Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Anta Sports Products, target price HK$108

Overview

This is a data update report from Goldman Sachs on Anta Sports Products (2020.HK). The key change is to incorporate Amer's strong 1Q26 revenue growth, broad-based upside surprise, and higher FY26 guidance into Anta's earnings model, thereby slightly raising Anta Group's 2026E-2028E net profit forecasts. The report maintains its Buy rating and 12-month target price of HK$108.

Core views

Goldman Sachs remains positive on Anta's long-term growth, citing strong multi-brand platform execution, effective cost management in a volatile operating environment, and the likelihood that discounting trends will remain stable. The report also acknowledges that slower growth in April and weak mass sportswear consumption during the Labor Day holiday have dampened market sentiment in the near term. On valuation, Goldman Sachs believes 13x 2026E P/E is attractive.

Analysis framework

The report combines a modest earnings forecast adjustment with relative valuation: first, it revises Anta's recognizable associate income based on Amer's 1Q26 revenue growth of 32.1% YoY, which exceeded the GS/FactSet consensus of 24.7%, as well as the higher FY26 guidance; then, it keeps the target price framework unchanged and derives the 12-month target price by discounting 20x 2027E P/E back to mid-2026.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E-based target price

  P/E-based target price method

  Goldman Sachs uses a 12-month P/E target price for Anta. The HK$108 target is based on 20x 2027E P/E, discounted back to mid-2026 using an 11% cost of equity.

• earnings_forecastAssociate income revision

  associate company income revision

  The report reflects Amer's better-than-expected performance and guidance upgrade in Anta's associate income forecast, and expects 2026E associate income from Amer of RMB1.762 billion.

• factor_analysisGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  This framework compares a stock's relative characteristics versus the market and sector peers across four dimensions: growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports Products (2020.HK)

  core coverage name

  Strengths

  Solid multi-brand execution, strong cost management, attractive valuation, and benefit from the upward revision to Amer associate income.

  Weaknesses

  Recent growth since April in Q2-to-date has slowed, Labor Day consumption trends have been weak, and market sentiment has been pressured.

  Comparison

  The report places Anta within Goldman Sachs' consumer and sportswear coverage universe and views 13x 2026E P/E as attractive relative to its long-term growth outlook.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected growth in the Anta brand or Fila, rising discount pressure, and weaker expense control.

• Amer

  associate income contributor

  Strengths

  1Q26 revenue grew 32.1% YoY, broadly above consensus, and FY26 guidance was raised.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide detailed long-term risk disclosures for Amer by segment.

  Comparison

  Amer's 1Q26 revenue growth exceeded the GS/FactSet consensus of 24.7%, driven mainly by strong Outdoor Performance.

  Risks

  If Amer's subsequent growth or guidance delivery falls short of expectations, the upside to Anta's associate income revision may be limited.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-22The report header shows Equity Research 22 May 2026.
• RatingBuyThe report explicitly states that the Buy rating is maintained.
• 12-month target priceHK$108The target price and valuation methodology are unchanged.
• Disclosed priceHK$76.00Anta Sports Products (HK$76.00) is shown in the company-specific disclosure.
• Implied upsideapproximately 42.1%Calculated from the HK$108 target price relative to HK$76.00.
• 2026E-2028E net profit adjustment+0.2%-0.6%The increase mainly reflects higher expected Amer associate income.
• Amer 1Q26 revenue growth+32.1% yoyHigher than the GS/FactSet consensus of 24.7%.
• 2026E Amer associate incomeRMB1.762 billionThe prior forecast was RMB1.684 billion, accounting for about 12% of Anta Group's net profit.
• Valuation multiple13x 2026E P/EGoldman Sachs believes this valuation level is attractive.

Impact & implications

The investment implication of the report is that Amer's strong performance provides a positive read-through to Anta's earnings and enhances the profitability flexibility of the Group's multi-brand platform. Although near-term consumption and slower growth in mass sportswear have weighed on sentiment, Goldman Sachs believes stable discounting, market share gains, and cost management capabilities still support a medium- to long-term Buy view.

Risks

• Weaker-than-expected growth in the Anta brand or Fila.
• A renewed increase in discount pressure.
• Weaker operating expense control.
• Weak near-term consumption trends in mass sportswear may continue to weigh on market sentiment.

What to watch

• FY26 guidance delivery at Amer and its contribution to Anta's associate income.
• Sales growth trends for the Anta brand and Fila in Q2 and beyond.
• Whether discount rates remain stable.
• Recovery in mass sportswear consumption after Labor Day.
• Whether the multi-brand platform continues to gain market share.