Asian Humanoid Robot Industry Gains Momentum, Sentiment Warms Up Significantly

Overview

This report, released by Bernstein as 'Asian Emerging Robots: Barometer (April-May 2026)', focuses on the latest developments, changes in market sentiment, and key fundamental data of the humanoid robot industry. Covering major players in China and globally, the core conclusion is that the industry is transitioning from concept validation to a critical phase of commercialization implementation, with policy, capital, and technological advancements resonating together. Market sentiment showed明显的修复 in May, but short-term transactions are still affected by sentiment fluctuations.

Core views

The report argues that the Asian humanoid robot industry achieved substantial breakthroughs from April to May 2026. In China, Unitree entered the stage of listing committee review (approved on June 1st), while Deep Robotics and Leju Robot formally submitted IPO documents. The combined revenue of these three companies reached $2.51 billion for FY2025, providing verifiable operating data for the first time; Overseas, Boston Dynamics集中展示人形机器人足球技能 and Figure AI完成了不间断分拣25万包裹的200小时直播, both being regarded as important technical validations and signals of commercialization. In terms of market sentiment, there was a notable rebound in May, mainly because the uncertainty of earnings dissipated at the end of April, and the market generally expected Tesla's Optimus Gen3 to be launched in July-August. However, related stocks回调 at the end of May due to short-term profit-taking, indicating the volatility of sentiment. Fundamental data shows divergence: industrial robot production grew by 15% year-on-year, Hesai's long-distance ADAS lidar shipments surged by 177% year-on-year, but home扫地机器人销量下降了26%, reflecting huge differences in the prosperity of different细分赛道.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a ‘three-dimensional analysis framework’ of ‘event-driven + sentiment tracking + data validation’. Firstly, it梳理 global key events in the field of humanoid robots from April to May (such as IPO progress, product launches, major collaborations) to identify core catalysts; secondly, it tracks trends in market sentiment through quantifiable indicators, judging sentiment turning points in combination with investor behavior (such as transaction volatility, fund flow); finally, it systematically整合 upstream and downstream high-frequency data of the industrial chain (such as industrial robot production, lidar shipments, new energy vehicle wholesale volume, raw material prices, etc.), cross-verifying the real industry prosperity to avoid distortion of single sentiment indicators. This method emphasizes grounding macro narratives into verifiable micro evidence chains.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  The report implicitly takes supply-side breakthroughs (IPOs, mass production capability, technology demonstrations) as the core driving force at this stage, rather than relying solely on the release of downstream demand

  For the humanoid robot industry in the early stages of industrialization, the report pays more attention to whether upstream technology companies can achieve productization, scaling, and capitalization, which determines whether the industry can跨越‘死亡之谷’, so supply-side progress is taken as the primary analytical dimension.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission of the Industrial Chain

  Assessing the health of the industry by tracking the data联动性 of upstream components (LiDAR, reducers), midstream whole machines (humanoid robots), and downstream applications (logistics, manufacturing)

  For example, the high growth of Hesai's lidar shipments and the increase in Leader Drive's reducer production form印证, while the decline in扫地机器人sales indicates that consumer-level applications have not opened up yet. This跨环节data comparison can effectively identify the real prosperity主线.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hesai

  Lidar leader, core perception component supplier for humanoid robots, with high shipment volumes and market share

  Strengths

  April year-on-year growth of long-distance ADAS lidar shipments +177%, market share稳定 at 50%

  Weaknesses

  Risk of escalated US sanctions and slower-than-expected profitability improvement

  Comparison

  Significantly领先 competitors like RoboSense, Valeo in the lidar domain

  Risks

  Severe in-vehicle accidents causing lidar failure, escalation of US sanctions, loss of key clients, lower-than-expected profitability improvement

• Tuopu

  Automotive parts leader, potential supplier of joint actuators for humanoid robots, experiencing high growth in air suspension business

  Strengths

  Air suspension shipments grew by 114% year-on-year in April, supported by 10% growth in new energy vehicle wholesales

  Weaknesses

  Highly dependent on Tesla's progress in automotive and robotics fields, sensitive to geopolitical risks

  Comparison

  Quickly increasing its share in the air suspension segment, forming differentiated competition with traditional auto parts firms like Fuyao Glass

  Risks

  Tesla failing to meet expectations, lack of humanoid robot breakthroughs, slowing auto sales, geopolitical impacts (export controls on magnetic materials)

• Shuanghuan

  Automotive transmission system supplier, potential beneficiary of joint reducers for humanoid robots, amidst high growth in industrial robot production

  Strengths

  Industrial robot production grew by 15% year-on-year in April, supporting the core segments of the industrial chain

  Weaknesses

  Floor-cleaning robot sales fell by 26% year-on-year, revealing weakness in the consumer-grade robot market

  Comparison

  Cost and scale advantages in the transmission system area, but no disclosed orders yet in humanoid robotics

  Risks

  Tesla's robots falling short of expectations, lack of humanoid robot breakthroughs, slowdowns in new energy vehicles and floor-cleaning robot sales, delays in European expansion

• Sanhua

  Thermal management leader, potential supplier of thermal management systems for humanoid robots, under pressure in air conditioning and new energy vehicle businesses

  Strengths

  Strong technical积累 in thermal management, potential to切入 robot-dedicated cooling solutions

  Weaknesses

  Domestic sales and exports of air conditioners expected to fall by 13% year-on-year in 2Q26, new energy vehicle sales also under pressure

  Comparison

  More balanced business compared to pure robotics targets, but growth constrained by weakness in traditional mainstay sectors

  Risks

  Tesla failing to meet expectations, lack of humanoid robot breakthroughs, slowdowns in new energy vehicles and air conditioner sales, geopolitical impacts

• Leader Drive

  Precision reducer leader, direct supplier of core components for humanoid robots, experiencing explosive growth in reducer production

  Strengths

  Robot reducer production grew by 38% year-on-year in April, 91% in Q1, directly benefiting from industrial ramp-up

  Weaknesses

  No confirmed orders yet from mainstream international humanoid robot manufacturers, commercialization进度待验证

  Comparison

  Technically leading among domestic reducer makers, but still有差距with international giants like Japan's Harmonic Drive

  Risks

  Failure to进入 mainstream humanoid robot maker supply chains, policy support不及预期, harmonic reducer share increases slower than expected, ball screw commercialization failure

Key data

• Unitree IPO ProgressPassed listing committee review on June 1stFirst Chinese company to enter the listing review stage in the humanoid robot sector
• Revenue of Three Humanoid Robot Companies for FY2025RMB1.699 billion / RMB337 million / RMB258 millionCorresponding to Unitree, Deep Robotics, Leju Robot respectively, totaling about $2.51 billion
• Year-on-Year Growth of Hesai Long-Distance ADAS Lidar Shipments+177%Growth rate in April, slightly slower compared to March (+213%), with a stable market share of 50%
• Year-on-Year Growth of China's Industrial Robot Production+15%Data for April, continuing the high growth trend
• Year-on-Year Change in China's Floor-Cleaning Robot Sales-26%Data for April, further deterioration compared to March (-22%), reflecting weak consumer demand

Impact & implications

The report suggests that the humanoid robot industry is at a crucial turning point shifting from thematic investment to performance-driven. For related listed companies, those with core technological barriers (like Hesai's lidar), deeply绑定 with leading customers (like Tuopu's air suspension), or positioned in the core supply chain (like Leader Drive's reducers) will benefit first; whereas companies lacking clear commercialization paths or overly dependent on single application scenarios (like home cleaning) face valuation pressure. This trend will accelerate industry consolidation and drive capital towards companies truly具备 engineering and mass production capabilities.

Risks

• Escalation of US tech sanctions against China, especially targeting core components like lidars and AI chips
• Progress of Tesla's Optimus falling short of market expectations, leading to valuation adjustments in the sector
• Lack of technological breakthroughs in humanoid robots or slower-than-expected commercialization pace, resulting in waning investor interest
• Geopolitical risks (like tariffs, export controls on magnetic materials) impacting the supply chain
• Sustained high prices of upstream raw materials (copper, aluminum, polypropylene) squeezing profits of midstream manufacturers

What to watch

• Formal launch and performance parameters of Tesla's Optimus Gen3 in July-August
• Final pricing and fundraising规模of IPOs by Unitree, Deep Robotics, Leju Robot
• Progress in scaled deployment of Figure AI with logistics firms like Catalyst Brands
• Quarterly orders and production ramps by core component makers like Hesai, Leader Drive
• Sustained high growth in China's industrial robot output and reducer shipments