Perovskite could become the next-generation solar technology, but commercialization still depends on stability and mass-production yields.

Overview

This report focuses on perovskite solar technology. Combining discussions with Bernstein and Tandem PV CEO Scott Wharton with its own research, it evaluates perovskite's efficiency, cost, manufacturing pathways, and commercialization barriers relative to crystalline silicon and CdTe. The report argues that perovskite offers high light-absorption efficiency, processing flexibility, and potential to reduce manufacturing costs, but must prove long-term stability and bankability before entering the utility-scale financing market.

Core views

The core view is that perovskite is the next-generation promise in solar: as a silicon tandem material, it can materially increase module efficiency and potentially reduce the levelized cost of electricity under land, labor, module, and grid-connection constraints. However, its soft ionic lattice also creates chemical vulnerability, with moisture, heat, and the natural environment causing crystal-structure degradation. The report judges that commercialization is most likely around 2028. In the near term, the technology is better suited to high-value or power-constrained applications, while large-scale utility deployment still requires reliable warranties and field data.

Analysis framework

The report combines technology comparisons, industry interviews, and mapping of covered companies. It first compares the material properties, efficiency, manufacturing methods, and reliability of crystalline silicon, CdTe, and perovskite; then distinguishes between 2T monolithic tandem and 4T mechanically stacked architectures; finally, it maps technological progress to related companies including FSLR, TE, and Tandem PV to assess substitution threats, defensive positioning, US manufacturing reshoring, and potential collaboration opportunities.

Methodology notes

• Technology comparisonComparison of crystalline silicon, CdTe, and perovskite

  Relative efficiency, manufacturing maturity, and reliability

  The report broadly characterizes the efficiency of CdTe, crystalline silicon, and perovskite as 20%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. It emphasizes that crystalline silicon has a mature supply chain and extensive long-term field data, CdTe is a fixed-composition thin-film semiconductor, and perovskite is a tunable family of solution-processable thin-film absorber materials.

• Technology pathway2T and 4T perovskite-silicon tandem architectures

  Trade-off between monolithic integration and electrical independence

  The 2T pathway deposits perovskite directly onto a silicon cell, making module and inverter integration simpler, but electrically coupling the two cells and concentrating yield risk. The 4T pathway keeps the perovskite and silicon cells electrically independent and can be compatible with silicon pathways such as TOPCon, HJT, PERC, or IBC.

• Valuation methodSOTP valuation

  First Solar target price methodology

  FSLR valuation uses a sum-of-the-parts approach, including a 9x multiple applied to gross profit excluding tax credits, tax-credit phase-down beginning in 2030, a 10% discount rate for the backlog, a 12% discount rate for the TOPCon licensing option, and a probability-weighted cash component, resulting in a $197/share target price.

• Valuation methodProbability-weighted EBITDA multiple

  T1 Energy target price methodology

  TE valuation uses an 8x multiple based on 2030 EBITDA scenarios of $690MM in the bull case, $560MM in the base case, and $280MM in the bear case, assigned probabilities of 30%, 40%, and 30%, respectively, resulting in a $9/share target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

  Most directly mapped covered company; perovskite progress could affect CdTe's competitive position.

  Strengths

  Has a foundation in CdTe thin-film technology, internal R&D investment, the Evolar acquisition, a perovskite development line in Perrysburg, and a non-exclusive US patent license from Oxford PV.

  Weaknesses

  The Oxford PV license is interpreted in the report as a defensive move, potentially indicating that internal perovskite R&D has not yet reached management's commercialization threshold; the license explicitly excludes crystalline-silicon tandem architectures.

  Comparison

  Perovskite has higher efficiency potential than CdTe and, if the 2028 timeline is achieved, could pose a substitution threat to FSLR.

  Risks

  Adverse outcome in TOPCon litigation, future capacity expansion or utilization below expectations, ongoing import-tariff risk, and accelerating perovskite substitution.

• T1 Energy Inc. (TE)

  Second-order relevance; may form future partnerships with perovskite developers.

  Strengths

  FEOC compliance, eligibility for 45X tax credits, and a US solar-manufacturing narrative aligned with Tandem PV's domestic manufacturing theme.

  Weaknesses

  No direct overlap with perovskite technology itself; near-term impact comes primarily from industrial policy and expectations for potential collaboration.

  Comparison

  TE and Tandem PV are both part of the US capital-intensive solar-manufacturing reshoring theme supported by the IRA/45X, but are not direct competitors.

  Risks

  Changes in policy support, phase-down of 45X tax credits, manufacturing execution risk, and changes in the financing environment.

• Tandem PV

  Private perovskite developer; interview subject and technology case study in the report.

  Strengths

  Uses a 4T architecture in which a perovskite glass layer can be mechanically stacked on an independent silicon cell, offering silicon-pathway agnosticism; its Fremont demonstration manufacturing line opened in April 2026.

  Weaknesses

  The 30.4% demonstration efficiency still requires third-party certification, while commercial-size performance, yield, warranties, and scaled manufacturing remain to be validated.

  Comparison

  Compared with the 2T pathway, the 4T pathway is more flexible and can continue to benefit from efficiency improvements in silicon cells such as TOPCon, HJT, PERC, or IBC.

  Risks

  Large-scale uniformity and yield, long-term degradation, lead-leakage management, and customer acceptance of bankability.

• Perovskite photovoltaic technology

  Thematic asset of the report; a potential next-generation solar technology platform.

  Strengths

  High light-absorption efficiency, tunable materials, and solution processability; as a silicon tandem material, it can increase power generation per unit area and reduce LCOE.

  Weaknesses

  The soft ionic lattice creates chemical vulnerability, making the technology susceptible to degradation from moisture, heat, light exposure, and the natural environment.

  Comparison

  Compared with crystalline silicon, perovskite has less field data and a less mature supply chain; compared with CdTe, perovskite has a more attractive efficiency ceiling but reliability remains less proven.

  Risks

  Lack of 20-plus-year warranties, lead toxicity, insufficient encapsulation engineering, and further delays to mass production.

Key data

• Perovskite commercialization timelineAround 2028The report believes large-scale commercialization is most likely around 2028.
• Illustrative efficiency levelsCdTe approximately 20%, crystalline silicon approximately 25%, perovskite approximately 30%The report uses these figures to summarize the approximate efficiency of different solar panel technologies.
• Perovskite tandem efficiency upliftApproximately +30%When perovskite is tandem-integrated with silicon panels, the weight increase is limited but efficiency can improve substantially.
• Crystalline silicon market shareApproximately 90%+ of global panelsCrystalline silicon is the current mainstream photovoltaic technology, with a mature supply chain and many years of field data.
• Tandem PV demonstration efficiency30.4%Internal test result for a 10-square-centimeter demonstration module; third-party certification is underway.
• Tandem PV near-term target28%The goal is to achieve this efficiency at full commercial-module size for utility customers.
• FSLR rating and target priceUnderperform; $197Perovskite is most directly relevant to FSLR, and the Oxford PV license is viewed in the report as a defensive move.
• TE rating and target priceMarket-Perform; $9TE has no direct technological overlap with perovskite, but is related to the theme of US solar-manufacturing reshoring.

Impact & implications

If perovskite stability and mass-production issues are resolved, high-efficiency modules would initially benefit from land, grid-connection, and power-constrained applications and could reshape the competitive landscape for solar modules. For FSLR, perovskite could be both an efficiency-enhancement opportunity and a threat to CdTe's technology position; for TE, the near-term impact is more related to the US manufacturing-reshoring narrative and potential collaboration options than to direct technological substitution.

Risks

• Perovskite may experience degradation under moisture, heat, and light exposure due to ion migration, halide segregation, and water-vapor ingress.
• High-efficiency formulations typically use lead halides, creating a risk of lead leakage from damaged or improperly encapsulated modules.
• Utility projects require asset lives of 20-30 years, but perovskite's commercial shipment history is short and lacks sufficient field data to support 20-year warranties.
• Uniformity and yield risks in large-scale manufacturing could further delay the mass-production timeline.
• FSLR faces uncertainty from TOPCon litigation, tax-credit phase-downs, import tariffs, and perovskite substitution.
• TE faces complexity in investment judgment arising from policy subsidies, US manufacturing execution, and disclosures regarding potential investment-banking relationships.

What to watch

• Whether perovskite companies can provide 20-year warranties and reliable third-party field data in 2027-2028.
• Third-party certification of Tandem PV's 30.4% demonstration-module efficiency and progress toward its 28% commercial-size target.
• Mass-production timelines for Oxford PV, LONGi, Chinese manufacturers, GCL, and Tandem PV across the 2T and 4T pathways.
• Progress on FSLR's Perrysburg perovskite development line, Evolar integration, and the Oxford PV license.
• The impact of US IRA/45X, FEOC compliance, and domestic solar-manufacturing policies on TE and potential partnerships.
• Acceptance of premiums for high-efficiency modules in power-constrained applications such as land, grid interconnection, and data-center rooftops.