China Shock 2.0: Export Share May Continue to Rise, Putting Pressure on Some Southeast Asian Economies

Overview

This analyst brief published by Nomura Global Markets Research on June 19, 2026 focuses on "China shock 2.0." The report's core judgment is that China still has room to further increase its share of global exports, led by five sectors; these sectors are also viewed as potential winners in the equity market. By contrast, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines face greater vulnerability.

Core views

The core views include: first, China's export competitiveness and global share may continue to strengthen; second, the rise in export share is not evenly spread, but concentrated in five sectors; third, the relevant sectors may gain a relative advantage in the stock market; fourth, some Asian economies, especially Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, may come under pressure due to industrial competition, export substitution, or shifts in external demand share.

Analysis framework

The report connects changes in China's export share, the exposure of Asian economies, and equity market performance from a macro and cross-market perspective. Because the input text mainly preserves the brief summary and disclaimers and does not provide the full model, sector list, or calculation details, the analysis can only be summarized based on the summary sentences and metadata.

Methodology notes

• Macro and cross-asset analysisExport share and regional vulnerability framework

  It links the rise in China's global export share with competitive pressure on Asian economies and equity market sector winners.

  The excerpt does not disclose the full quantitative methodology; what can be confirmed is that the report organizes its views around three dimensions: export share, sector beneficiaries, and country vulnerability.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China export-related equity assets

  Potential beneficiary

  Strengths

  Global export share is expected to continue rising, and some sectors may become equity market winners.

  Weaknesses

  The excerpt does not disclose the five specific sectors, nor does it provide earnings sensitivity or valuation analysis.

  Comparison

  Compared with the named vulnerable Southeast Asian economies, China's export-related sectors have a stronger competitive position.

  Risks

  Trade policy, weaker external demand, exchange-rate volatility, and global supply chain reconfiguration may weaken the investment thesis.

• Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines macro and equity markets

  Potentially pressured side

  Strengths

  They may still benefit from regional supply chains and resilient domestic demand, but the excerpt does not elaborate.

  Weaknesses

  They are identified by the report as relatively vulnerable under China shock 2.0.

  Comparison

  Compared with the beneficiary sectors from China's rising export share, these economies may face more direct competitive or share pressure.

  Risks

  Intensifying export competition, loss of manufacturing orders, weak external demand, and declining risk appetite in capital markets.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-19From the date on the Global Markets Research cover.
• Research institutionNomuraThe report was produced by Nomura Singapore Ltd.
• AnalystsEuben Paracuelles; Hannah LiuThe cover lists Asia Economics analysts.
• Core judgmentChina’s global export shares are set to rise furtherThe original text explicitly states that China's global export share will rise further.
• Vulnerable countriesIndonesia; Thailand; PhilippinesThe original text names these countries as appearing vulnerable.
• Potential winnersfive sectorsThe original text says the shift will be led by five sectors that may become equity market winners, but the specific sectors are not listed in the excerpt.

Impact & implications

If the report's judgment proves correct, China's export-related sectors may continue to gain support from rising global share and market expectations; at the same time, Asian economies that compete more directly with China's export structure or face greater substitution risk may experience pressure on growth, corporate earnings, and market valuations. For investors, the key is not a generalized bullish or bearish view on Asia, but identifying the benefiting Chinese export sectors and the countries and sector exposures under pressure.

Risks

• The report excerpt contains limited information and does not disclose the specific names, weights, or calculation process of the five sectors.
• A continued rise in China's export share may be affected by trade barriers, tariffs, geopolitics, and supply chain de-risking.
• The actual vulnerability of Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines depends on industrial structure, policy response, and the external demand cycle.
• The judgment on equity market winners may be affected by valuation, earnings delivery, and changes in global risk appetite.

What to watch

• Whether China's global export share continues to rise.
• The specific composition, earnings performance, and relative stock returns of the five leading sectors mentioned in the report.
• Changes in export orders, manufacturing investment, and current accounts in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines.
• The interest-rate environment in major developed markets and the degree of pressure on Asia ex-Japan assets.
• Whether subsequent related Nomura Asia rewired briefings disclose more complete sector and country analysis.