Pioneer Intelligent Q1 Loss but Orders Up 60%, Maintain Buy Target Price 73 CNY

Overview

This report is an Earnings Review by Nomura Securities on Wuxi Pioneer Intelligent (300450.SZ) Q1 2026 results. Core view believes that although company Q1 book net profit was under pressure due to one-off exchange rate loss, operational business fundamentals remain strong with new orders growing YoY over 60%. With revenue recognition cycle progress, revenue acceleration is expected from Q2, and gross margin gradually repair. Additionally, equipment orders in emerging battery technology fields (such as all-solid-state battery, sodium-ion battery) are expected to become new growth engines. Based on this, Nomura maintains "Buy" rating, target price 73 CNY.

Core views

In terms of financial performance, 2026 Q1 Pioneer Intelligent realized operating revenue of 3.691 billion CNY, YoY +19%; attributable net profit was 405 million CNY, YoY +11%. Although net profit data appears stable, management pointed out the quarter was dragged by one-off foreign exchange loss. In terms of operational indicators, adjusted operating profit was 459 million CNY, YoY +20%, showing core profitability maintained growth trend. Regarding gross margin, Q1 comprehensive gross margin was 33.6%, down 1.3 percentage points QoQ, but slightly down 0.9 percentage points YoY, remaining in a relatively stable range. Regarding orders and outlook, management revealed Q1 new order amount was approx. 9.6 billion RMB, YoY growth over 60%, and additionally obtained over 4 billion RMB in preliminary contract intent. Given previous full-year guidance was new order YoY growth 30%, current strong momentum indicates possibility to revise up full-year order growth guidance. Considering equipment revenue typically has 4-6 quarters recognition cycle, management expects revenue growth acceleration from 2026 Q2, and margin profile will gradually recover. In new technology layout, company progress in all-solid-state battery (ASSB) and sodium-ion battery equipment fields is smooth. ASSB equipment demand in FY26 estimated to reach approx. 2 billion CNY, YoY approx. double, this growth higher than industry average 70-80%. Sodium-ion battery equipment has entered pre-commercial stage, expected to start supplying major clients from H2 2026. Additionally, company obtained new order from a South Korea battery manufacturer in Q1. In industry logic, Nomura believes 2026-2027 will be strong battery capex cycle. This judgment based on domestic leading battery enterprises (such as CATL, EVE Energy) active expansion plans and energy storage battery high capacity utilization. As leading equipment supplier, Pioneer Intelligent will directly benefit from this capex upward cycle and battery technology diversification development.

Analysis framework

Nomura Securities analysis logic follows "Short-term financial disturbance isolation + Mid-long term order verification + New technology incremental calculation" framework. First, by unpacking financial report, identify non-recurring gains/losses in Q1 net profit (exchange loss), thereby restoring adjusted operating profit speed reflecting true operating situation. Second, utilize management disclosed new order data (9.6 billion, +60%), combined with equipment industry 4-6 month revenue recognition lag, derive future quarter revenue acceleration expectation. Finally, expand perspective to industry technology iteration, by quantifying specific amount forecast for all-solid-state battery equipment (2 billion), verify second growth curve beyond traditional lithium battery equipment base, thereby supporting its maintain high valuation multiple rationality.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Upstream Capex drives downstream equipment demand

  Research report analyzes upstream battery manufacturers (such as CATL) expansion willingness and capacity utilization, deriving midstream equipment manufacturer future orders and revenue prospects. This is typical Top-down industry analysis logic, i.e., upstream capital expenditure (Capex) is forward-looking indicator for downstream equipment vendor performance.

• Event Gaming and Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap/Expectation Management

  Use actual data to correct market expectations for future growth

  Research report points out management Q1 order growth (+60%) far exceeds previous guidance full-year expectation (+30%). Analyst infers company may revise up full-year guidance, such "actual data better than market expectation" or "management releases positive signal" behavior constitutes stock price rise expectation gap drive.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  P/E relative to earnings growth ratio or historical valuation percentile

  Research report adopts 45x 2026 expected EPS for valuation, and clearly points out this equals company historical forward P/E 0.3 standard deviation above. This indicates institution using relative valuation method, not only look at absolute PE multiple, also combine stock's historical valuation fluctuation interval to judge if current price is reasonable.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Wuxi Pioneer Intelligent (300450.SZ)

  Benefit Logic: As global leading lithium battery equipment leader, directly benefits from domestic large battery factory expansion and new technology (solid/sodium-ion) equipment order explosion.

  Strengths

  New orders strong (+60% y-y); New technology layout leading (ASSB equipment demand double); Cash flow and operating profit maintain growth.

  Weaknesses

  Q1 dragged by one-off exchange loss, book net profit performance below operating substance; Gross margin still volatile short term.

  Comparison

  Compared to other equipment vendors in industry, Pioneer more advantageous in whole-line delivery capability and new technology R&D, and directly bound to CATL etc. top clients.

  Risks

  Battery factory expansion schedule below expectation; New technology commercialization process slow down; Raw material cost rise squeezes gross margin.

• CATL (300750.CH)

  Related Target: One of Pioneer Intelligent main customers, its expansion plan directly drives Pioneer's equipment orders.

  Strengths

  Industry position stable, capacity utilization high, capex willingness strong.

• EVE Energy (300014.CH)

  Related Target: Another important customer of Pioneer Intelligent, also in active expansion phase.

Key data

• 2026 Q1 New Orders~9.6 billion CNYYoY growth >60%
• 2026 Q1 Preliminary Contract Intent>4 billion CNYAdditional potential orders obtained
• 2026 FY ASSB Equipment Demand~2 billion CNYYoY growth approx. double, higher than industry average growth
• 2026 Q1 Adjusted Operating Profit459 million CNYYoY growth 20%
• 2026 Q1 Attributable Net Profit405 million CNYYoY growth 11%, dragged by exchange loss
• Target Price73.00 CNYBased on 45x 2026F EPS

Impact & implications

For Pioneer Intelligent, strong Q1 orders mean 2026 full-year performance certainty relatively high, and with delivery of high gross margin products and new business volume release, profit margin expected to improve. For entire lithium battery equipment industry, continuous expansion by leading battery factories indicates industry did not fall into pessimistic expectation of excessive oversupply, but entered new capex cycle centered on technology upgrade (such as solid-state battery) and efficiency improvement. For investors, current stock price (55.36 CNY) relative to target price (73 CNY) still has approx. 32% upside space, and valuation (34x FY26 P/E) lower than its historical average level, possess allocation value.

Risks

• Battery manufacturer capex plan substantially reduce due to weak market demand
• All-solid-state battery and sodium-ion battery commercialization process below expectation
• Exchange rate fluctuation cause further negative impact on company finance
• Industry competition intensify lead to equipment price war, compress gross margin

What to watch

• Whether 2026 full-year new order growth revised up to above 30%
• Second quarter and下半年 revenue recognition speed and gross margin repair situation
• Sodium-ion battery equipment shipment progress to major clients such as South Korea
• All-solid-state battery (ASSB) equipment order landed amount and client feedback