS's 12-month Buy rating carries a HK$57.80 target price versus HK$33.58 on 23 September 2026.

Bernstein reiterates Outperform on Montage, arguing that agentic AI drives a CPU renaissance, faster MRDIMM adoption and a large new CXL opportunity. It forecasts global memory-interface-chip TAM of about USD20bn by 2030, with MRDIMM-related chips contributing roughly 73%.

• Global memory-interface-chip TAM is projected to reach about USD20bn by 2030, a 65% CAGR from 2025-30.
• MRDIMM penetration is forecast to rise from 2-3% in 2026 to more than 25% by 2030.
• MRDIMM interface-chip value is estimated at USD50-70 per module versus USD6-7 for DDR5 RDIMM.
• Bernstein estimates a roughly USD8.2bn 2030 TAM for CXL controllers used in DDR4 reuse.
• Montage, Renesas and Rambus controlled about 92% of the core memory-interface-chip market in 2024.

Bernstein retains Outperform and a HK$35.00 target price on Xiaomi as the 18 Pro series delivers major hardware and AI upgrades. The RMB1,000, roughly 20%, launch-price increase makes consumer acceptance a key test of Xiaomi's pricing power.

• Xiaomi 18 Pro and Pro Max launch at RMB5,999 and RMB6,999, respectively.
• Launch prices are RMB1,000, or about 20%, above the prior Xiaomi 17 series.
• New models use Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 2nm chips, larger batteries, and dual 200MP main and telephoto cameras.
• HyperOS 4 and Super XiaoAI 2.0 expand system-level AI integration and begin testing paid AI services.
• Bernstein's HK$35.00 target implies 34% upside from the HK$26.18 closing price on 23 September 2026.

Nomura still expects Asia curves eventually to bear flatten as global and regional tightening pressures build. It reduces conviction in the Thai 2s10s flattener to 3/5 and closes its Thai 5-year paid position after recent market moves.

• Thai Dec-2s10s THoR flattener conviction is reduced from 4/5 to 3/5; the current level is 80.5bp.
• Nomura closes its paid Dec-5y THOR position at a current level of 1.92%.
• It remains paid in Dec-5y SORA and Dec-5y Taiwan versus Korea, each at 3/5 conviction.
• Higher oil prices, sustained Asian growth and Fed tightening are seen as lowering the hurdle for Asian central-bank hikes.

UBS finds soft infrastructure investment, excavator demand and construction activity alongside resilient factory automation, machine tools, shipbuilding and industrial exports. It prefers industrial names with earnings visibility, structural growth, limited downside and attractive valuations.

• Infrastructure FAI fell 14.3% year on year in August, leading UBS to cut its 2026/2027 growth forecasts to -3.9%/+0.8%.
• September excavator demand remained weak beneath broadly flat reported sales, while HDT shipments were estimated at 100,000 units.
• Factory automation remained in structural recovery, led by AI-related supply chains and export-oriented manufacturing.
• Shipbuilding orders rose 18% year on year in August, bringing year-to-date growth to 111%.
• UBS sees component opportunities in humanoid robotics and potential supply-chain support from BYD's planned 2027 solid-state battery EV rollout.

The report argues that agentic AI makes server CPUs and DDR memory bandwidth more important, expanding the memory-interface-chip market faster than CPU shipments. Montage is positioned to benefit from MRDIMM adoption and potentially from CXL-enabled DDR4 reuse.

• Global DDR module chipset TAM is projected to reach about USD 20bn by 2030, implying a 65% CAGR from 2025–30.
• MRDIMM penetration is forecast to rise from 2–3% in 2026 to more than 25% by 2030.
• MRDIMM interface-chip value is estimated at USD 50–70 per module versus about USD 6–7 for DDR5 RDIMM.
• Montage, Renesas and Rambus controlled about 92% of the global core memory-interface-chip market in 2024.
• Bernstein estimates CXL DDR4 reuse could create roughly USD 8.2bn of global MXC TAM by 2030.

Goldman Sachs highlights 54.6% YoY growth in new orders and a US$1.67bn backlog, supporting management's 19–22% FY26 revenue-growth guidance. Emerging modalities, especially chemical macromolecules, biologics and peptides, underpin longer-term growth, while spending and margin pressures remain considerations.

• Newly signed orders rose 54.6% YoY and backlog increased 53.8% YoY to US$1.67bn.
• About 40% of backlog is expected in 2H26, 45% in 2027 and 15% in 2028.
• Chemical macromolecules backlog grew 163.5% YoY and biologics backlog grew 88.7% YoY.
• FY26 capex guidance increased to RMB2.6–2.8bn; FY27 capex may exceed RMB3bn.
• Goldman Sachs is Buy on the H share with a HK$168.20 target, and Neutral on the A share with a RMB185.20 target.