Humanoid Robot IPO Wave Will Ignite Industrial Chain Investment Opportunities

Overview

This report released by Morgan Stanley focuses on the commercialization process and investment opportunities of the humanoid robot industry. Core view: Second half of 2026 will see IPO wave for multiple Chinese companies, plus global mass production acceleration and strong Chinese policy support. Industry moving from R&D to scaled application, triggering upstream core component demand. Predicts 2050 global market size up to $7.5T. Systematic analysis of investment value across industrial chain links.

Core views

Demand Side: Humanoid robot commercialization accelerates. China companies like Unitree, Leju, DeepRobotics submitted IPO applications; Unitree expected to complete listing in July 2026, greatly boosting market attention. US companies Figure AI and Tesla shifting from prototypes to mass production; Figure AI's BotQ factory planning annual capacity increasing gradually from 12,000 units to 100,000 units. Additionally, large institutions like Japan Airlines and China State Grid began large-scale pilot usage, verifying feasibility in airport cargo handling, power grid inspection scenarios. Supply Side: Industrial chain capacity and technology upgrade simultaneously. Global leading enterprises accelerate data accumulation and algorithm iteration through strategic partnerships (e.g., Schaeffler-Humanoid Robot, FANUC-Google), promoting robot capability enhancement. At the same time, Chinese industrial chain upstream enterprises (e.g., reducer, servo motor, sensor manufacturers) benefit from downstream full system factories expansion needs; related company stock prices significantly outperformed the broader market in May 2026. Valuation & Market Potential: Report constructs global humanoid robot market model, predicting cumulative shipment volume of 1 billion units by 2050, corresponding to annual revenue of $7.5 trillion. Core assumption is supply chain maturity and mass production lead to high-income countries robot selling price dropping from $200k in 2024 to $75k in 2050, while medium-low income countries price drops from $50k to $21k. This market scale far exceeds total revenue of top 20 global car manufacturers in 2024 (~$2.5 trillion), highlighting disruptive potential. Industrial Chain Mapping: Report divides industrial chain into 'Brain' (Chips/Software), 'Body' (Precision Parts/Motors/Sensors), and 'Integrators' (Full System Manufacturers). Among them, 'Body' component companies benefit directly from mass production release, current most clear beneficiaries; their sector monthly performance (+11%) in May 2026 significantly surpasses 'Brain' and 'Integrators'. Policy Driver: China formally includes robots into '14th Five-Year Plan' strategic emerging industries; National and Local Governments (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou) issued over RMB 187B special funds and subsidy policies covering R&D, procurement, production, application scenarios throughout the chain, providing strong long-term support for industry development.

Analysis framework

Institutions adopted a 'Technology Diffusion + Industry Cycle' analysis framework. First, track events like IPOs, financing, mass production and major partnerships to identify signals of industry inflection point turning from 'technology breakthrough' to 'commercial application', key signal to judge industry entry into explosion period. Second, decompose humanoid robot industry into complete value chain of 'Brain-Body-Integrator', apply 'industrial chain transmission' logic to judge which link benefits first and most directly from downstream demand growth. On this basis, combine government policy clarity and capital input scale to judge industry development certainty and sustainability. Finally, construct long-term TAM model, use historical cost decline curves and revenue forecasts to quantify distant market potential, provide basis for long-term investment.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Industrial Chain Transmission

  Upstream-Midstream-Downstream Industrial Chain Transmission

  Report divides humanoid robot industry into three segments: 'Brain' (Software/Chips), 'Body' (Precision Parts), and 'Integrators' (Full Systems). It analyzes when downstream integrators begin large-scale mass production, demand for upstream component suppliers will grow first and most directly. Therefore, report believes 'Body' segment companies are more clear beneficiary targets than 'Integrator' or 'Brain' segment companies at this current stage.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Supply-Demand Framework

  Report explicitly states core contradiction of current humanoid robot industry is relationship between 'Demand Side' explosion (IPO, Mass Production, Policy Procurement) and 'Supply Side' capacity expansion (Factory Construction, Supply Chain Construction). Report believes rapid demand growth (e.g., Unitree Listing, Figure AI Expansion) is creating strong demand tailwinds for upstream components, core driver pushing related company performance and stock prices.

• Valuation MethodSOTP Valuation Method

  SOTP Valuation Method

  Report adopts similar SOTP (Sum of the Parts) thinking when analyzing market potential, divides global market by income level (High, Medium, Low) and application scenarios, estimate penetration rates and market size for different groups respectively, then sum to get overall TAM. This method avoids making single rough forecast for entire market, improves model rationality.

• Cycle & Prosperity FrameworkCyclical Inflection Point Analysis

  Cyclical Inflection Point Analysis

  Report core judgment is humanoid robot industry正处于从‘研发和概念炒作’向‘商业化和规模化生产’的景气拐点。It uses IPO applications, mass production plans, big customer orders (e.g., State Grid) and policy upgrades (included in '14th Five-Year Plan') as specific evidence confirming inflection point has arrived, rather than just inferring from tech progress.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkPenetration Rate S-Curve

  Penetration Rate S-Curve

  Report forecast for future market size (e.g., 1 billion units by 2050) based on estimated market penetration rates for different income level countries globally, implicitly implying tech diffusion from early adopters (High Income Countries) to mass market (Medium-Low Income Countries) S-curve logic, classic paradigm for technology product popularization.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Unitree (China)

  Benefits from IPO and mass production, core integrator in industrial chain, its progress acts as barometer for industry sentiment

  Strengths

  Tech leading, rich product line (humanoid/quadruped), IPO submitted, fast commercialization landing

  Weaknesses

  Recent profit margin pressure, dragged by high marketing and R&D expenses

  Comparison

  Compared to UBTECH, Unitree stronger in revenue and profitability; Compared to Leju, its tech more mature, higher market recognition

  Risks

  IPO progress below expectation, market competition intensifying leading to price wars, core tech rapidly imitated

• Wuxi Lead (China)

  As supplier for 'Body' segment, its robot equipment orders come from head integrators, directly benefits from capacity expansion

  Strengths

  Also battery equipment supplier, dual demand driver; Strategic cooperation established with Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center

  Weaknesses

  Short term stock price influenced heavily by battery equipment orders, humanoid robot business share still small

  Comparison

  Compared to other parts merchants, its partners (Beijing Innovation Center) has official background, project certainty higher

  Risks

  Downstream integrator capacity expansion speed slows down, order volume below expectation

• Schaeffler (Germany)

  As global leading bearing and transmission system supplier, its products are key components of robot 'Body'

  Strengths

  Reached 5-year long term supply and data cooperation with humanoid robot companies, deeply bound to future demand

  Weaknesses

  Humanoid robot business contribution to overall revenue currently extremely small, emerging incremental

  Comparison

  Compared to traditional industrial robot suppliers, its coop in humanoid robot field more strategically forward-looking

  Risks

  Tech route change causing its product being replaced, or partner switching to other suppliers

• Intel (USA)

  As semiconductor supplier for 'Brain' segment, its chips used for robot perception and computing

  Strengths

  Deep accumulation in AI chips and visual computing fields, core participant in industrial chain

  Weaknesses

  Faces fierce competition from companies like NVIDIA, its advantage in humanoid robot dedicated chip fields unclear

  Comparison

  Compared to NVIDIA, Intel fewer direct cooperations and product landing cases in humanoid robot field

  Risks

  AI compute demand shifting to dedicated chips (e.g. ASIC), general CPU chip value weakened

• CATL (China)

  As global largest power battery supplier, provides energy solutions for robots

  Strengths

  Cost and tech leading, one of core suppliers in robot 'Body' segment

  Weaknesses

  Robot battery demand volume far smaller than new energy vehicles, current market size small

  Comparison

  Compared to LG and Samsung SDI, CATL stronger supply chain synergy advantages in China local market

  Risks

  Robot requirements for battery cycle life, safety and low temp performance extremely high, technical standards may exceed automotive

Key data

• Unitree Q1 2026 Adjusted Net ProfitYoY Decrease 53%Mainly due to increased marketing (CCTV Spring Festival Gala) and R&D expenses, but revenue grew 68% YoY
• Unitree Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance+20% to +34% YoYExpected net profit to recover to -10% to +12% range, showing improvement expectations
• Figure AI BotQ Factory CapacityInitial 12,000 units/yearTarget to reach 100,000 units/year within few years, marking mass production capability breakthrough
• China State Grid Robot ProcurementRMB 6.8 BillionFor purchasing 8,500 sets smart systems, including 500 humanoid robots, setting largest single order history
• Total Amount of Established Humanoid Robot Related Funds in ChinaApproximately RMB 187 BillionCovering National, Local and Special Funds, providing long term capital support for industry development
• 2050 Global Humanoid Robot Market Forecast Revenue$7.5 TrillionBased on 6-year replacement cycle and ASP decline assumptions, far exceeding 2024 Global Top 20 Auto Makers Total Revenue (~$2.5 Trillion)
• China Humanoid Value Chain Index (May 2026)Monthly Increase 8%Among them 'Body' component companies rose 11%, significantly outperforming MSCI China Index (-3%)
• 2050 Global Humanoid Robot Cumulative Shipment Forecast1 Billion UnitsAccounting for 100% of 1 Billion Potential Labor Force Globally, reflecting long term penetration rate expectation

Impact & implications

Report believes humanoid robot industry commercialization inflection point has arrived, impact profound. First, this will bring huge new demand for global semiconductors, precision manufacturing and industrial automation industrial chains, especially companies with advantages in reducers, servo motors, sensors etc. in China. Second, this industry development will reshape labor structure in manufacturing, logistics, energy and service sectors. Finally, China possessing powerful supply chain, policy support and huge application scenarios, is expected to occupy dominant position in global humanoid robot industry, related technical standards and market patterns will be dominated by it.

Risks

• Humanoid robot tech generalization ability insufficient in complex real environments, huge gap exists compared to lab demonstrations
• Mass production costs and yield control not meeting expectations, leading to prices unable to drop, market penetration slow
• Global macro economy downturn or geopolitical conflict causing supply chain disruption or R&D investment reduction
• Tech routes appearing disruptive innovations, causing current mainstream mechanical structures and control schemes被淘汰
• Global regulation policies becoming stricter, concerns over robot safety, data privacy and employment substitution causing approval delays

What to watch

• Unitree IPO final pricing and listing performance
• Figure AI and Tesla mass production progress and per unit cost decline speed
• Subsequent industry support details and subsidy distribution circumstances issued by Chinese national and local governments
• More large enterprises (e.g. logistics companies, factories) announced humanoid robot procurement and deployment plans
• Technical breakthroughs and cost reductions for robot core components (e.g. dexterous hands, joint modules)