China's industrial technology is entering a 'Going Global 3.0' phase driven by AI, product capabilities and technology iteration
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China's industrial technology is entering a 'Going Global 3.0' phase driven by AI, product capabilities and technology iteration
Goldman Sachs believes supply-demand gap solvers and technology upgraders are likely to gain the greatest overseas share and margin improvement from 2026 to 2030, but regulation, certification and local service capabilities will determine long-term winners.
- The report analyzes opportunities across 11 product categories from the bottom up, estimating that their 2030 global total addressable markets will range from USD 12 billion to USD 212 billion.
- Supply-demand gap solvers are driven by capacity shortages in global non-China markets, with the most significant medium-term overseas share and margin improvement.
- Technology upgraders leverage rapid R&D and product iteration to capture upgrades in 800VDC, AI data center cooling and power architecture.
- Although energy storage and humanoid robots have long-term potential, they face stronger medium-term pressure from regulation, safety, environmental protection and trade access.
- The average overseas revenue contribution of 11 representative Chinese companies is expected to rise from 35% in 2026 to 40% in 2030.
Report interpretation
Overview
The report divides the evolution of Chinese exports into 'Going Global 3.0': compared with the first phase driven by low-cost manufactured goods and the second phase driven by electric vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaics, the new phase mainly exports AI-enabled, technology-led industrial capabilities, covering AI data center power infrastructure, energy storage, robotics and industrial automation. The report focuses on 11 product tracks, compares Chinese leaders with global peers at the product and regional levels, and assesses changes in overseas share, revenue and margins from 2026 to 2030 as well as sustainability after 2030.
Core views
The most attractive medium-term opportunities are supply-demand gap solvers, including transformers, switchgear, uninterruptible power supplies and gas turbines, whose overseas expansion is directly supported by global capacity shortages and AI data center construction. Technology upgraders rely on faster R&D and production iteration to gain structural opportunities in power supply units, server cooling and relays. Energy storage and humanoid robots have already established or are striving for global leadership, but market access pressure is relatively high. Industrial automation and industrial robots lack clear industry demand tailwinds, and their overseas performance depends more on companies' own product capabilities, localization, channel development and customer expansion. Short-term share gains do not necessarily translate into long-term leadership; certification, quality, ecosystem acceptance, global service and compliance capabilities will become increasingly important.
Analysis framework
The report uses a bottom-up product-level analysis, breaking the non-homogeneous industrial technology sector into 11 competitive battlefields and pairing Chinese leaders with global leaders one by one in the most relevant overseas markets. The analysis first identifies sources of overseas demand, then distinguishes medium-term execution advantages from long-term competitive moats, and finally classifies Chinese companies based on their market positions among the global top five participants, while assessing revenue, market share, pricing and gross margin drivers.
Methodology notes
Export opportunities are divided into supply-demand gap solvers, technology upgraders, existing global players and company-specific opportunities.
The classification is used to distinguish demand tailwinds, paths to share gains, margin potential and long-term sustainability across different products.
Sequentially examines sources of overseas demand, the durability of share growth and Chinese companies' current global competitive positions.
Demand sources include supply shortages in global non-China markets and new technology adoption cycles; durability assessment distinguishes medium-term advantages such as pricing, speed to market and R&D iteration from long-term capabilities such as quality, certification, service and regulatory adaptation.
Compares Chinese leaders with the most relevant global peers in core overseas markets.
This method is used to isolate revenue, margin and competitive factors for specific products, avoiding reliance solely on company-level consolidated financial disclosures.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Sieyuan Electric（002028.SZ）Supply-demand gap solver, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- Benefits from transformer and switchgear shortages in the United States and Latin America; delivery speed and execution capabilities help increase share and margins.
- Weaknesses
- Overseas service networks, long-term operating standards and ecosystem recognition still need continued development.
- Comparison
- Mainly compared with global power equipment leaders such as Siemens Energy.
- Risks
- Narrowing supply-demand gaps, trade barriers, certification delays and rising overseas costs.
- Kstar（002518.SZ）Supply-demand gap solver, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- Benefits from US AI data center construction and demand for uninterruptible power supplies; the valuation table shows high target price upside.
- Weaknesses
- Compared with global leaders, its local channels, service and brand foundation remain weaker.
- Comparison
- Compared with Schneider Electric in the US uninterruptible power supply market.
- Risks
- US market access, trade restrictions, intensifying competition and overseas manufacturing costs.
- Yingliu（603308.SS）Supply-demand gap solver, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- Expected to benefit from tight supply chains related to gas turbines in North America and growth in demand for key components.
- Weaknesses
- Business opportunities are sensitive to specific customers, product certification and the duration of supply shortages.
- Comparison
- The report references North American peers such as GE Vernova and Howmet.
- Risks
- Capacity expansion falling short of expectations, extended customer certification cycles and normalization of industry supply and demand.
- Envicool（002837.SZ）Technology upgrader, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- Rapid R&D and engineering iteration help capture demand for AI server liquid cooling and high-power-density cooling.
- Weaknesses
- Global service capabilities and long-term operating validation with high-end customers still lag mature international companies.
- Comparison
- Compared with Vertiv in the US server cooling market.
- Risks
- Changes in technology routes, failure to pass customer certification, price competition and insufficient overseas service.
- Hongfa（600885.SS）Technology upgrader, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- Has relatively mature globalization experience in relays and benefits from architecture upgrades such as 800VDC.
- Weaknesses
- Still needs to address international peers' advantages in channels, brands and customer relationships.
- Comparison
- Compared with Panasonic in the European market.
- Risks
- Slower pace of technology upgrades, end demand falling short of expectations and intensifying competition.
- Megmeet（002851.SZ）Technology upgrader, focused on export opportunities for power supply units.
- Strengths
- R&D iteration speed and cost competitiveness help it enter the high-end US market and expand ecosystem access.
- Weaknesses
- Existing international manufacturers still dominate, and ecosystem and customer certification barriers are high.
- Comparison
- Compared with Delta Electronics in the US power supply unit market.
- Risks
- High-end market introduction falling short of expectations, certification delays, trade restrictions and pricing pressure.
- Sungrow（300274.SZ）Existing global player, rated Neutral.
- Strengths
- Chinese energy storage companies already have relatively strong global market positions and benefit from renewable energy grid-connection demand.
- Weaknesses
- Medium-term overseas expansion is constrained by regulatory, safety, environmental and market access requirements.
- Comparison
- Compared with Tesla in the US energy storage market.
- Risks
- Policy restrictions, tariffs and trade barriers, overseas price competition and margin pressure.
- Inovance（300124.SZ）and Estun（002747.SZ／2715.HK）Company-specific opportunities, with slower medium-term ramp-up but remaining long-term potential.
- Strengths
- Possess product technology, R&D iteration and cost competitiveness, and can expand overseas share through localization, channel expansion and customer penetration.
- Weaknesses
- Lack clear industry demand tailwinds; overseas share growth depends more on companies' own execution.
- Comparison
- Inovance is compared with Siemens in Europe, and Estun is compared with Fanuc in Southeast Asia.
- Risks
- Slow localization progress, insufficient channel development, customer base overly dependent on Chinese companies and insufficient global service capabilities.
- Unitree RoboticsA born-global representative humanoid robot company, currently unlisted.
- Strengths
- Targets the global market from the early stage of market formation, with rapid product iteration and cost advantages.
- Weaknesses
- Commercialization and overseas revenue ramp-up are still in early stages, and long-term reliability and service systems remain to be validated.
- Comparison
- Compared with Boston Dynamics.
- Risks
- US regulatory restrictions, security reviews, product liability, market access and demand realization falling short of expectations.
Key data
- Number of products analyzed11 categoriesCovers power infrastructure, data center equipment, energy storage, robotics and industrial automation.
- 2030 global total addressable market rangeUSD 12 billion to USD 212 billionMarket size estimates for different products are based on company materials, Goldman Sachs estimates and third-party data.
- Supply-demand gap in global non-China marketsApproximately 8% to 34%This is the range of supply gaps for related products from 2026 to 2030, and is an important driver for supply-demand gap solvers to win orders.
- Incremental market space for new productsBy 2030, up to more than 350% of the original 2026 sub-segment marketAI, electrification and automation upgrades may create new demand pools.
- Average overseas revenue contribution of representative companies35% in 2026, 40% in 2030Significantly higher than the overall level of about 16% for Chinese listed companies.
- Average share of regional overseas revenue in total revenueNorth America 19%, Europe 11%, Southeast Asia 11%, Latin America 5%, Middle East 3%North America mainly refers to the United States; regional concentration and operating models vary significantly across companies.
- Potential upside shown in Kstar valuation table101%The latest closing price is CNY 33.39, the 12-month target price is CNY 67.00, and the rating is Buy.
- Potential upside shown in Yingliu valuation table70%The latest closing price is CNY 48.38, the 12-month target price is CNY 82.40, and the rating is Buy.
Impact & implications
Investors should not view the overseas growth of Chinese industrial technology companies as a single theme. Medium-term allocation can prioritize companies driven by real capacity gaps or technology architecture upgrades and that also have pricing and delivery advantages; over the long term, overseas certification, local after-sales service, lifecycle services, product reliability and compliance capabilities need to be verified. Market access may constrain the pace of monetization in competitive tracks such as energy storage and robotics, while automation companies lacking clear demand tailwinds need to rely on their own execution to gradually break beyond their original Chinese customer circles.
Risks
- The United States and other markets expand regulatory restrictions on Chinese robots, connected power equipment and AI infrastructure.
- Tariffs, trade barriers, localization production requirements and export controls increase overseas operating costs.
- Global supply-demand gaps narrow earlier than expected, making the share and pricing advantages of supply-demand gap solvers difficult to sustain.
- Product quality, long-term reliability, certification and ecosystem acceptance fail to meet the requirements of global utility and industrial customers.
- Local after-sales service, spare parts, lifecycle services and channel network development lag behind.
- International leaders counterattack through price cuts, product upgrades or strengthened customer lock-in.
- Rising raw material, overseas factory and labor costs erode margins.
- Demand growth for AI data centers, energy storage or robotics is lower than expected.
What to watch
- Changes in supply-demand gaps for power equipment in global non-China markets from 2026 to 2030.
- Chinese companies' certification, regulatory approval and customer onboarding progress in the United States and Europe.
- Whether the overseas revenue contribution can rise from 35% in 2026 to 40% in 2030 as scheduled.
- Realization of overseas market share and gross margins for transformers, switchgear and uninterruptible power supplies.
- Adoption speed of technology upgrades such as 800VDC, power supply units and server liquid cooling.
- Progress in building overseas after-sales service, spare parts systems, local factories and channel networks.
- The subsequent scope of US restrictions on Chinese humanoid robots, quadruped robots and connected power equipment.
- Whether industrial automation and industrial robot companies can break through Chinese customer groups and win local customers.