The Beijing Auto Show shows: competition in China’s large six-seat electric SUV market is heating up sharply, and Chinese OEMs are moving from a domestic battleground to a global launchpad

Overview

This report summarizes Bernstein’s main observations after attending the opening day of the 2026 Beijing Auto Show. It argues that the competitive focus of China’s auto market is rapidly intensifying around large three-row six-seat electric SUVs, with many domestic, joint-venture, and new-energy brands launching or previewing new models in a concentrated way, while features, intelligent driving, chassis technology, powertrain formats, and price bands are all upgrading quickly. At the same time, the strategic narratives of Chinese OEMs and international OEMs are clearly diverging: international automakers continue to defend the China market through deep localization and local partnerships, while Chinese automakers are using domestic scale, cost advantages, and fast innovation cycles as the foundation for global expansion.

Core views

The core views include: first, large six-seat SUVs are shifting from a high-profit subsegment to a highly competitive market, and existing leading models such as the Li Auto L9/L8 and AITO M9/M8 will face more direct competition. Second, supply expansion is occurring against a backdrop of limited incremental demand; the SUV market above RMB 300k has been broadly flat over the past two years, and even under an optimistic scenario, room for upward migration in price bands may be diluted by new entrants. Third, Chinese OEMs are more actively showcasing AI-defined, high-performance, and concept vehicles, while traditional OEMs still rely more on narratives of brand history and heritage, showing a continued gap in product and innovation communication. Fourth, the display of humanoid robots at the auto show suggests that automakers are extending the competitive narrative from vehicles to an embodied-intelligence ecosystem. Fifth, Xiaomi Auto and Lei Jun continue to command very high industry and consumer attention.

Analysis framework

The report uses on-site observations from the auto show, model launch information, price and configuration comparisons, subsegment sales and penetration data, comparisons of OEM strategic messaging, and information such as booth traffic and social media buzz to assess changes in the competitive landscape and strategic direction of China’s auto industry.

Methodology notes

• Industry competition analysisSupply expansion versus demand capacity comparison

  Assess competitive pressure through the number of new models, price bands, powertrain formats, and market size.

  The report compares the new-model pipelines of XPeng, NIO, Zeekr, Volkswagen, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and others against large/full-size SUV sales, the size of the SUV market above RMB 300k, and electrification penetration, to judge whether new supply could compress the profits and share of existing players.

• Product positioning analysisTechnology and feature upgrade comparison

  Compare differentiation in intelligent driving, chassis, chips, powertrain formats, and pricing.

  XPeng GX’s VLA 2.0 intelligent driving, steer-by-wire chassis, and dual BEV/EREV powertrains, together with Leapmotor D19’s lower starting price and the configurations of existing models such as Li Auto and AITO, form the functional-upgrade benchmark for the subsegment.

• Strategic narrative analysisWith China, For China vs In China, For Global

  Compare how international OEMs and Chinese OEMs define the role of the China market differently.

  International OEMs emphasize China localization, local supply chains, and partners; Chinese OEMs treat China’s R&D, scale, and cost advantages as the starting point for serving global markets.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Li Auto L9/L8

  Existing leading models in the large six-seat SUV segment, facing direct competition from new models.

  Strengths

  Have already established a family-SUV positioning and premium user recognition.

  Weaknesses

  Facing pressure from more EREV/BEV choices, intelligence upgrades, and lower pricing.

  Comparison

  Models such as XPeng GX, NIO ES9, Leapmotor D19, and AITO M9/M8 have raised the intensity of configuration and price competition.

  Risks

  Sales share, pricing power, and margins may come under pressure.

• AITO M9/M8

  One of the current strong models in the large premium intelligent SUV segment.

  Strengths

  Huawei’s intelligent driving and cockpit capabilities support product appeal.

  Weaknesses

  The number of competing models at similar and lower price points is increasing.

  Comparison

  Leapmotor D19 creates a value shock with a lower starting price, while XPeng and NIO continue to compete in intelligence and premium branding.

  Risks

  Premium demand may be diverted, and product cycles may shorten.

• XPeng GX / XPEV

  A key new entrant in the large six-seat SUV competition.

  Strengths

  VLA 2.0 intelligent driving, steer-by-wire chassis, dual BEV/EREV powertrains, and relatively clear technological differentiation.

  Weaknesses

  Still needs to prove sales traction and brand carry-through in the high-priced large SUV category.

  Comparison

  Compared with Li Auto and AITO, XPeng places greater emphasis on intelligent driving and technology upgrades.

  Risks

  A crowded subsegment may lead to higher customer-acquisition costs and price competition.

• Leapmotor D19

  A value-oriented competitor entering the large six-seat SUV market with a low starting price.

  Strengths

  Its starting price of RMB 219.8k gives it a “budget flagship” positioning.

  Weaknesses

  Premium brand recognition and luxury experience may be weaker than those of existing premium players.

  Comparison

  Compared with Li Auto, AITO, NIO, and XPeng, D19’s key differentiation lies in price and value proposition.

  Risks

  A low-price strategy may intensify industry-wide pricing pressure while also testing its own profitability.

• BYD, Chery, XPeng and other Chinese OEMs

  Representatives of the “In China, For Global” strategy.

  Strengths

  Domestic scale, cost competitiveness, rapid innovation cycles, and export expansion capability.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas branding, channels, regulation, and localized service still require continued buildout.

  Comparison

  Compared with the China-localization defensive posture of international OEMs such as Toyota and Volkswagen, Chinese OEMs place more emphasis on going global from China.

  Risks

  Overseas trade barriers, geopolitics, and local competition may affect the pace of expansion.

• Toyota, Volkswagen and other international OEMs

  Representatives of the “With China, For China” localization strategy.

  Strengths

  Brand, manufacturing experience, and local partner resources; Volkswagen disclosed about 65% localization of the supply chain for its new models.

  Weaknesses

  There is a gap versus Chinese OEMs in innovation narrative and technology pace.

  Comparison

  Toyota bZ7 uses solutions from Huawei, DriveONE, and Momenta; Volkswagen ID.UNYX and ID.ERA rely on partners such as XPeng, Momenta, and Horizon Robotics.

  Risks

  If localization is insufficient to create differentiation, they may continue to lose China market share.

• Humanoid robots and the embodied-intelligence ecosystem

  A new focus point at the auto show, with automaker narratives extending from vehicles to hardware platforms.

  Strengths

  Displays from XPeng IRON, Chery, Honor, AgiBot, and others enhance a technology-forward image.

  Weaknesses

  The commercialization path and profit model remain unclear.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional auto-show vehicle displays, humanoid robots better reflect the expansion of the AI hardware ecosystem.

  Risks

  There is uncertainty around technological maturity, cost, use cases, and return on capital investment.

Key data

• China new SUV salesabout 11.5 million unitsIn 2024–2025, China’s new SUV sales accounted for about 49% of total auto sales.
• Mid-to-large and large SUV salesabout 1.9 million unitsUp about 27% year over year in 2025, with a 2021–2025 CAGR of about 25%, versus about 5% CAGR for the overall SUV market.
• Electrification penetration of large SUVsBEV about 23%, PHEV/EREV about 55%This shows that electrification in the subsegment is already relatively mature, and incremental room driven solely by powertrain substitution is limited.
• SUV market size above RMB 300kabout 1.9 million–2.0 million unitsThis has been basically flat over the past two years and is the core target price band for most large six-seat models.
• Optimistic market-capacity scenarioabout 2.5 million unitsAssumes about half of buyers in the RMB 250k–300k range trade up, but the report believes that incremental demand may be competed away by more new entrants.
• XPeng GX pre-sale pricestarting from RMB 399.8kHighlights VLA 2.0 intelligent driving, steer-by-wire chassis, and dual BEV/EREV powertrains.
• Leapmotor D19 starting pricestarting from about RMB 219.8kEntering the full-size six-seat SUV market at a lower starting price, which the report views as a disruptive value positioning.
• Xiaomi SU7 deliveries and locked orders26,000 units delivered, 60,000 units lockedLei Jun disclosed Xiaomi EV momentum at the auto show and confirmed that the YU7 GT will be launched in late May.

Impact & implications

For investment and industry judgment, the report conveys a dual implication: on the one hand, crowded supply and upgrades in pricing/configuration in large six-seat electric SUVs may compress the share and profitability of current leading models, raising competitive risk in the industry; on the other hand, the local innovation speed, cost base, and export capabilities of Chinese OEMs are strengthening, meaning the China market is not only a competitive battleground but may also become a launchpad for global vehicle models and technology platforms.

Risks

• Supply in large six-seat SUVs is increasing too quickly, leading to price wars, feature competition, and margin decline.
• Demand for SUVs above RMB 300k has been broadly flat over the past two years; if upward price-band migration falls short of expectations, new models may mainly compete for existing demand.
• Penetration of BEV, PHEV, and EREV is already high, leaving limited incremental room from simple powertrain switching.
• If traditional OEMs rely too heavily on historical brand narratives, they may struggle to match the pace of technology iteration in the China market.
• Chinese OEMs face challenges in overseas expansion from regulation, tariffs, trade friction, channel buildout, and brand trust.
• Humanoid robots and other embodied-intelligence displays are drawing strong attention, but commercialization, cost, and real deployment scenarios still involve substantial uncertainty.

What to watch

• The actual launch prices, orders, and delivery performance of XPeng GX, NIO ES9, Zeekr 9X/8X, Volkswagen ID. Era 9X, Leapmotor D19, and Xiaomi YU9 EREV.
• Changes in sales, pricing, and gross margins for Li Auto L9/L8 and AITO M9/M8 after the concentrated entry of new models.
• Whether the SUV market above RMB 300k can expand from 1.9 million–2.0 million units to a higher level, especially whether users in the RMB 250k–300k range genuinely trade up.
• Changes in the relative share of EREV versus BEV in large family SUVs.
• Market acceptance of localized partnership models from international OEMs such as Volkswagen and Toyota, and whether higher local supply-chain ratios improve competitiveness.
• Feedback, channel buildout, and policy resistance faced by Chinese OEMs such as BYD, Chery, and XPeng in overseas markets including Europe.
• The launch of Xiaomi YU7 GT and the follow-on delivery performance, locked-order conversion, and durability of social buzz for Xiaomi SU7.
• The timeline for automakers’ humanoid robot and embodied-intelligence projects to move from exhibition to mass-production applications.