GSK 2Q26 expected to be broadly in line; HIV strong, but portfolio update is key

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' preview ahead of GSK Plc's 2Q26 results release. The company will publish its 2Q26 results at 7:00 a.m. British Summer Time on July 28, 2026. Goldman Sachs expects quarterly performance to be broadly in line and slightly above market consensus, primarily supported by strong HIV performance. However, investors are more likely to focus on the accompanying portfolio and pipeline update to assess whether the gap between the company's medium-term 2031 revenue target of more than £40bn and current consensus of £34.9bn can narrow.

Core views

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral view. Positive factors include GSK's delivery of results above expectations for several consecutive quarters, resilient HIV performance, Specialty Medicines as a strong FY26 growth driver, and easing foreign-exchange headwinds. Factors limiting upside include uncertainty around vaccine demand, slower-than-expected ramp-up of recently launched assets such as Blenrep, reduced capital-return support after completion of the buyback program, and near-term binary risk from the camlipixant CALM-1/-2 readouts in 2H26. Goldman Sachs believes further upside for the remainder of the year is limited unless there is a clear pipeline surprise.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates GSK's 2Q26 results, FY26 guidance, pipeline catalysts, and 12-month target price using Visible Alpha Consensus Data, Goldman Sachs' proprietary forecasts, IQVIA prescription trends, FDA FAERS adverse-event reports, updated foreign-exchange assumptions, product-level sales adjustments, and a valuation model. Valuation uses a 50/50 blend of DCF and P/E methods.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsBlended DCF and P/E Valuation

  The 12-month target price is derived by assigning equal 50% weights to DCF and P/E valuation.

  The DCF-implied value is 1,770p, assuming an 8.0% WACC and 0% terminal growth. The multiple-based value is 2,100p, based on 10.5x 2027E EPS, resulting in a blended 12-month target price of 1,890p / $50 ADR.

• Operating TrackingIQVIA Prescription Trend Analysis

  Key US-market products' TRx, sales trends, WAC, and historical sales mix are used to assess product momentum.

  This method is used to update near-term sales assumptions for key assets including HIV, Nucala, Arexvy, Ojjaara, Benlysta, Shingrix, Trelegy, and Jemperli.

• Consensus ComparisonVisible Alpha Consensus Data Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' forecasts are compared with market consensus to identify deviations in revenue, profit, and EPS.

  Goldman Sachs' 2Q26 revenue, core operating profit, and core EPS forecasts are each approximately 1% above Visible Alpha consensus, while FY26 forecasts are broadly in line with consensus.

• Safety MonitoringFAERS Adverse-Event Tracking

  Changes in adverse events associated with Apretude and Yeztugo are monitored through the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System.

  Cumulative adverse-event reports for Apretude increased from 14 in January 2026 to 206 in June 2026, while Yeztugo had 454 reports. Goldman Sachs believes continued monitoring is necessary to determine whether real-world tolerability remains a differentiating advantage for Apretude.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• GSK Plc / GSK.L

  Core covered asset

  Strengths

  Strong HIV prescription trends, solid Specialty Medicines growth, a robust historical execution record, and improving FY26 foreign-exchange headwinds.

  Weaknesses

  Vaccine operations face pressure from high bases and soft trends in the US market; recently launched assets have seen limited ramp-up, and capital-return support will decline after completion of the buyback.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' 2Q26 revenue, core operating profit, and EPS forecasts are each approximately 1% above Visible Alpha consensus; average 2026-30E revenue is approximately 1% below consensus, while core operating profit and EPS are approximately 1% above consensus.

  Risks

  camlipixant CALM-1/-2 clinical readouts, switching dynamics for long-acting HIV regimens, Arexvy's market leadership, execution of Blenrep and the oncology portfolio, ex-US Shingrix penetration, and clinical-data risk.

• GSK Plc ADR / GSK

  ADR asset of the same company

  Strengths

  The $50 ADR target price corresponds to a 1,890p target price for the London-listed shares.

  Weaknesses

  The current price of $52.81 is above the target price, implying approximately 5.3% downside.

  Comparison

  The ADR and GSK Plc ordinary shares both carry a Neutral rating.

  Risks

  In addition to company-specific fundamental risks, the ADR is affected by exchange rates and ADR pricing differentials.

Key data

• 12-month target price1,890p / $50 ADRPreviously 1,870p / $50 ADR; the new target price implies approximately 5% downside versus the current price.
• Current price1,979.5p / $52.81 ADRPrice disclosed on the report cover.
• 2Q26 revenue forecast£8,267mnRevenue growth of 3.8% at constant exchange rates, approximately 1% above Visible Alpha consensus of £8,223mn.
• 2Q26 core operating profit forecast£2,684mnApproximately 1% above consensus of £2,656mn, with constant-exchange-rate growth of 2.5%.
• 2Q26 core EPS forecast47.2pApproximately 1% above consensus, with constant-exchange-rate growth of 1.9%.
• FY26 company guidanceRevenue growth of 3%-5%, core operating profit growth of 7%-9%, and core EPS growth of 7%-9%Goldman Sachs expects management to reiterate FY26 guidance.
• Gap to 2031 medium-term revenue target>£40bn target vs consensus of £34.9bnThe company's medium-term revenue target is approximately 15% above aggregated company consensus; the market is focused on whether peak-sales guidance can be achieved.
• Market capitalization and enterprise valueMarket capitalization £80.8bn / $107.1bn; enterprise value £95.3bn / $126.2bnKey data from the report cover.

Impact & implications

The report takes a cautious view of the investment implications. Near-term results may continue to support the investment narrative of stable execution, but valuation already reflects substantial execution advantages. Pipeline updates, positive camlipixant clinical readouts, faster-than-expected Blenrep ramp-up, or stronger-than-expected commercialization of newly launched products could drive upward revisions to medium- and long-term revenue expectations. Conversely, weak vaccine performance, intensifying HIV competition, worsening safety signals, or weaker-than-expected development of the chronic-cough market would limit share-price performance.

Risks

• Changes in competition in the long-acting HIV treatment and PrEP markets, particularly switching dynamics following approval of Yeztugo.
• An increase in Apretude-related FAERS adverse-event reports could weaken the real-world tolerability differentiation narrative.
• Uncertainty around demand for vaccine products such as Arexvy and Shingrix in the US, China, and other overseas markets.
• Commercialization progress for launched assets including Blenrep, Exdensur, Penmenvy, Blujepa, and Nucala COPD could fall below expectations.
• Although the camlipixant CALM-1/-2 readouts are expected to be positive, uncertainty remains around the chronic-cough market opportunity and diagnostic barriers.
• Changes in clinical data, regulatory pathways, and capital allocation could lead to upward or downward revisions to the target price.

What to watch

• The 2Q26 results release on July 28, 2026, and management's commentary on FY26 guidance.
• Portfolio and pipeline updates, particularly camlipixant, Blenrep, Exdensur, Penmenvy, Nucala COPD, and emerging oncology pipeline programs.
• The competitive landscape for HIV LA and PrEP, along with safety and prescription trends for Apretude and Yeztugo.
• Vaccine portfolio performance, especially demand for Arexvy and Shingrix in the US, China, and ex-US markets.
• Capital-allocation priorities following the Nuvalent acquisition, the cash outflow for 35Pharma, and completion of the buyback.
• Changes in FY26 foreign-exchange assumptions and their impact on revenue and core profit.