China exports continued to grow in Jan-Feb 2026, with ASEAN and Africa becoming key incremental destinations

Overview

This report uses UBS Evidence Lab China Export Monitor data to map roughly 6,000 six-digit HS code products into 9 industries and 112 subsegments, covering more than 90% of China’s total exports in 2024, and tracks YoY changes in China’s exports by industry, destination, and subsegment in Jan-Feb 2026. The key conclusion is that China’s exports overall still maintained relatively high growth, but destination divergence was clear: the U.S. remained negative, while ASEAN, Europe, and Africa contributed most of the incremental growth.

Core views

China’s exports grew 22% YoY in Jan-Feb 2026. By destination, Africa grew about 50% YoY, Oceania 32%, ASEAN 29%, and Europe 27%, while the U.S. declined 11% YoY. By industry, automobiles, industrial goods, consumer, technology, utilities, and basic materials all grew; technology exports accounted for about 22% of the mix and grew 27% YoY, while automobiles accounted for about 11% and grew 41% YoY. By subsegment, simplified-declaration B2B cross-border e-commerce, semiconductors, and wind power equipment each achieved very high YoY growth of roughly 180%-185%, 150%, and 146%, respectively.

Analysis framework

The report decomposes China’s exports by HS code, destination, industry, and subsegment using customs export data and the UBS Evidence Lab classification framework, and compares YoY changes and export value differences under the Jan-Feb 2026 period, December 2025, and the March 2025 baseline.

Methodology notes

• Export data monitoringUBS Evidence Lab China Export Monitor

  HS code industry mapping

  Classifies roughly 6,000 six-digit HS code products into 9 industries and 112 subsegments to analyze China’s export industry structure, destination structure, and sources of YoY incremental growth.

• Regional comparisonDestination YoY growth decomposition

  Destination growth rates and incremental contribution

  Compares export YoY growth, industry drivers, and incremental export value across destinations such as the United States, ASEAN, Europe, Africa, Latin America, and Japan.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China semiconductor export chain

  High-growth and high-incremental-contribution segment

  Strengths

  Semiconductor exports grew about 150% YoY in Jan-Feb 2026 and contributed about 14% of the YoY incremental export value.

  Weaknesses

  Strong exports of some technology products may involve transshipment factors, and sustainability needs to be observed.

  Comparison

  Compared with most industries, semiconductors rank among the leaders in both growth rate and incremental contribution.

  Risks

  External trade restrictions, end-demand fluctuations, and tighter transshipment regulation may affect growth sustainability.

• China automobile export chain

  One of the main drivers of export growth

  Strengths

  Automobile exports grew about 41% YoY, and passenger vehicles contributed about 7% of the YoY incremental export value.

  Weaknesses

  Automobile exports to Mexico declined 19% YoY in Jan-Feb 2026, showing divergent regional performance.

  Comparison

  ASEAN and Japan markets still provide support, but destinations such as the U.S. and Mexico face pressure.

  Risks

  Overseas trade policy, local competition, pricing pressure, and logistics costs may affect profitability.

• China utilities and power equipment export chain

  A beneficiary direction of growth in ASEAN and Africa

  Strengths

  Utilities exports to ASEAN grew about 46% YoY, and wind power equipment grew about 146% YoY, indicating strong demand for power equipment.

  Weaknesses

  Growth may be affected by project cycles and the pace of infrastructure investment in destination markets.

  Comparison

  Performs better than most traditional consumer goods in exports to ASEAN and Africa.

  Risks

  Overseas project delays, changing financing conditions, and policy changes in resource-exporting countries may weigh on orders.

• Industries related to exports to the U.S.

  Negative drag and risk exposure

  Strengths

  The decline in exports to the U.S. narrowed from -30% in December 2025 to -11% in Jan-Feb 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Technology and miscellaneous products exports to the U.S. still fell by about -35% and -36%, respectively, and the two-month average export value of major industries remained below the March 2025 level.

  Comparison

  Clearly weaker than growth destinations such as ASEAN, Europe, and Africa.

  Risks

  Weak U.S. demand, tariffs and trade restrictions, and supply-chain shifts may continue to suppress exports.

Key data

• China export total growth+22% YoYChina’s total exports grew 22% YoY in Jan-Feb 2026.
• Exports to the U.S. growth-11% YoYThe decline narrowed from -30% in December 2025, but average export values over the two months for major industries still remained below the March 2025 level.
• Exports to ASEAN growth+29% YoYThis accelerated further from +11% in December 2025, mainly driven by technology, utilities, and industrial goods.
• Exports to Europe growth+27% YoYEurope accounted for about 21% of the export destination mix and was one of the major growth regions.
• Exports to Africa growth+50% YoYAfrica was the fastest-growing major destination in Jan-Feb 2026, and the report believes it may become the next key destination for Chinese companies’ overseas expansion.
• Semiconductor incremental contribution14%Semiconductors were the subsegment with the highest contribution to YoY incremental export value in Jan-Feb 2026.
• Exports to Mexico growth+5% YoYGrowth was mainly driven by healthcare, technology, and utilities, but automobile exports declined 19% YoY.
• Exports to Japan growth+9% YoYAutomobiles and utilities were the main drivers of export growth to Japan.

Impact & implications

The export data suggests that the incremental markets for Chinese industrial companies’ overseas expansion are shifting away from a single developed market toward multi-regional diffusion across ASEAN, Africa, and Europe. For the industrial chain, semiconductors, automobiles, power equipment, wind power equipment, industrial goods, and some consumer goods all demonstrate strong export resilience; however, exports to the U.S. remain weak, with technology and miscellaneous products both declining significantly to the U.S., indicating that external variables such as tariffs, demand, and transshipment regulation may still affect export-chain performance.

Risks

• A downturn in China’s macro investment cycle may suppress industrial goods demand and import-export volumes.
• If tax incentives for high-tech firms and similar policies are removed, profitability for related companies may be affected.
• Intensifying competition from domestic and overseas firms may lead to market share loss.
• Exports to the U.S. remain negative, and changes in trade policy, tariffs, and regulation may introduce uncertainty.
• Some of the strong export performance may be related to transshipment; if regulation tightens, the related growth rate could pull back.

What to watch

• Whether the decline in China’s exports to the U.S. continues to narrow in subsequent months.
• Whether high growth in ASEAN technology products is sustainable and whether it is affected by transshipment regulation.
• Whether Africa’s resource development, infrastructure spending, and macro improvement continue to drive China’s industrial goods exports.
• Incremental export trends in high-contribution segments such as semiconductors, passenger vehicles, wind power equipment, and power equipment.
• Whether the decline in automobile exports to Mexico is a short-term fluctuation or reflects regional competition and policy changes.