Goldman Sachs May Consumer Tracker: Divergent 618 Performance, Strong Beauty, Weak Home Appliances
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Goldman Sachs May Consumer Tracker: Divergent 618 Performance, Strong Beauty, Weak Home Appliances
Overall online consumption was weak in May, but cosmetics GMV led with a 14% YoY increase; domestic and foreign beauty leaders performed excellently, while home appliances and baby products continued to face pressure.
- In combined sales on Tmall/Taobao/JD.com in May, all categories declined YoY except for women's apparel which remained flat
- Including platforms like Douyin, cosmetics GMV grew 14% YoY in May, accelerating from April
- Domestic beauty brands Lin Qingxuan, Proya, and Mao Geping led growth rates, while foreign leaders Estée Lauder and L'Oréal also showed strong performance
- Online sales of infant formula milk powder fell 19% YoY in May, with the decline widening
- White goods online sales dropped 31% YoY in May, indicating significant demand-side pressure
- Sportswear brands showed divergent performance; Adidas, Li-Ning, and Anta improved MoM boosted by 618 promotions
Report interpretation
Overview
This research report is Goldman Sachs' May online sales data tracking report for China's consumer goods industry, focusing on the performance of major categories ahead of the 618 shopping festival. The core conclusion is that the consumer market shows significant structural divergence: although most consumer categories recorded YoY declines on traditional e-commerce platforms (Tmall/Taobao/JD.com), categories such as cosmetics and condiments demonstrated strong growth momentum after incorporating Douyin channels and considering 618 pre-sale factors, while categories like baby products, pet food, and white goods faced considerable downward pressure.
Core views
In terms of category performance, traditional e-commerce channels were generally weak. Combined data from Tmall/Taobao/JD.com for May showed that only women's apparel achieved YoY stability, while sports shoes (-2%), beauty (-4%), health supplements (-6%), dairy products (-9%), sportswear (-11%), small kitchen appliances (-18%), infant formula (-19%), beer (-22%), pet food (-22%), and white goods (-31%) all experienced varying degrees of decline. However, if combining full-channel metrics including Douyin, Tmall, Taobao, and JD.com, the beauty category's GMV grew 14% YoY in May, further accelerating from 11% in April; core brand GMVs for sportswear and condiments grew by 14% and 47% respectively, also showing an acceleration trend. The beauty sector was the biggest highlight of this period's data, presenting a dual-drive pattern of "domestic rebound + foreign leadership." Among domestic brands, Lin Qingxuan (+110%), Betta (+43%), Shanghai Jahwa (+27%), Mao Geping (+22%), and Proya (+8%) led in growth rates; foreign giants Estée Lauder Companies (+36%) and L'Oréal Group (+16%) continued to outperform the broader market thanks to strong performances in their premium lines and skin science divisions. Douyin data for the first phase of 618 (May 15 - June 8) showed that foreign beauty brands maintained high growth above 50%, while domestic brands like Mao Geping (+60%+) and Lin Qingxuan (three-digit growth) also sustained strong momentum. In contrast, durable goods and baby product sectors faced obvious pressure. White goods online sales fell 31% YoY in May, with even leading companies unable to escape, although Roborock had a relatively smaller drop among cleaning appliances. The decline in online sales for infant formula widened from -11% in Q1 to -19% in May, with Feihe (-30%), Yili (-23%), and most foreign brands recording double-digit declines, reflecting the continuing impact of declining birth rates and destocking on the industry. The sportswear sector showed mixed results; mass-market brands like Adidas, Li-Ning, and Anta benefited from 618 promotions with MoM improvements, while premium outdoor brands like Arc'teryx and Descente saw growth slow due to high bases last year.
Analysis framework
The research report employs high-frequency online sales data tracking, capturing SKU-level transaction data from Tmall, Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin platforms via third-party data providers (Moojing/Magic Mirror) to construct monthly brand and category prosperity dashboards. In terms of analytical logic, the institution emphasizes two key dimensions: "multi-channel consolidation" and "promotion rhythm calibration": First, merging interest-based e-commerce (Douyin) with traditional shelf-based e-commerce data to more comprehensively reflect true consumption trends and avoid misjudgments caused by traffic migration between single platforms; Second, regarding major promotion nodes like 618, it is recommended to combine May-June data for evaluation to eliminate single-month data fluctuations caused by the misalignment between pre-sale periods and peak sales periods. Additionally, the report introduces the concept of "benchmark reassessment," noting that some categories (such as beauty) had statistical caliber adjustments or abnormal bases in the same period last year, requiring comprehensive judgment based on quarterly trends.
Methodology notes
Multi-channel GMV Consolidated Tracking
The research report does not rely on data from a single e-commerce platform but aggregates GMV analysis from traditional shelf-based e-commerce like Tmall and JD.com with content-based e-commerce like Douyin. This method can more accurately capture changes in consumer behavior regarding cross-platform price comparison and purchasing, avoiding misjudgments of overall industry prosperity due to traffic shifts between platforms.
Promotion Rhythm Calibration and Base Effect Identification
Regarding e-commerce mega-sales like 618, the report points out that looking at single-month YoY comparisons alone may be distorted because pre-sale start times and peak periods may be misaligned across different years. Therefore, it is recommended to observe combined May and June data and calibrate against special bases from the same period last year (such as differences in Women's Day promotion intensity) to identify true prosperity inflection points rather than calendar effects.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Estée Lauder (EL.US)Beneficiary: Online GMV grew 36% in May, premium beauty line continues to lead during 618
- Strengths
- Strong growth in premium brand portfolio (La Mer/MAC), improving ROI
- Weaknesses
- Mid-tier lines like Clinique remain under pressure, facing competition from domestic brands in the mass market
- Comparison
- Growth rate superior to L'Oréal (+16%), standing out in the premium segment
- Giant Biogene (2367.HK)Beneficiary: Comfy brand grew 22%, growth accelerated to 13% during 618
- Strengths
- Leader in recombinant collagen track, new MA series has large potential upon launch
- Weaknesses
- Main brand growth slower than some competitors, high dependence on single ingredient
- Comparison
- Slower growth than Proya (+8% core brand +15%) and Mao Geping (+22%)
- Proya (603605.SS)Beneficiary: Core brand Proya grew 15% in May, Douyin LFL grew 64% during 618
- Strengths
- Successful hero product strategy, leading omni-channel operational capability, recent acquisition of Bloomage Biotech's small business expands footprint
- Weaknesses
- Color makeup line Caitang (-7%) drags down overall growth
- Comparison
- Strongest comprehensive strength among domestic beauty brands, more stable growth than high-elasticity targets like Lin Qingxuan
- Anta Sports (2020.HK)Neutral to Positive: Anta/FILA/Salomon accelerated MoM in May, but Arc'teryx/Descente slowed down
- Strengths
- Multi-brand matrix covers different price points, 618 promotions effectively boosted mass-market lines
- Weaknesses
- Premium outdoor line faces high-base pressure, switching growth drivers
- Comparison
- Performance better than Nike (-10%), but slightly lower growth compared to Li-Ning (+21%)
Key data
- Beauty Full-Channel GMV Growth Rate+14%YoY growth rate in May, faster than +11% in April, mainly driven by Douyin (+30%)
- Infant Formula Online Sales Growth Rate-19%Combined YoY decline on Tmall/Taobao/JD.com in May, significantly worse than -11% in Q1
- White Goods Online Sales Growth Rate-31%YoY decline in May was the largest among all tracked categories, with demand remaining persistently weak
- Estée Lauder Companies GMV Growth Rate+36%YoY growth rate in May, with subsidiaries Estée Lauder/La Mer/MAC growing 39%/42%/53% respectively
- Lin Qingxuan GMV Growth Rate+110%Highest YoY growth rate among domestic beauty brands in May, partly benefiting from low base effect
Impact & implications
For capital markets, May's data validates the uneven nature of consumer recovery. The strong performance of the beauty sector during 618, coupled with government subsidies expanding to include cosmetics, provides positive signals for Q2 earnings of related listed companies, especially leading domestic and foreign brands with product upgrade capabilities and omni-channel operational advantages. Conversely, the deep adjustment in home appliances and baby products means that valuation repair in these industries still awaits clearer signs of demand stabilization. The report also notes that as brands increasingly focus on emerging channels like Dewu (Poizon) and offline stores for full-domain layout, the representativeness of third-party online data may decrease, and investors should cross-verify with official company disclosures.
Risks
- Different 618 promotion rhythms compared to previous years may distort single-month data, requiring combined May-June assessment
- Brand omni-channel layouts (e.g., Dewu, offline) cause deviations between third-party online data and actual growth
- Some categories (such as beauty, health supplements) had data benchmark resets in the same period last year, so YoY growth rates should be interpreted with caution
What to watch
- Final transaction data and return rates for each category during the full 618 cycle (May 15 - June 18)
- Redemption status of local government beauty coupons and sustainability of pull-through effects on subsequent months' sales
- Implementation effectiveness of home appliance trade-in policies and extent to which export data compensates for domestic demand gaps
- Changes in ROI for beauty brands during 618 and pace of new product launches in H2