Maintain Buy on Robotis: Capacity expansion and humanoid robot progress support high growth

Overview

This report reiterates a positive view following Robotis's 2Q26 results. Goldman Sachs places greater emphasis on annual growth trends in the early-stage robotics industry than on quarterly volatility, believing that actuator demand, overseas capacity expansion, and humanoid robot commercialization progress will accelerate revenue and profit.

Core views

Robotis's core growth thesis remains intact. 2Q26 results demonstrate a strong growth trajectory, but current capacity constrained actuator deliveries; as Uzbekistan capacity ramps up in 2H26 and Korea further expands capacity, revenue and profit are expected to improve materially. AI Sapiens's enhanced software capabilities, open-source strategy, and potential government demand reinforce the humanoid robot opportunity.

Analysis framework

Uses a top-down analysis of industry catalysts and a bottom-up analysis of company operations, focusing on annual revenue/profit trends, actuator supply constraints, capacity expansion, humanoid robot product maturity, and valuation opportunities across Korea's robotics supply chain.

Methodology notes

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs uses standardized rankings and percentiles to compare stocks with their covered market and industry peers; growth references forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth, financial returns reference forward ROE, ROCE, and CROCI, and valuation references forward P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA, and other metrics.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Classification of potential acquisition probability

  Goldman Sachs categorizes covered companies into ranks 1 to 3 based on qualitative and quantitative factors; Rank 1 represents a higher potential probability of acquisition, while Rank 3 represents a lower probability. The report's table shows Robotis has an M&A Rank of 3.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Robotis (108490.KQ)

  Core covered stock

  Strengths

  Strong demand for the actuator business; Uzbekistan capacity expansion provides supply flexibility; AI Sapiens has made notable progress in humanoid robot movement and dexterity; it offers relatively scarce pure-play robotics exposure.

  Weaknesses

  Current insufficient capacity constrains deliveries; Robotis AI's AMR business remains in a slow ramp-up and loss-making stage.

  Comparison

  Compared with auto parts companies that also have traditional businesses, Robotis offers purer exposure to humanoid robots and actuators.

  Risks

  Delayed capacity ramp-up, demand conversion below expectations, slower humanoid robot commercialization, widening AMR losses, and high-valuation volatility.

• HLMando

  Korea robotics/actuator supply-chain related stock

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains Buy; current valuation can largely be explained by the traditional core business, while investors gain additional robotics actuator exposure.

  Weaknesses

  The robotics business is not the sole valuation driver.

  Comparison

  Compared with Robotis, it has lower robotics business purity, but its traditional business provides valuation support.

  Risks

  Robotics business contribution falls short of expectations and volatility in the core auto parts business.

• Hyundai Mobis

  Korea robotics supply-chain related stock

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains Buy (on CL); the valuation foundation of its traditional business makes the robotics-related optionality attractive.

  Weaknesses

  Robotics exposure is more indirect than Robotis's.

  Comparison

  Compared with Robotis, it has lower sensitivity to the robotics theme but a more mature business foundation.

  Risks

  Cyclicality in the traditional automotive business and robotics-related investment returns falling short of expectations.

Key data

• 2Q26 revenue YoY growth95%The report states that 2Q26 revenue grew 95%.
• 2Q26 operating profit YoY growth723%The report states that 2Q26 operating profit grew 723%.
• 2026 revenue forecastW98.3bnShown in the report table; Goldman Sachs expects 153% YoY growth in the text.
• 2027 revenue forecastW200.5bnShown in the report table.
• 2026 operating profit forecastW3bnForecast in the text; 1Q26 recorded a -W12bn loss due to stock-compensation-related expenses.
• Core customer actuator demand fulfillment rateApproximately 66%The company stated that it could not meet all demand in the first half of 2026.
• Forecast external humanoid robot shipments next year800 unitsGoldman Sachs model forecast.
• Target price and upsideW630,000; 125.0%Calculated based on the report's listed share price of W280,000.

Impact & implications

If capacity bottlenecks are resolved as planned, backlog and unmet actuator demand could translate into faster revenue recognition; improvements in humanoid robot hardware and software capabilities, together with an open-source ecosystem strategy, are expected to expand Robotis's standardization opportunity in Korea's humanoid robot supply chain. Maintaining the Buy rating without changes to EPS or the target price indicates that the investment thesis is primarily driven by execution and capacity delivery.

Risks

• New capacity ramp-up in Uzbekistan and Korea is slower than expected.
• Actuator orders, backlog, or customer demand cannot be converted into revenue as expected.
• Robotis AI's AMR business continues to incur losses or commercializes more slowly than expected.
• Humanoid robot procurement demand, policy support, or industry capital enthusiasm weakens.
• The robotics industry remains at an early stage, quarterly data bases are small, and earnings and valuations may be highly volatile.

What to watch

• Commissioning of Uzbekistan capacity and delivery improvements in 2H26.
• Actuator demand fulfillment rates, backlog digestion, and the pace of revenue recognition.
• AI Sapiens product demonstrations at the World Robot Conference and subsequent customer applications, open-source ecosystem developments, and order progress.
• Korean government humanoid robot procurement plans and potential investment trends from the Korea Growth Fund.
• Robotis AI loss narrowing and AMR business ramp-up.
• The impact of industry events, such as Unitree's listing, on attention and valuations in Korea's robotics sector.