Nanjing luxury-mall traffic and sales weakened in July–August, but brand performance remained highly uneven

Overview

The report summarizes a 7 September channel check on a leading luxury shopping mall in Nanjing. It finds that the mall's July–August performance softened, but consumer demand and same-store sales varied sharply across luxury brands and categories.

Core views

Nomura's channel-check expert reported that sales performance and foot traffic at a leading Nanjing luxury mall weakened further in July–August 2026, within 3Q26, compared with 2Q26. Both measures recorded slight year-on-year declines. The report notes that 2Q26 had benefited from key sales periods and luxury-brand discounts, whereas July–August lacked major shopping festivals or promotional events. Unfavorable weather also discouraged travel, while overseas travel—particularly to Japan—diverted part of the mall's foot traffic. The expert sees a change in high-end consumption behavior amid an unstable external environment, including potential tax-policy changes. Hedonic spending is becoming more restrained, while experience-related consumption is strengthening. Over the longer term, the expert expects the new middle class to show the most pronounced weakening in luxury consumption, with both spending frequency and spending amounts declining materially. Across the mall's luxury segment, including global luxury brands and gold and jewelry, sales fell by a high-single-digit percentage year on year in July–August. Sales and traffic marginally rebounded after the late-August Qixi Festival, but the report emphasizes that individual brands diverged substantially. In jewelry, Van Cleef & Arpels continued to deliver double-digit year-on-year same-store-sales growth in July–August, while Cartier's same-store sales rose by a low-teens percentage after declining in 2Q26. The expert expects Van Cleef & Arpels to sustain high-teens year-on-year same-store-sales growth in 4Q26E and Cartier to maintain double-digit growth. In contrast, Bulgari and Tiffany remained sluggish, with their downtrend expected to continue in 4Q26E. Laopu Gold faced significant growth pressure after gold prices retreated in 2Q26, but showed signs of improvement in August, particularly during the Qixi Festival, when both sales and traffic recovered. Among global fashion-luxury brands, Chanel maintained sales growth of more than 10% year on year in July–August. Hermès and Louis Vuitton posted low- to mid-single-digit growth, while Dior showed clear signs of recovery. Gucci's sales downtrend continued over the same period.

Analysis framework

The report uses a channel-check call with an expert familiar with China’s high-end consumption trends. It compares July–August performance with 2Q26 and year-earlier levels, then separates overall mall conditions from brand-level sales momentum and near-term expectations.

Methodology notes

• Industry Analysis

  Channel check and same-store-sales comparison

  The report relies on expert observations of mall traffic, sales and brand-level same-store-sales trends to assess current luxury-consumption conditions and differences among brands.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Forward P/E multiple valuation for Laopu Gold

  The issuer-specific valuation disclosure states that Nomura's HKD905 target price for Laopu Gold is based on 20x FY26F P/E, compared with its average 20.3x forward-12-month P/E since listing in June 2024.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

  Covered premium domestic jewelry brand whose sales and traffic improved during the late-August Qixi Festival after growth pressure following lower gold prices in 2Q26.

  Strengths

  The report observed a recovery in sales and foot traffic during the Qixi Festival.

  Weaknesses

  Significant growth pressure followed the retreat in gold prices in 2Q26.

  Comparison

  Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier showed stronger sales momentum; Bulgari and Tiffany remained sluggish.

  Risks

  Significant weakening of gold prices, higher-than-expected fashion risk and a weaker-than-expected macro environment.

• Richemont (CFR SW)

  Owner of Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier, whose brands showed strong jewelry-sales momentum.

  Strengths

  Van Cleef & Arpels delivered double-digit same-store-sales growth and Cartier low-teens growth in July–August.

  Comparison

  Its jewelry brands outperformed the sluggish trends cited for Bulgari and Tiffany.

• LVMH (MC FP)

  Owner of Bulgari, Tiffany, Louis Vuitton and Dior; brand trends were mixed.

  Strengths

  Louis Vuitton maintained low- to mid-single-digit growth and Dior showed recovery signs.

  Weaknesses

  Bulgari and Tiffany remained sluggish, with continued weakness expected in 4Q26E.

  Comparison

  Performance contrasted with the stronger momentum reported for Van Cleef & Arpels, Cartier and Chanel.

• Kering (KER FP)

  Owner of Gucci, whose sales downtrend continued.

  Weaknesses

  Gucci's downtrend persisted in July–August 2026.

  Comparison

  Gucci lagged Chanel, Hermès, Louis Vuitton and Dior in the report's fashion-luxury observations.

Key data

• Luxury-segment salesHigh-single-digit% year-on-year declineJuly–August 2026; includes global luxury brands and gold and jewelry.
• Mall sales and foot trafficSlight year-on-year declinesJuly–August 2026, with further weakening versus 2Q26.
• Van Cleef & Arpels same-store-sales growthDouble-digit% year on yearJuly–August 2026; high-teens growth expected in 4Q26E.
• Cartier same-store-sales growthLow-teens% year on yearJuly–August 2026, improving from a year-on-year decline in 2Q26; double-digit growth expected in 4Q26E.
• Chanel sales growthOver 10% year on yearJuly–August 2026.

Impact & implications

The report indicates that China luxury demand at the observed mall was softer in the summer, but aggregate weakness did not translate uniformly to all brands. Jewelry and fashion outcomes depended on brand positioning and consumer demand, while festival-related traffic offered a limited late-August improvement.

Risks

• For Laopu Gold, Nomura identifies significant gold-price weakness, higher-than-expected fashion risk and a weaker-than-expected macro environment as key downside risks.

What to watch

• Whether the late-August Qixi Festival rebound in mall sales and foot traffic persists.
• Whether Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier meet the expert's expected 4Q26E same-store-sales growth.
• Whether sluggish trends at Bulgari and Tiffany continue through 4Q26E.
• Changes in consumer behavior, tax-policy conditions, weather and overseas travel that may affect luxury-mall traffic.