Global energy storage and battery weekly: North American ESS, localized supply chains, and new battery technologies continue to gain momentum

Overview

This report is Bernstein's weekly update on the global energy storage and battery industry chain, covering battery capacity, energy storage projects, electric vehicles, materials supply, and new technology developments across the U.S., Asia, Europe, and other regions. The report highlights continued strengthening of North American ESS and EV supply chain localization, strong activity by Korean battery companies in projects involving Tesla, Hyundai, Google, and Korean grid storage, and continued progress by Chinese companies in solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, European battery plants, and global energy storage manufacturing bases.

Core views

The core views include: first, ESS is becoming an important incremental source of battery demand, as seen in Tesla ESS, Google's solar-plus-storage, Korean grid storage, Italy's 500 MW/2 GWh storage project, and Australian solar-plus-storage projects, all reflecting expanding demand from the grid and data center sides. Second, LFP remains the mainstream direction for energy storage and some EV applications, with multiple cases reinforcing its durability, safety, and cost advantages. Third, although sodium-ion and solid-state batteries are still at an early stage of commercialization, a 5 GWh deployment plan in Europe and a solid-state battery equipment base in China have already emerged and merit continued tracking. Fourth, the U.S. IRA and local supply chain requirements continue to affect battery and materials procurement, driving Korean and Japanese automakers, battery manufacturers, and materials suppliers to expand capacity or sign long-term agreements in North America.

Analysis framework

The report uses an industry weekly format, aggregating major global news, project announcements, supply agreements, capacity construction, policy developments, and pricing and valuation data, while tracking changes in industry conditions through battery material prices, key company share price performance, and valuation tables. The analytical focus is not on financial models for individual companies, but on identifying trends in battery demand, regional competitive dynamics, and supply chain migration through changes in orders, capacity, project scale, and technology pathways.

Methodology notes

• Industry trackingBattery Weekly

  Weekly news and project tracking

  By consolidating weekly events across the battery, energy storage, EV, and materials supply chains, the report observes changes in demand sources, capacity additions, technology pathways, and regional policies.

• Industry chain analysisBattery supply chain layering

  Identifying beneficiary segments from materials, cell, pack, ESS, and end applications

  The report simultaneously covers lithium, nickel, cobalt, cathodes, anodes, separators, electrolytes, battery manufacturers, and downstream energy storage and EV projects to assess differences in industry conditions across the supply chain.

• Technology pathway analysisBattery chemistry comparison

  Application differences among LFP, NMC, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries

  Using examples such as Tesla Model 3 battery degradation, CATL sodium-ion ESS, solid-state battery pilot lines, and ESS LFP projects, the report shows differences across technology pathways in cost, safety, durability, and stage of commercialization.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung SDI

  Potential beneficiary of the dedicated LFP line for Tesla ESS in the U.S., Korean AI grid ESS projects, and AI data center UPS battery safety certification

  Strengths

  Supported by domestic Korean ESS orders, North American capacity conversion, and strong battery safety credentials.

  Weaknesses

  The shift of EV battery capacity toward ESS may be affected by Tesla order realization, production line conversion, and the pace of U.S. demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with LGES and SK On, Samsung SDI stood out more this week in ESS and UPS safety applications.

  Risks

  Order size is still an industry estimate, and the production ramp, customer concentration, and technology validation for ESS projects all need to be tracked.

• LG Energy Solution

  Beneficiary of Tesla cylindrical battery demand, Google's large solar-plus-storage project, and North American LFP system supply

  Strengths

  Has clear project support in both the Tesla supply chain and North American energy storage systems.

  Weaknesses

  Capacity expansion in Nanjing is still tied to Tesla vehicle sales and cylindrical battery demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with Samsung SDI, LGES this week was more focused on a dual track of Tesla EV batteries and large solar-plus-storage projects.

  Risks

  Customer demand volatility, the timing of capacity ramp-up, and intensified competition in LFP energy storage could affect margins.

• CATL

  Beneficiary of LFP durability validation, European sodium-ion energy storage deployment, and the CATL-Stellantis battery project in Spain

  Strengths

  Its technology pathways span LFP, sodium-ion, and large-scale European capacity cooperation, with clear brand and scale advantages.

  Weaknesses

  European projects may depend on local policies, permits, labor, and technology licensing arrangements.

  Comparison

  Compared with Korean battery makers, CATL stands out more in sodium-ion and large-scale European capacity deployment.

  Risks

  Trade policy, technology transfer restrictions, execution of European localization, and the commercialization progress of sodium-ion batteries remain uncertain.

• Gotion High-Tech

  Entering new energy heavy truck and construction machinery battery applications through an order of more than 10 GWh from SANY

  Strengths

  Order size is clear, and application scenarios are expanding from passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles and construction machinery.

  Weaknesses

  Electrification of heavy trucks and construction machinery still depends on higher end-market penetration.

  Comparison

  Compared with passenger vehicle battery makers, Gotion's news this week was more focused on electrification of commercial and industrial vehicles.

  Risks

  Customer delivery schedules, product adaptation, and industry conditions may affect order realization.

• Sungrow

  One of the covered names in the report's company model universe, tied to global ESS industry conditions

  Strengths

  Demand for ESS systems and inverters could be supported by global expansion in energy storage projects.

  Weaknesses

  No new company-specific fundamental events were provided in this week's main text.

  Comparison

  Compared with cell manufacturers, Sungrow is more exposed to the energy storage system and power electronics segments.

  Risks

  Price competition in energy storage systems, overseas policy, and project delivery risks need to be tracked.

• Tianqi Lithium

  A lithium resource name affected by battery demand and lithium price trends

  Strengths

  Expansion in ESS and EV demand supports medium-term lithium demand.

  Weaknesses

  The report's pricing table shows that some lithium prices still face short-term month-over-month downward pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with battery manufacturers, lithium miners are more sensitive to upstream price cycles.

  Risks

  Lithium price volatility, supply additions, and downstream destocking will affect earnings elasticity.

Key data

• Potential supply agreement between Samsung SDI and Tesla ESSKRW 3–5 trillionSamsung SDI plans to build a dedicated LFP production line for Tesla ESS at its StarPlus Energy plant in Indiana. The 200Ah line is expected to start production by the end of 2026, and the 300Ah line is expected to start production in 2Q27.
• Planned capacity of the Hyundai-SK Georgia battery plant35 GWh/yearThe plant represents about USD 5 billion of investment, can support annual demand for about 300,000 EVs, and will supply Hyundai's EV plant in Savannah.
• Final plan for Google's Steel River Energy Center2.5 GW solar + 2.9 GWh storageLG Energy Solution will supply North America-made JF2 LFP battery systems to support AI data center-related power demand.
• Korean AI grid ESS project640 MWh total capacity, of which Samsung SDI won 420 MWhSamsung SDI secured about 66% of awarded capacity. The project serves grid congestion relief and renewable energy integration.
• Share of new environmentally friendly vehicle registrations in Korea50.4%In 1H26, registrations of environmentally friendly vehicles in Korea reached 429,163 units, of which EV registrations rose 112.6% YoY to 198,969 units.
• Gotion High-Tech and SANY orderMore than 10 GWhThe order runs through 2027 and focuses on battery applications for new energy heavy trucks and construction machinery.
• Envision AESC Yichang energy storage gigafactory100+ GWhThe company said the base covers the full value chain from cells to system integration, with its first product being a 790 Ah energy storage cell.
• CATL and Alfen sodium-ion energy storage agreement5 GWhTener Sodium sodium-ion ESS is planned for deployment in the Netherlands and Western Europe starting in 2027.
• Zelestra Italy energy storage project500 MW/2 GWhEnBW will use the remaining 60% of the project's capacity. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations starting by the end of 2028.
• LFP spot cell costUS$60/kWhThe report's commodity price table shows LFP cell costs were flat week over week and down about 2% month over month.
• LFP spot battery pack costUS$76/kWhThe report's commodity price table shows LFP battery pack costs were flat week over week, up about 1% month over month, and up about 3% over one year.

Impact & implications

For investment research, the implication is that the battery industry's demand structure is expanding beyond pure passenger EV dependence into grid storage, AI data center backup power, commercial vehicles, construction machinery, battery swapping networks, and solar-plus-storage projects. Korean battery manufacturers have competitive advantages in North American localization and high-safety applications; Chinese companies continue to strengthen their presence in scaled manufacturing, new technology pathways, and overseas project acquisition; and European and U.S. policies will continue to affect capacity layout and supply chain choices. In the short term, attention should focus on battery material price fluctuations and the pace of EV demand, while in the medium term, ESS order conversion, technology commercialization, and changes in regional trade policies deserve closer tracking.

Risks

• If U.S. EV demand slows, the ramp-up of North American battery capacity and realization of Hyundai- and Tesla-related orders may come in below expectations.
• Battery material price fluctuations may affect the margins of battery makers and materials companies, especially for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and cathode/anode materials.
• ESS projects are usually affected by permitting, grid connection, financing, customer offtake agreements, and construction cycles, so announced scale does not equal immediate revenue.
• Sodium-ion and solid-state batteries are still at an early stage of commercialization, and their technical performance, cost, lifespan, and mass-production yield still need validation.
• Trade policy, localization rules, and IRA compliance requirements may reshape the global battery supply chain layout and customer selection.
• Power demand from AI data centers and UPS battery demand are growing quickly, but safety certifications, fire safety standards, and customer procurement cycles may affect the pace of scaling.

What to watch

• Progress of Samsung SDI's dedicated LFP production line for Tesla ESS in the U.S. toward start-up at end-2026 and in 2Q27.
• The ramp-up speed of the Hyundai-SK Georgia battery plant's 35 GWh annual capacity and changes in U.S. EV sales.
• LGES's supply pace for Tesla and Google's solar-plus-storage projects, as well as the competitive landscape for North American LFP systems.
• Commercialization progress of CATL Tener Sodium's 5 GWh deployment in the Netherlands and Western Europe.
• Follow-on expansion of Korean AI grid ESS projects and shifts in share for Samsung SDI, LGES, and SK On.
• Europe's 2040 electrification targets and their policy pull for EVs, heat pumps, charging, energy storage, and grid investment.
• Weekly and monthly changes in lithium salts, LFP/NMC cells, and battery pack costs.
• The transition of solid-state battery equipment, pilot lines, and industrial bases from R&D validation to mass-production orders.