Hesai Open Day showcased 6D LiDAR and spatial intelligence hardware, with robotics TAM expansion supporting the Buy thesis
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Hesai Open Day showcased 6D LiDAR and spatial intelligence hardware, with robotics TAM expansion supporting the Buy thesis
Goldman Sachs believes Hesai has demonstrated its capabilities for continued innovation and application expansion through its Picasso SPAD-SoC, Kosmo, and robotics vertical deployment, and maintains a Buy rating on 2525.HK/HSAI.
- Picasso is Hesai's fifth-generation in-house chip platform. Its 6D LiDAR ultra-light-sensitive SPAD-SoC integrates spatial XYZ and color RGB information at the chip level and can output colored LiDAR point clouds.
- The ETX platform equipped with Picasso is expected to enter mass production in 2H26. Management mentioned a maximum detection range of 600 meters, up to 4,320 channels, and the ability to identify a 15cm*25cm small wooden block within 150 meters.
- Kosmo is positioned as spatial intelligence AI hardware, initially targeting small B-end customers in immersive interaction, filming, and gaming, and in the long term may become a 3D camera for consumer devices such as smartphones and AI glasses.
- Management believes the robotics LiDAR application market is about 6 times the size of automotive LiDAR. Combined 2026E shipments across related vertical scenarios are about 52 million units, or about 2 million units excluding two-wheeled electric vehicles.
- The target price is HK$273 for H shares and US$35 for the ADR, implying 46.8% and 50.5% upside respectively versus prices of HK$186 and US$23.25.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report summarizes Goldman Sachs' key views after attending Hesai's 2026 Investor & Tech Open Day. The company launched the fifth-generation in-house Picasso chip platform and Kosmo spatial intelligence AI hardware, and systematically showcased the TAM potential of robotics LiDAR in scenarios including robotic lawn mowers, urban delivery, commercial cleaning, warehousing, humanoid robots, and two-wheeled electric vehicles. The report believes the event reinforced Hesai's ability to continue innovating, broaden application scenarios, and expand its potential addressable market.
Core views
The core view is that Hesai not only benefits from NOA penetration in China's NEV market, volume ramp-up of low-cost LiDAR products, and overseas ADAS nomination opportunities, but also has potential for incremental orders in global robotaxi and robotics vertical scenarios. Goldman Sachs believes the company has competitive advantages in the robotics supply chain based on its LiDAR technology, engineering capability, manufacturing know-how, miniaturization capability, and low-power 3D reconstruction experience. The company's valuation remains attractive relative to its roughly 80% earnings growth expected in 2026E, and therefore the Buy rating is maintained.
Analysis framework
The report uses a combination of event commentary and investment thesis analysis: it first analyzes the Picasso, Kosmo, and robotics TAM unveiled at the Open Day, then combines management disclosures on mass production timing, commercialization path, partners, and vertical industry shipment volumes, and finally evaluates the stock's attractiveness using target price, earnings forecasts, valuation multiples, and risk factors.
Methodology notes
The target price uses 20x 2030E non-GAAP EPS and discounts it back to 2026E using an 11% cost of equity.
This method links long-term earnings power with current valuation to reflect the company's long-term profit potential after growth in its LiDAR, ADAS, and robotics businesses.
Goldman Sachs Factor Profile compares stock attributes across four dimensions: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated.
Growth is based on forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; Financial Returns is based on ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; Multiple is based on valuation metrics such as P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA; Integrated combines growth, returns, and valuation.
M&A Rank assesses the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target on a scale of 1 to 3, with 3 representing low probability.
The report discloses Hesai's M&A Rank as 3, which usually indicates a low acquisition probability and no material impact on the target price.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Hesai Group (H) / 2525.HKPrimary covered target, H shares
- Strengths
- Buy rating; HK$273 target price; 46.8% upside; benefits from LiDAR technology upgrades, expanding robotics TAM, and ADAS/NOA penetration.
- Weaknesses
- Still faces pressure from the pace of LiDAR penetration, competition, and customer pricing.
- Comparison
- Valuation is below the 12-month forward average level, while the report expects about 80% earnings growth in 2026E.
- Risks
- Slower-than-expected LiDAR adoption, intensified competition, customer price-cut pressure, and policy risk.
- Hesai Group (ADR) / HSAIADR trading vehicle of the same company
- Strengths
- Buy rating; US$35 target price; 50.5% upside.
- Weaknesses
- ADR pricing is related to liquidity, market risk, and cross-market valuation volatility.
- Comparison
- Consistent with the H-share target price logic, both are based on 20x 2030E EPS discounted back.
- Risks
- Same fundamental risks as the company, plus ADR market volatility.
- Picasso / ETX platformCore technology and future product platform
- Strengths
- The 6D SPAD-SoC integrates XYZ and RGB information at the chip level; ETX is expected to enter mass production in 2H26 and has performance metrics such as a maximum range of 600 meters and 4,320 channels.
- Weaknesses
- Still requires continued iteration over the next 3-5 years, and there are execution risks in mass production and end-market adoption.
- Comparison
- Management said the industry previously mostly fused 2D images and 3D LiDAR at the device level, while Picasso emphasizes chip-level fusion.
- Risks
- Mass production delays, underwhelming commercialization of performance, or being caught up by competing products.
- KosmoNew spatial intelligence AI hardware business
- Strengths
- Combines Picasso, AI algorithms, and cameras for immersive interaction, filming, gaming, physical AI training, and long-term consumer-grade 3D camera applications.
- Weaknesses
- In the short term it mainly targets small B-end customers, and its commercialization scale and profitability path still need validation.
- Comparison
- Management positions it in the long term as a 3D camera rather than a traditional 3D mapping scanner.
- Risks
- Slower-than-expected customer expansion, new business revenue below expectations, or inability to reach break-even within 2-3 years.
Key data
- H-share target priceHK$27312-month target price for 2525.HK.
- H-share current priceHK$186Price disclosed in the table.
- H-share upside46.8%Calculated from target price HK$273 and price HK$186.
- ADR target priceUS$3512-month target price for HSAI ADR.
- ADR current priceUS$23.25Price disclosed in the table.
- ADR upside50.5%Calculated from target price US$35 and price US$23.25.
- Total 2026E shipments across robotics vertical scenariosabout 52 million unitsIncluding two-wheeled electric vehicles; about 2 million units excluding two-wheeled electric vehicles.
- Global 2026E shipments of robotic lawn mowers1.0-1.5 million unitsBased on company data.
- China 2026E urban delivery shipments100,000 unitsBased on company data; 32,600 units in 2025.
- Global 2026E shipments of commercial cleaning robots42,000 unitsBased on SalesCommerce data.
- Global 2026E shipments of warehouse robots450,000 unitsBased on Intelmarket Research data.
- Global 2026E shipments of humanoid robots51,000 unitsBased on GSe data.
- China 2026E shipments of two-wheeled electric vehicles50 million unitsBased on GSe data.
- Annual cap under Sharpa framework agreementRmb100mnThe agreement period is 2026-03-25 to 2026-12-31, covering supply of LiDAR products and robotic actuators.
- 2026E revenue forecastRmb 4,505.5mnGS Forecast.
- 2026E EPS forecastRmb 5.42GS Forecast.
- 2026E P/E29.3xGS Forecast.
Impact & implications
The investment implication of the report is that Hesai's growth narrative is expanding from automotive LiDAR to broader physical-world perception infrastructure. Picasso enhances sensor information density and nighttime perception capabilities, Kosmo opens up spatial intelligence and 3D content generation scenarios, and the robotics vertical market provides new sources of shipments and revenue. If products gradually enter mass production and commercialization as planned after 2H26, the company's revenue growth, scale effects, and earnings elasticity could strengthen further.
Risks
- LiDAR adoption is slower than expected.
- Industry competition intensifies.
- Customer pricing pressure rises.
- Policy risk.
- New product mass production or commercialization progress falls short of expectations.
- There is uncertainty over demand realization in new robotics and spatial intelligence scenarios.
What to watch
- Mass production progress of the Picasso SoC and ETX platform in 2H26.
- Commercialization orders and revenue contribution from Kosmo targeting small B-end customers in 2H26/2027.
- Validation of LiDAR shipments across vertical scenarios such as robotic lawn mowers, urban delivery, commercial cleaning, warehousing, humanoid robots, and two-wheeled electric vehicles.
- Order progress with partners including Sharpa, Unitree, Dreame, MOVA, Meituan, Zelos, Neolix, Shunfeng, and Dexory.
- China NEV NOA penetration rate and adoption of low-cost LiDAR in mass-market vehicle models.
- Mass production rollout of overseas ADAS nomination projects in 2026E/2027E.
- Quarterly results, new nominations, new OEM model launches, and changes in gross margin/operating leverage.