ASMPT appoints new CEO; JPMorgan is positive on the continuation of the advanced packaging theme

Overview

This report focuses on ASMPT Ltd's new CEO appointment and its impact on the company's advanced packaging strategy. JPMorgan believes new CEO Bassel Haddad has experience in foundry and advanced packaging businesses, that the management transition is unlikely to disrupt short-term operations, and that the company will continue to focus on advanced packaging, improve operational efficiency, and gradually exit areas such as SMT that have weaker synergies with its core business.

Core views

The core view is that ASMPT's advanced packaging and TCB momentum remain strong. The report expects CoWoS and HBM capacity expansion, C2S/C2W orders from TSMC and OSATs, TCB orders related to data center CPUs from global IDMs, and the ramp-up of HBM4 orders to support continued business growth. The report also believes ASMPT has a leading position in Fluxless TCB technology, with an opportunity to capture a 30%-35% share among Korean customers and potentially expand to additional new customers.

Analysis framework

The report uses an analysis approach that combines event-driven and fundamental factors: first assessing the impact of the CEO change on strategic continuity, then judging mid-term earnings growth and catalysts from dimensions including TCB orders, advanced packaging capacity expansion, mainstream semiconductor recovery, photonics demand, and potential divestment of SMT. For valuation, it uses about 30x 12-month forward EPS, corresponding to the average level over the past 10 years.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsForward P/E Valuation

  Approximately 30x 12-month forward EPS

  The Jun-27 target price of HK$225 is based on about 30x 12-month forward EPS, a multiple corresponding to the average level over the past 10 years.

• Catalyst AnalysisSupply Chain Orders and TAM Expansion

  TCB, CoWoS, HBM, OSAT capacity expansion

  The report assesses TCB market space and ASMPT's share opportunities through advanced packaging capacity expansion, the migration pace of HBM stacking, OSAT 2.5D packaging capacity, and IDM orders.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK)

  Covered company in the report; JPMorgan assigns an Overweight rating.

  Strengths

  Leading in advanced packaging and Fluxless TCB technology, benefiting from CoWoS, HBM, OSAT capacity expansion, and AI server-related demand; cost control brings operating leverage.

  Weaknesses

  The SMT business has weaker synergies, demand for smartphones and PCs remains soft, and the recovery in mainstream semiconductors still needs validation.

  Comparison

  Relative to competitors, the report highlights ASMPT's technological leadership in the migration to Fluxless TCB for HBM4E, and if competitors fail to catch up, the competitive landscape could narrow.

  Risks

  A weaker-than-expected macro environment in 2026 could affect the sustainability of the mainstream semiconductor recovery.

Key data

• Current share priceHK$161.20Price as of July 20, 2026.
• Target priceHK$225.00Jun-27 target price.
• Implied upsideApproximately 39.6%Calculated from the HK$225.00 target price and the HK$161.20 current price.
• RatingOverweightThe report maintains an overweight view.
• Potential TCB customer share30%-35%The report believes ASMPT could achieve this share among Korean customers by leveraging its Fluxless TCB technology.

Impact & implications

For investors, the CEO appointment reinforces expectations that ASMPT will continue to tilt toward advanced packaging, reducing uncertainty over strategic direction. If CoWoS, HBM, C2S/C2W, and data center CPU-related TCB orders continue to materialize, the logic for ASMPT's earnings growth and valuation upside could strengthen further; an exit from or divestment of the SMT business could also release capital and support reinvestment into advanced packaging.

Risks

• A weaker macro environment in 2026 could affect the sustainability of the mainstream semiconductor recovery.
• Weak demand for smartphones and PCs could drag on the recovery of some mainstream businesses.
• If competitors catch up in Fluxless TCB or the HBM4E migration faster than expected, ASMPT's room for share gains could be limited.
• Strategic exit options for SMT carry uncertainty in execution timing and transaction terms.

What to watch

• Updates on TCB business orders and guidance at the 2Q26 earnings call on July 29, 2026.
• Progress of C2S/C2W and data center CPU-related orders from TSMC, OSATs, and global IDM customers.
• The ramp-up speed of HBM4 orders and whether the migration of HBM4E stack height is slower than expected.
• New advanced packaging capacity additions in China, such as related expansions by JCET and SJ Semi.
• Potential divestment or exit plans for the SMT business and the direction of capital redeployment.