China telecom industry data was soft in Jan-Feb, with YoY 5G base-station deployment down, while fiber optics and PCB exports still provided support

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' monthly data tracking of China's telecom and 5G industry chain, focusing on Jan-Feb 2026 metrics such as 5G base-station deployment, telecom service revenue, mobile data traffic, 5G users, fiber-optic cable, BTS exports, CCL and PCB exports. Overall, domestic new 5G base stations and telecom service revenue weakened YoY, but the export chain and some electronic-material indicators still posted relatively strong growth.

Core views

The report's key view is that industry data is diverging: on one hand, about 71k new 5G base stations were added in Jan-Feb, down 4% YoY, telecom service revenue fell 1.6% YoY, and fixed broadband user growth also slowed; on the other hand, fiber-optic export volume, fiber-optic export value, BTS export value, CCL export prices and PCB net exports all continued to grow YoY, indicating that overseas demand and the electronics manufacturing export chain still have resilience.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses monthly and quarterly industry data tracking, comparing MIIT, the National Bureau of Statistics, and China Customs data on a YoY, MoM, and historical-trend basis, and combines 5G base-station deployment, user penetration, output, import/export volume and price, and service revenue to assess the health of the telecom industry chain.

Methodology notes

• Industry data trackingMonthly YoY and MoM comparison

  Assess industry conditions through YoY and MoM changes

  The report compares YoY and MoM changes in indicators such as 5G base-station deployment, fiber-optic output, export volume, export value, telecom revenue, mobile data traffic, and user counts to identify short-term demand changes and trend strength.

• Data sourcesOfficial statistics and customs data

  Cross-check MIIT, NBS, and China Customs data

  The report states that unless otherwise noted, production data come from the National Bureau of Statistics, trade data from China Customs, and 5G user and base-station-related indicators mainly from MIIT.

• Research frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and integrated percentile comparisons

  The disclosure notes that Goldman Sachs uses Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated attributes to compare stocks with the market and peers, but the body of this report does not provide factor percentile results for any specific company.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China telecom service operators

  Objects tracked for revenue and user growth

  Strengths

  The total number of 5G users continues to grow, and mobile data traffic still records double-digit YoY growth.

  Weaknesses

  Total telecom service revenue declined YoY in Jan-Feb, and growth in mobile users and fixed broadband users slowed.

  Comparison

  Net additions of 5G users in Jan-Feb were 31mn, below 37mn in the same period of 2025.

  Risks

  Persistent pressure on service revenue, slower user growth, price competition, or changes in package structures.

• 5G base-station equipment chain

  Directly tied to base-station deployment and BTS exports

  Strengths

  In February, BTS export value rose 81% YoY and the export ASP increased significantly MoM.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic new 5G base stations fell 4% YoY in Jan-Feb, and the 2026E and 2027E macro base-station forecasts continue to decline.

  Comparison

  The 2026E 5G macro base-station forecast is 540,000 units, below 588,000 units in 2025.

  Risks

  Slower domestic deployment pace, statistical-caliber changes, and overseas order volatility.

• Fiber-optic cable industry chain

  Objects tracked for production and export demand

  Strengths

  In February, fiber-optic export volume rose 64% YoY and export value rose 133% YoY, indicating improving overseas demand.

  Weaknesses

  Fiber-optic output grew 3% YoY in Jan-Feb, below the 6% growth rate in Dec 2025.

  Comparison

  February export volume was 3,780 tons, above January's 3,574 tons.

  Risks

  Sustainability of overseas demand, price fluctuations, and raw-material cost changes.

• CCL and PCB industry chain

  Electronic-material and manufacturing export indicators

  Strengths

  In February, CCL export prices rose 23% YoY, PCB export value rose 20% YoY, and PCB net export value rose 37% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  The YoY growth rate in PCB net export value was below January's 44%.

  Comparison

  The report believes China's PCB net export volume is likely to rise as domestic PCB capacity increases.

  Risks

  End-demand volatility in electronics, changes in the trade environment, and price pressure from capacity expansion.

Key data

• Jan-Feb 2026 new 5G base stations71k unitsThe report says this was down 4% YoY and rebounded from 8k units in Dec 2025.
• Jan-Feb 2026 telecom service revenueRmb 290.4bnThe table shows a 1.6% YoY decline.
• Jan-Feb 2026 5G users1.235bnNet additions in Jan-Feb were 31mn, below 37mn in the same period of 2025.
• Feb 2026 fiber-optic export volume+64% YoYExport value in U.S. dollars rose 133% YoY.
• Feb 2026 fiber preform import volume31 tonsUp 81% YoY and 90% MoM; average selling price fell 6% MoM.
• Feb 2026 BTS export volume+19% YoYExport value rose 81% YoY; export volume fell 17% MoM, export value rose 26% MoM, and ASP rose 52% MoM.
• Feb 2026 CCL export price+23% YoYUp 11% MoM.
• Feb 2026 PCB export value+20% YoYPCB net export value rose 37% YoY, below January's 44% but still growing.
• China Mobile / China Unicom 5G user penetration64% / 69%As of the end of 4Q25, China Mobile had 642mn 5G users and China Unicom 302mn.
• 2026E 5G macro base station forecast540,000 unitsThe table shows 588,000 in 2025, a YoY decline of about 8% in 2026E, and 500,000 in 2027E.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, short-term pressure on domestic operators' capex and service revenue may limit sentiment recovery for 5G base stations and the domestic telecom equipment chain; however, improving fiber, BTS, CCL, and PCB export data suggest that overseas demand and the electronics manufacturing chain can still support related upstream materials, equipment, and component companies. Overall, this is better interpreted from the perspective of structural opportunities and data tracking rather than a simple judgment that the industry is broadly recovering.

Risks

• Since March 2023, MIIT has changed the statistical method for indoor 5G base stations from counting BBU to counting RRU, so historical YoY comparisons may be affected by the methodological change.
• The YoY decline in telecom service revenue may reflect slower industry growth or pricing pressure.
• New 5G base stations and annual macro base-station forecasts continue to decline, which may weigh on domestic equipment-chain demand.
• Export data are highly volatile in the short term due to holidays, single-month high-value orders, regional customer mix, and exchange rates.
• The report's body mainly provides data tracking and disclosure information, and does not offer a complete company earnings forecast or valuation model.

What to watch

• Whether new 5G base stations resume growth in subsequent months, especially whether full-year 2026 can approach the 540,000 units forecast.
• Whether telecom service revenue growth turns positive from the negative growth seen in Jan-Feb.
• Whether net additions and penetration of 5G users continue to rise, especially changes in the user mix of China Mobile and China Unicom.
• Whether the volume and price trends of fiber-optic, BTS, CCL, and PCB exports can maintain high growth for several consecutive months.
• Whether high-value BTS orders from overseas trading partners such as South America are sustainable.
• Whether growth in PCB net exports can continue to expand as domestic capacity increases.