Goldman Sachs maintains a structurally bullish view on gold, but warns of short-term liquidation risk

Overview

This report is a precious metals strategy commentary by Goldman Sachs on gold. Its core view is that the structural bullish case for gold remains intact, with the target price maintained at $5,400/toz by end-2026; however, caution is needed in short-term trading, as geopolitical shocks, cross-asset corrections, and position liquidations could create episodic downside pressure.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes gold's rise is primarily driven by three factors: central banks' continued reserve diversification, normalization from currently relatively low speculative positioning, and a 50bp Fed rate cut as expected by its economists. At the same time, the report emphasizes that risks diverge by horizon: in the short term, if Hormuz-related disruptions continue and trigger further adjustments in bond or equity prices, gold may be forced into liquidation; in the medium term, if events related to Iran and other geopolitical issues increase safe-haven and de-dollarization motives, upside risks to gold will become more prominent.

Analysis framework

The report combines Goldman Sachs' central bank conference survey, central bank gold-buying nowcasts, CFTC speculative positioning, macro rate expectations, and geopolitical scenario analysis to assess the path of gold prices. Its analytical focus is not on the fundamentals of a single company, but on making a strategic judgment around the supply-demand balance, positioning, and macro risk premium of gold as an asset class.

Methodology notes

• Commodity StrategyCentral Bank Reserve Diversification Framework

  Central bank gold purchases and changes in global reserve structure

  The report treats central bank gold buying as the core variable supporting gold in the medium term, and uses Goldman Sachs' central bank conference survey results and monthly gold-buying assumptions to assess reserve diversification demand.

• Positioning AnalysisSpeculative Position Normalization Framework

  Net speculative positioning percentile

  The report notes that net speculative gold positioning has fallen to about the 41st percentile, implying that some prior positioning and bullish options pressure has already been cleared, but further liquidation could still occur if cross-asset risks continue to intensify.

• Macro Scenario AnalysisShort-Term Downside and Medium-Term Upside Scenario Framework

  Risk skew changes across horizons

  The report distinguishes between short-term and medium-term risks: short-term downside risk comes from liquidity-driven liquidation triggered by geopolitical disruptions and bond/equity corrections; medium-term upside risk comes from stronger gold diversification demand and concerns about Western fiscal sustainability.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Gold

  Core asset under research

  Strengths

  Central bank reserve diversification, potential rate cuts, normalization of speculative positioning, and geopolitical safe-haven demand together provide support.

  Weaknesses

  In the short term, it may still be affected by cross-asset corrections and private-sector liquidation.

  Comparison

  Compared with a single stock or sector, gold in this report is analyzed as a macro and reserve allocation asset.

  Risks

  Persistent disruptions around Hormuz, further corrections in bonds or equities, forced gold liquidation, and central bank gold buying below assumptions.

• Precious Metals

  Thematic asset class

  Strengths

  Has macro allocation significance amid geopolitical uncertainty and reserve diversification.

  Weaknesses

  Prices may be affected by positioning, options demand, and short-term swings in risk appetite.

  Comparison

  The report focuses on gold and does not provide equally in-depth views on other precious metals.

  Risks

  If gold price volatility becomes severe, the pace of central bank purchases may slow temporarily.

Key data

• Gold target price$5,400/toz by end-2026Goldman Sachs maintains its gold price forecast through end-2026.
• Expected Fed rate cut50bpThe magnitude of rate cuts expected by Goldman Sachs economists, seen as a modest supporting factor for gold prices.
• 2026 central bank gold-buying assumption60吨/月Despite weak February nowcasts, Goldman Sachs maintains this monthly average gold-buying assumption.
• February central bank gold-buying nowcast2吨The report believes the weakness may reflect a pause in central bank purchases during periods of extreme price volatility.
• Share of respondent central banks expecting global gold reserves to rise约70%From the Goldman Sachs central bank conference survey on April 23, 2026, with a sample size of 29 respondents.
• Share of respondent central banks expecting global gold reserves to remain unchanged约25%From the same survey.
• Share of respondent central banks expecting gold prices above $5,000/toz in one year约70%From the Goldman Sachs central bank conference survey.
• Net speculative positioning约第41百分位Source: CFTC and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report supports treating gold as a medium-term structural allocation asset, but does not recommend ignoring short-term volatility and liquidation pressure. If central bank gold buying and reserve diversification continue, the medium-term upward path for gold remains supported; however, in an environment of risk-asset corrections, geopolitical conflict disruptions, or liquidity pressure, gold may also be used as a source of liquidity and face short-term selling.

Risks

• Short-term risks are skewed to the downside; if gold continues to be affected by disruptions around Hormuz and corrections in bonds or equities, further liquidation may occur.
• Actual central bank gold buying may be weaker than the assumed 60 tonnes per month.
• If the private sector continues to reduce gold holdings, it will weaken the base case.
• Geopolitical and fiscal sustainability narratives may amplify volatility and make options demand and positioning changes harder to predict.
• This report does not constitute personalized investment advice, and price forecasts may be adjusted as market information changes.

What to watch

• Whether central bank gold buying in 2026 approaches the assumption of 60 tonnes per month.
• Whether expectations for global central bank gold reserves continue to rise.
• Whether the Fed cuts rates by 50bp as expected.
• Whether CFTC net speculative gold positioning continues to normalize from about the 41st percentile.
• Disruptions related to Hormuz, events related to Iran, and other geopolitical developments.
• Whether bond and equity markets correct further and trigger liquidity-driven gold liquidation.