High-base effect weighs on Pop Mart and Miniso growth, while Bloks accelerates new product cadence
AI summary card
High-base effect weighs on Pop Mart and Miniso growth, while Bloks accelerates new product cadence
Goldman Sachs tracking shows that in June, China's IP retail and toy segment diverged on a high base: Pop Mart and Miniso saw slower online and overseas sales growth, while Bloks improved monthly sales momentum by leaning on new IP and product launches.
- Pop Mart's Tmall + Douyin flagship store sales on a year-over-year basis in June were down 21%, and 2Q26 year-over-year growth was 16%, sharply slower than 1Q26's 115%.
- Miniso's June combined sales across Tmall, JD, and Douyin were down 15% year-over-year, while 2Q26 year-over-year growth was 3%, down from 43% in 1Q26.
- In 2Q26, Bloks increased the year-over-year and month-over-month number of new series and SKUs, and June Tmall + JD + Douyin sales growth accelerated sharply versus May.
- U.S. consumer sentiment remains weak; Pop Mart's U.S. credit-card sales in June saw year-over-year declines widen to around 57%, while Miniso's U.S. credit-card sales deceleration was from about 32% in May to about 15% in June.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Goldman Sachs’ June tracking update on China IP retailers and toy companies, covering Pop Mart, Miniso, and Bloks, with a focus on new product/IP launches, online sales momentum, secondary-market pricing, search trends, and overseas market changes. The overall conclusion is that Pop Mart and Miniso are seeing growth slow on a high base versus last year, while overseas markets also show signs of demand cooling; Bloks has become more active in product launches, improving near-term sales rhythm, but full-year online growth in the first half is still slower than in the second half of 2025.
Core views
The key points are threefold: first, Pop Mart's domestic online sales were pressured in June, mainly because strong supply expansion of the Labubu Big Into Energy series in June 2025 created a high base, and the rapid fade in resale premium for the new series also indicates weaker momentum than before. Second, Miniso remains active in new product launches, with positive feedback to Yoyo x Toy Story 5, but both overall online sales and U.S. credit-card sales growth decelerated compared with 1Q26 on a sequential basis. Third, Bloks accelerated 2Q26 launches of new IP and major established IP, with several adult-line IPs seeing improved month-over-month sales in June, lifting monthly sales momentum.
Analysis framework
The report mainly uses a high-frequency tracking framework: it uses third-party e-commerce data from Tmall, JD, and Douyin to monitor China online sales; U.S. credit-card sales data to gauge overseas retail momentum; Google Trends, WeChat Index, and secondary-market resale prices to track IP heat; and combines new product release schedules, box office, consumer sentiment, and peer valuation comparisons to assess sector trends.
Methodology notes
Uses changes in sales of flagship stores on Tmall, JD, and Douyin to track brand-level online momentum.
This method can quickly capture the effects of new launches, high-base effects, and promotion cycles on sales, but it is not equivalent to company-wide total-channel revenue.
Uses credit-card sales and search indices to measure overseas consumption and IP heat.
The report points out that Pop Mart's U.S. credit-card sales declines widened, while Miniso's U.S. sales growth slowed, and Labubu did not show a clear inflection in U.S. and global Google Trends.
Sets 12-month target prices based on forward-year P/E multiples.
Miniso's target is based on 15x 2026E P/E; Pop Mart's target is based on 15x 2027E P/E discounted to 2026E; Bloks' target is based on 18x 2026E P/E.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Pop Mart (9992.HK)Core coverage name; the report keeps a Neutral rating.
- Strengths
- It has high-visibility IP such as Labubu, Molly, and Twinkle Twinkle, and retains the ability to launch new products and expand overseas.
- Weaknesses
- Domestic online sales in June fell year-over-year, U.S. credit-card sales declined more sharply, and resale discounts for the new Labubu series widened.
- Comparison
- Compared with Miniso and Bloks, Pop Mart is more sensitive to single-core IP momentum and secondary-market sentiment.
- Risks
- Single-IP dependence, insufficient IP portfolio expansion, intensifying competition, pressure on cost and expense control, and overseas development underperforming expectations.
- Miniso (MNSO / 9896.HK)Core coverage name; the report keeps a Buy rating.
- Strengths
- New product launches remain active, with favorable feedback for Yoyo x Toy Story 5, and Miniso Land store expansion provides an offline experiential growth driver.
- Weaknesses
- Both 2Q26 China online sales growth and U.S. credit-card sales growth weakened versus 1Q26.
- Comparison
- Compared with Pop Mart, Miniso relies more on its retail network, product iteration, and global store efficiency; compared with Bloks, its categories and channels are more diversified.
- Risks
- Declining sales productivity in China stores, intensifying competition, potential product innovation or quality issues, weaker-than-expected global comparable-store sales and store openings, geopolitical risk, higher-than-expected cost spend, and Yonghui performance risk.
- Bloks Group Ltd. (0325.HK)Core coverage name; the report keeps a Neutral rating.
- Strengths
- 2Q26 new product and SKU launch cadence accelerated, covering new and established major IP, with several adult-line IP categories seeing month-over-month sales improvement in June.
- Weaknesses
- 1H26 online growth slowed versus 2H25, and growth still needs continuous lift from ongoing launches and channel management.
- Comparison
- Compared with Pop Mart and Miniso, Bloks is more positively driven by launch cadence in this period, but valuation and sustainability still require validation.
- Risks
- IP portfolio expansion and lifecycle may fall short of expectations, channel and inventory management volatility, insufficient brand awareness, failed customer expansion, changing market growth and competition dynamics, gross margin and return volatility, and regulatory risk.
Key data
- Pop Mart China online salesJune Tmall + Douyin flagship-store sales yoy -21%; 2Q26 yoy +16%; 1Q26 yoy +115%; 1H26 roughly yoy +55%The growth slowdown is mainly due to a high base from Labubu supply expansion in June 2025.
- Pop Mart U.S. salesU.S. credit-card sales in June were down around 57% year-over-year; around 35% in May; 2Q26 around -45%; 1Q26 around +3%; 1H26 around -26%The report views the high-base effect and weak recovery in overseas search interest as the main drag.
- Miniso China online salesJune combined sales across Tmall + JD + Douyin were down 15% year-over-year; 2Q26 yoy +3%; 1Q26 yoy +43%New product activity remains lively, but overall online sales momentum weakened on a sequential basis.
- Miniso U.S. salesJune U.S. credit-card sales were up 15% year-over-year; around 32% in May; 2Q26 yoy +22%Growth has slowed versus the prior month, potentially due to the high-base effect.
- Bloks new product cadenceThe year-over-year and month-over-month number of new series/SKU launches increased in 2Q26The launch set covers new and legacy IP such as Toy Story, Marvel Spider Man, Ultraman, Transformers, and Kamen Rider.
- Labubu resale pricingThe Hair Salon series sold about 70k units in its first month on Douyin; resale discount for non-hidden variants widened from about 5% at launch to about 40%The fast decline in resale prices indicates weaker momentum than earlier series.
- Movie IP heatBy 2026-07-06, global box office for Toy Story 5 was about US$765mn; Minions & Monsters about US$182mn after openingThese film IPs provide content catalysts for Miniso and Bloks new product sales.
Impact & implications
For investment implications, the report signals marginal weakening rather than a broad collapse in consumer demand and IP heat. Pop Mart still has strong IP assets, but a high base, widening secondary-market discount, and cooling overseas demand could pressure near-term expectations; Miniso's new product capability and store expansion remain supports, but online and U.S. sales slowdowns need close monitoring; Bloks benefits in the short term from more frequent launches and adult-line IP momentum, but the persistence of launch-driven growth needs to be validated.
Risks
- A high base could continue to depress year-over-year growth rates.
- Weak overseas consumer sentiment and inflation pressure may weigh on toy and IP retail demand.
- If the heat of core IP such as Labubu cannot be sustained, Pop Mart sales and valuation could be affected.
- Widening resale discounts for new products may signal weakening marginal supply-demand balance.
- There are scope differences between e-commerce platform data and company-wide channel revenue, so it may not fully represent operating performance.
- Higher competition, insufficient product innovation, poor channel inventory management, and rising cost investments could all pressure margins.
What to watch
- Whether Bloks's July run-rate on Douyin plush toy sales can catch up to June.
- Whether secondary-market discounts for core IP such as Labubu, Molly, and Twinkle Twinkle continue to widen.
- Whether Miniso's post-launch sales of Yoyo x Toy Story 5 can sustain the strong initial performance.
- The sustainability of Bloks' new and adult-line IP sales on Tmall, JD, and Douyin.
- Whether U.S. credit-card sales and Google Trends show an overseas demand inflection.
- The pace of Miniso Land store count, sales productivity, and overseas expansion.