Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on ASML and raises target price to €1,570

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs company research report on ASML Holding. The core conclusion is that AI-driven demand for advanced logic chips and memory remains strong, driving demand for EUV equipment, capacity expansion, and higher High-NA EUV adoption; on this basis, Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating and raises the target price.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes ASML's growth drivers come from four areas: first, AI-related demand is driving higher demand for low-NA and high-NA EUV equipment; second, orders and capital expenditure plans from memory and logic chip customers support capacity expansion; third, an improved product mix, upgrade business, and pricing power are expected to support margins; fourth, High-NA EUV technology is progressing smoothly, customer adoption is increasing, and long-term technological barriers remain solid.

Analysis framework

The report combines the company's first-quarter results, management guidance, Visible Alpha expectations, FactSet market data, and Goldman Sachs' own forecasting model to raise 2026-2030 revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and EPS forecasts, and uses 37x FY2027 P/E as the valuation basis for the target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E Target Price Method

  37x FY2027 P/E

  Goldman Sachs sets the 12-month target price at €1,570 based on 37x FY2027 P/E. The valuation multiple remains unchanged, and the higher target price mainly comes from upward earnings revisions.

• Fundamental ForecastingRevenue and Profit Forecast Revisions

  2026-2030 forecast upgrades

  Goldman Sachs raised its revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and EPS forecasts due to AI-related demand for advanced logic and memory, higher ASPs for low-nanometer lithography equipment, and an improved product mix.

• Quantitative/FactorGS Factor Analysis

  growth potential, financial returns, valuation, and composite indicators

  Goldman Sachs factor analysis compares key stock metrics with the market and peers to form growth, return, valuation, and composite percentiles, helping assess the stock's relative investment value.

• M&A AssessmentGoldman Sachs M&A Ranking Framework

  M&A probability score 1-3

  The M&A ranking is used to assess the likelihood of a company being acquired; the chart in the report shows ASML has an M&A ranking of 3, meaning a low probability of being acquired, which typically does not affect the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML Holding / ASML.AS

  Core covered name; Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy and raises target price

  Strengths

  Strong AI demand, EUV capacity expansion, solid progress in High-NA technology, clear long-term customer orders and capex commitments, and improved product mix.

  Weaknesses

  Short-term output ramp-up brings cost pressure from hiring, process optimization, and efficiency losses; gross margin guidance has not yet been raised.

  Comparison

  ASML's rating is assessed relative to European technology and semiconductor-related companies within its coverage universe, including ASM International, BE Semiconductor Industries, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and others.

  Risks

  Delays in EUV technology development, cyclical fluctuations in capital expenditure, adverse market share changes, weaker demand in China, or industry demand falling short of expectations.

Key data

• 1Q 2026 EBIT€3.2 billion4% above Visible Alpha expectations.
• 2026 revenue guidance€36 billion-€40 billionPreviously €34 billion-€39 billion; the midpoint is broadly in line with market expectations, while the upper end is about 5% above market expectations.
• 2026 gross margin guidance51%-53%The company maintained its original gross margin range.
• EUV capacity targetAbout 60 units in 2026, at least 80 units in 2027The 2027 target is above the previous expectation of about 72 units and is supported by customer orders and demand commitments.
• High-NA EUV technology progressMore than 500,000 wafers processed, availability above 80%The report believes improved customer economics and ecosystem maturity will drive higher adoption.
• Revenue and gross profit forecast revisionsRaised by about 6%-10% for 2026-2030Reflects improved expectations for AI-related demand and product mix.
• EBIT forecast revisionsRaised by 5%-12% for 2026-2030Based on updated revenue and operating cost forecasts.
• EPS forecast revisions+6% to +12%Takes into account EBIT and share count assumptions.
• 12-month target price€1,570The previous target price was €1,450.
• Current price and upside€1,230; 27.6%Price as of the close on April 15, 2026.

Impact & implications

If AI capital spending, HBM, and advanced logic chip demand continue to materialize, ASML may benefit from EUV equipment shipments, upgrade business, higher unit selling prices, and greater High-NA technology penetration; this would enhance its medium- to long-term revenue and profit elasticity and support a higher valuation.

Risks

• Delays in EUV technology development or High-NA rollout progress.
• Semiconductor capital expenditure is cyclical, and the pace of customer capacity expansion may slow.
• Adverse changes in market share.
• Short-term capacity ramp-up may bring cost pressures from hiring, production process optimization, and efficiency losses.
• If demand in the Chinese market is weaker than expected, revenue elasticity may be reduced, although the report believes demand from other regions can partly offset this.

What to watch

• Whether 2026 revenue can approach or reach the upper end of the €40 billion guidance.
• The pace of EUV equipment capacity ramp-up to about 60 units in 2026 and at least 80 units in 2027.
• High-NA EUV customer adoption, availability, and ecosystem maturity.
• Whether capital spending related to HBM, advanced logic, and the 2nm process continues.
• Whether gross margin can benefit from product mix, upgrade business, and pricing power after cost pressures.
• Whether China revenue contribution remains around 20%, and whether non-China demand can offset potential declines.