The optical networking uptrend strengthens, with FiconTEC supporting RoboTechnik's high-growth logic

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' key takeaways from the Asia Communacopia + Technology optical networking thematic session on RoboTechnik and FiconTEC. The session featured RoboTechnik's founder and FiconTEC's co-founder and CEO. The core topics were the importance of optical networking to AI infrastructure, the CPO trend, and FiconTEC's competitive advantages. The report argues that optical networking can unlock the compute power of individual AI chips, connect multiple chips to work together, and drive AI infrastructure into its next stage through low-latency, high-bandwidth data exchange.

Core views

Goldman's core view is that the AI infrastructure cycle remains in an uptrend, global leading cloud service providers continue to invest in AI, and high-speed connectivity specifications both inside servers and between servers continue to upgrade, lifting optical networking penetration. Through its acquisition of FiconTEC, RoboTechnik has entered silicon photonics assembly and testing equipment and is benefiting from two growth curves: pluggable optical modules and CPO optical engines. The report expects RoboTechnik revenue to grow at a roughly 103% CAGR in 2026E-28E and maintains a Buy rating.

Analysis framework

The report combines meeting notes, management views, thematic industry research, and a valuation model: it first explains the optical networking growth logic from the high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity needs of AI data centers, then discusses the market opportunity for the parallel growth of CPO and pluggable optical modules, and finally uses FiconTEC's end-to-end capabilities in nanometer-level active alignment, wafer-level testing, PIC and silicon photonics device assembly, and final testing to form a view on RoboTechnik's growth and valuation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDiscounted P/E target price method

  Derives the target price from forward earnings and a target P/E multiple

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price of Rmb688 is based on 50x 2031E P/E, discounted back to 2027E at an 11.3% cost of equity; the target multiple references the PEG & M relationship of consumer electronics peers, as well as RoboTechnik's 2032E net profit growth of 39% YoY and 2032E operating margin of 24%.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Compares growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile compares individual stocks with the rated stock pool and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics to provide investment context.

• M&A probabilityM&A Rank

  Assesses the probability of a potential acquisition on a scale from 1 to 3

  Goldman Sachs discloses that its global coverage uses an M&A framework to assess the likelihood that a company becomes an acquisition target; 1 represents high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability. The report discloses this framework but does not provide RoboTechnik's specific M&A rank.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• RoboTechnik (300757.SZ)

  Core covered company, holds 100% of FiconTEC and benefits from optical networking equipment demand

  Strengths

  Completed the FiconTEC acquisition; has exposure to silicon photonics assembly and testing equipment; Goldman Sachs expects high revenue CAGR in 2026E-28E; Buy rating maintained.

  Weaknesses

  The implied valuation multiple is high, requiring strong delivery of long-term growth and margin expansion; legacy photovoltaic-related businesses may be dragged down by the downturn cycle.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional semiconductor equipment, silicon photonics device production has lower automation and ecosystem maturity, and FiconTEC's WaferLine and multi-axis active alignment systems can help customers move from the lab to mass production.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, optical interconnect end-demand below expectations, and a worse-than-expected downturn in the photovoltaic market.

• FiconTEC

  A subsidiary acquired by RoboTechnik in 2025 and the core of the silicon photonics equipment growth thesis

  Strengths

  Management says it is one of the only providers worldwide that can supply production-ready, ultra-high-precision silicon photonics assembly and testing equipment, with linear motion resolution of up to 5 nm, and it covers an end-to-end process from wafer-level testing, PIC and silicon photonics device assembly to final testing.

  Weaknesses

  Business growth depends on the scaling of silicon photonics devices, customer capex, and the advancement of the AI data center optical interconnect route.

  Comparison

  Traditional semiconductor equipment struggles to meet the nanometer-level optical alignment requirements of silicon photonics devices; FiconTEC is more oriented toward specialized high-precision silicon photonics mass-production equipment.

  Risks

  If CPO or high-end pluggable optical module penetration falls short of expectations, equipment order momentum may be affected.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-25 8:35AM HKTFrom the cover information.
• RatingBuyThe report states that the Buy rating is maintained.
• Target priceRmb68812-month target price unchanged.
• Implied valuation multiple221x 2027E P/EThe report says the Rmb688 target price implies 221x 2027E P/E.
• Revenue growth forecast+103% CAGR in 2026E-28EGoldman Sachs expects RoboTechnik revenue to grow at about 103% CAGR in 2026E-28E.
• Recent revenue growth4Q25 +494% YoY; 1Q26 +69% YoYThe report says RoboTechnik achieved high growth after completing the FiconTEC acquisition.
• FiconTEC revenue contributionMore than 50% in 2025The report says FiconTEC contributed more than 50% of RoboTechnik's revenue in 2025.
• CPO switch forecast2026E/2027E/2028E at 15k/88k/110kCited from Goldman Sachs' optical networking thematic research.
• 800G and above pluggable optical module shipments2026E-28E CAGR 42%, reaching 118m units in 2028EThe report expects continued growth in 800G and above pluggable optical modules.
• Net profit chart forecastApproximately Rmb50m in 2025E and approximately Rmb2,500m in 2030EFrom visual identification of the chart; figures are estimated.
• Operating margin chart forecastApproximately 1% in 2025E and approximately 22% in 2030EFrom visual identification of the chart; figures are estimated.
• Historical table closing priceRmb496.46 on 16-Apr-26The historical target price table shows a target price of Rmb688 and a closing price of Rmb496.46 on 16-Apr-26.

Impact & implications

If AI infrastructure investment continues and CPO and pluggable optical modules expand simultaneously, the silicon photonics assembly and testing equipment capabilities obtained by RoboTechnik through FiconTEC may become the main source of earnings elasticity. The investment implication of the report is that the market should focus on the path of revenue scaling, margin expansion, and valuation digestion after the company transforms from a traditional business into an optical networking equipment platform.

Risks

• Competition may be more intense than expected.
• Optical interconnect end-demand may be weaker than expected.
• The downturn cycle in the photovoltaic market may be more severe than expected.
• The expansion pace of CPO or pluggable optical modules may be slower than expected.
• Insufficient delivery of long-term profit and margin forecasts could pressure the high valuation.

What to watch

• The pace of AI capex and high-speed interconnect specification upgrades among global leading CSPs.
• CPO penetration in scale-out scenarios and changes in value content for pluggable optical modules across platforms such as GB300 to Rubin Ultra NVL576.
• Whether shipments of 800G and above pluggable optical modules grow along the 42% CAGR path.
• FiconTEC's orders, deliveries, capacity expansion, and its share of RoboTechnik revenue.
• Changes in the revenue mix and gross margin of RoboTechnik's optical assembly, optical customization, optical testing, and optical stacking businesses.