April Dining Performance Improved Sequentially; May Day Growth Slowed; Brand Results Differed

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' monthly tracker update on the Chinese dining industry, focusing on the same-store sales growth (SSSG) performance of major brands in April 2026 and during the May Day holiday. The core conclusion is that April performance improved sequentially thanks to an additional spring holiday, with several restaurant companies accelerating from a relatively weak March. However, brands generally saw SSSG decelerate during the May Day holiday, consistent with relatively mild holiday travel/demand. Brand-level performance was notably divergent, with Tai Er and Good Me meeting or exceeding expectations, while Nayuki faced significant pressure.

Core views

Demand Side: April SSSG performance was supported by an additional spring holiday, with several restaurant companies seeing sequential acceleration from a relatively weak March. Yum China noted robust April SSSG improvement over March; Tai Er's SSSG accelerated further to double-digit growth, with both new and existing store formats achieving double-digit growth; Haidilao's table turnover rate also recorded mid-single-digit growth, albeit from a relatively low base. During the May Day holiday, brands generally saw SSSG deceleration, consistent with relatively mild holiday travel/demand, partly attributed to traffic diversion by the April spring holiday. Brand Divergence: Significant divergence emerged at the brand level. Tai Er achieved mid-to-high single-digit SSSG growth in mainland China, supported by new store formats; Good Me's performance aligned with management expectations; while Haidilao's table turnover rate remained roughly flat YoY. Fresh beverage players generally saw negative SSSG during the holiday due to adverse weather and a high base from aggressive delivery subsidies last year, though brand performance varied based on brand momentum and product cycles/expansion opportunities. Good Me met expectations, while Nayuki's May Day SSSG dropped approx. 30%. Competitive Landscape: Delivery subsidies in the fresh beverage sector continue to normalize, with some brands noting a YoY decline in delivery share during May Day compared to the previous year's aggressive subsidies. Brands maintained rational pricing activities; leading restaurant brands showed restraint in pricing, such as KFC starting to charge for extra sauces, while Haidilao kept average check prices stable YoY.

Analysis framework

This report employs a high-frequency data tracking method, monitoring restaurant brand performance in real-time through operational indicators such as same-store sales growth (SSSG), table turnover rates, and per-store sales. The analysis framework includes: 1) Time-series comparison, comparing April data sequentially against March and Q1 to identify acceleration or deceleration trends; 2) Event impact analysis, assessing the short-term pull or diversion effects of spring and May Day holidays; 3) Base effect considerations, noting the impact of last year's data on YoY growth, such as Nayuki's aggressive last-year delivery subsidy creating a high base; 4) Horizontal brand comparison, comparing relative performance across different brands in the same macro environment to identify winners and laggards; 5) Competitive environment monitoring, tracking changes in competition behaviors such as delivery subsidies and pricing strategies.

Methodology notes

• Industry Analysis FrameworkPrice-Volume Decomposition

  Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) Analysis

  SSSG is a core operational metric in the dining industry reflecting the sales growth capability of existing stores, excluding the impact of new store expansion. This report judges brand momentum and operational efficiency by tracking SSSG changes across brands. For example, Tai Er's double-digit SSSG indicates strong same-store growth capability.

• Cycle and Sentiment FrameworkSentiment Tipping Point Analysis

  Base Effect Analysis

  YoY growth rates are significantly influenced by the previous year's base. The report emphasizes the suppressive effect of high bases on SSSG for fresh beverages in Q2-Q3. For instance, Nayuki's aggressive May Day delivery subsidies last year created a high base, putting pressure on this year's YoY growth; this is key to understanding short-term growth volatility.

• Industry Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Holiday Effects and Traffic Diversion

  Festivals provide short-term stimulation to dining demand, but when multiple holidays are close, traffic diversion occurs. The report notes that mild May Day demand was partly attributed to traffic being diverted by the April spring holiday, which is an important perspective for analyzing short-term demand fluctuations.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Brand Momentum and Product Cycles

  Under the same macro environment, divergent brand performance reflects differences in brand momentum and product cycles. For example, Tai Er outperformed the broader market supported by upgraded 'fresh' concepts and diverse menu items, while Nayuki lagged behind other fresh beverage brands.

• Corporate Fundamentals and Financial FrameworkOperating/Financial Leverage Analysis

  Table Turnover Rate and Average Check Analysis

  Restaurant operational efficiency can be decomposed via table turnover rates and average checks. Haidilao's April table turnover rate was 3.5-3.6x, recovering to approx. 80% of 2019 levels, with average checks stable YoY. This helps understand its revenue drivers and profit potential.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Jiumaojiu (9922.HK)

  Beneficiary: Tai Er SSSG continues to improve, accelerating in April with good performance in both new and existing store formats

  Strengths

  Supported by upgraded 'fresh' concepts and diverse menu items; new store formats outperform overall averages

  Weaknesses

  Jiumaojiu and Song branding SSSG trends remain stable but face pressure; new store formats still exploring optimization

  Comparison

  Tai Er SSSG performance outperformed the broader market, outperforming in both April and May Day

  Risks

  South China weather affecting footfall; uncertainty in new store format optimization progress

• Good Me (1364.HK)

  Beneficiary: Performance aligned with management expectations, supported by category expansion and new products

  Strengths

  Management indicated recent SSSG, including May Day performance, met expectations; opportunities for category expansion

  Weaknesses

  Short-term performance may be affected by weather, holidays, etc.; SSSG in Q2-Q3 may see high-single to 10% YoY declines

  Comparison

  Outperformed other fresh beverage brands like Nayuki

  Risks

  Impact of high bases, weather, and holiday volatility

• Haidilao (6862.HK)

  Neutral: April table turnover growth accelerated but from a low base; May Day performance was flat

  Strengths

  April table turnover growth accelerated; May Day table turnover exceeded 5x and remained stable YoY; average check stable

  Weaknesses

  Derived from a low base last year (double-digit decline in April 2025); recovery level approx. 80%, down sequentially vs. Q1

  Comparison

  Table turnover roughly flat YoY, moderate performance

  Risks

  Sustainability of growth after low base effect fades; mild demand

• Nayuki (2150.HK)

  Impacted: SSSG performance weakened sequentially, plummeting during May Day

  Strengths

  -

  Weaknesses

  April per-store sales dropped 11%; May Day SSSG fell approx. 30%, underperforming other fresh beverage brands

  Comparison

  Underperformed other fresh beverage brands like Good Me

  Risks

  Persistent high base pressure; relatively weak brand momentum

• Master Wei (2723.TW)

  Neutral: Mainland China sales declined significantly, but US market tracking remains positive

  Strengths

  USA April per-store sales up 7% vs. Q1; store count reached 91; company-operated stores saw YoY per-store sales increase

  Weaknesses

  Mainland China April sales down 48%; store count down >30% YoY; transitioning to franchise model

  Comparison

  Mainland China performance weaker than Goldman Sachs expectations (40% YoY decline expected)

  Risks

  Continued decline in Mainland China sales; uncertainty in store network optimization progress

Key data

• Haidilao April Table Turnover GrowthMid-single digits %Accelerated from March, similar to Jan-Feb levels, driven by a low base last year
• Haidilao Table Turnover Level3.5x-3.6xSlightly below March, approx. recovering to 80% of 2019 levels
• Haidilao May Day Table Turnover>5xDaily average table turnover, roughly flat YoY
• Tai Er April SSSGDouble-digits %Mainland China; both new and existing store formats achieved double-digit growth
• Tai Er May Day SSSGMid-single digits - High single digits %Mainland China, despite rain affecting footfall in South China
• Nayuki April Per-Store Sales-11%YoY; volume and average check declined 5%/6% respectively
• Nayuki May Day SSSG-30%YoY, due to a high base from aggressive delivery subsidies last year
• Master Wei Mainland China April Sales-48%YoY; store count 290-300, down >30% YoY
• Master Wei USA April Per-Store Sales+7%vs. Q1 levels; store count reached 91
• Starbucks China Q1 2026 Same-Store Sales+0.5%Driven primarily by a 2.1% increase in comparable transactions, with a 1.6% decline in average check

Impact & implications

For the industry, the report suggests Q2-Q3 2026 fresh beverage SSSG may face pressure from high bases, but category expansion and successful new products can provide support. For investors, brand selection is critical as performance diverges significantly under the same macro environment; attention should be paid to targets with strong brand momentum, product innovation, and store format optimization capabilities. Maintaining pricing discipline helps the industry's long-term healthy development and avoids vicious price wars. Store network optimization and franchising transitions (e.g., Master Wei) may offer opportunities for profit improvement.

Risks

• High base effect impacting YoY SSSG performance in Q2-Q3
• Weather factors affecting footfall during holidays
• Normalization of delivery subsidies causing short-term pressure on fresh beverage brands
• Uncertainty in macroeconomics and consumer demand
• Intensified competition may lead to pricing pressure

What to watch

• Subsequent quarterly SSSG trends, especially performance under high bases in Q2-Q3
• Process of normalizing delivery subsidies for fresh beverages and impact on sales structure
• Progress of new store format optimization and expansion pace for each brand
• Sustainability of brand pricing strategies and whether rational pricing will be maintained
• Impact of store network optimization on profit improvement