China PC and tablet shipments continued to decline year-over-year in May 2026

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley Greater China Technology Hardware team’s “Chart of the Day,” focusing on China PC and tablet shipment data for May 2026. Based on IDC shipment data, the report shows that the China PC and tablet market remained in year-over-year contraction in May, though month-over-month data improved, with the tablet month-over-month rebound being more pronounced.

Core views

The core conclusion is that China’s end-user hardware demand has not yet returned to a year-over-year growth path. PC shipments in May were down 14% year-over-year and 8% year-over-year year-to-date; tablet shipments in May were down 7% year-over-year and 6% year-over-date year-to-date. At the company level, Apple in the PC category and Lenovo in the tablet category stood out, while vendors like Huawei PC, Dell PC, and Xiaomi tablets showed larger year-over-year declines.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly shipment-tracking framework, breaking down IDC-disclosed China PC and tablet shipment data by category, vendor, month-over-month, year-over-year, and year-to-date cumulative year-over-year to assess end-user hardware demand, brand share changes, and supply-chain sentiment.

Methodology notes

• Industry data trackingIDC monthly shipment tracking

  Split PC and tablet shipment volumes by category and vendor

  By reviewing single-month shipments, month-over-month, year-over-year, and year-to-date cumulative year-over-year changes in May, the report tracks differences in China technology hardware terminal demand and brand performance.

• Relative industry viewMorgan Stanley Industry View

  In-Line industry view

  Morgan Stanley disclosed an Asia Pacific industry view of In-Line, meaning analysts expect performance in the covered segment over the next 12-18 months to be broadly in line with the relevant market benchmark.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China PC supply chain

  Directly relevant

  Strengths

  Certain brands such as Apple and Lenovo have relative or year-over-year performance above the broader market.

  Weaknesses

  Overall May shipments declined 14% year-over-year and 8% year-over-year year-to-date, with total demand still weak.

  Comparison

  The decline in PCs was larger than tablets, indicating stronger recovery pressure in this category.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected refresh demand from enterprises and consumers, inventory adjustment, and price competition.

• China tablet supply chain

  Directly relevant

  Strengths

  May month-over-month growth was +26%, and Lenovo and Huawei were positive year-over-year for the month.

  Weaknesses

  Overall May still declined 7% year-over-year and 6% year-over-year year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Tablets showed smaller year-over-year decline than PCs, with more evident month-over-month improvement.

  Risks

  Demand sustainability remains unverified because promotions or new-product cadence can cause monthly volatility.

• Lenovo

  Key vendor sample

  Strengths

  Relatively resilient PC share performance; tablet May yoy +42%, year-to-date +25%.

  Weaknesses

  PC business was still slightly down year-over-year in May and year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Significantly outperformed the broader market in tablets, with a smaller decline than the industry in PCs.

  Risks

  If total China PC volume continues to shrink, scale advantage may still be dragged down by weak demand.

• Huawei

  Key vendor sample

  Strengths

  Huawei tablets were +7% year-over-year in May with strong monthly shipment scale.

  Weaknesses

  Huawei PC in May was -39% year-over-year and -26% year-over-year year-to-date; tablets were still -4% year-over-year year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Tablet performance was clearly better than PC.

  Risks

  Disparate performance across categories, and the report flags export controls and related compliance constraints.

• Apple

  Key vendor sample

  Strengths

  Apple PC in May was +45% year-over-year and +48% year-to-date, significantly stronger than the industry.

  Weaknesses

  Apple tablets in May were -13% year-over-year and -6% year-over-year year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Apple is strong in PCs but weaker in tablets relative to its own PC performance.

  Risks

  New-product cycles, channel replenishment, and a high base may affect sustainability.

• Xiaomi

  Key vendor sample

  Strengths

  Xiaomi tablets showed +31% month-over-month in May, indicating monthly recovery.

  Weaknesses

  Xiaomi tablets were -46% year-over-year in May and -41% year-over-year year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Among major disclosed tablet vendors, Xiaomi had relatively large year-over-year pressure.

  Risks

  Tablet demand, product cadence, and competitive pressure may continue to weigh on shipments.

Key data

• China PC shipmentsMay 2026: 2.89 million units, +2% month-over-month and -14% year-over-year; year-to-date 13.6 million units, -8% year-over-yearData source is IDC as cited by the report.
• China tablet shipmentsMay 2026: 2.81 million units, +26% month-over-month and -7% year-over-year; year-to-date 13.2 million units, -6% year-over-yearTablet month-over-month recovery was stronger than PCs, but year-over-year remains negative.
• Lenovo PCMay 2026: 1.114 million units, +29% month-over-month and -6% year-over-year; year-to-date 4.65 million units, -1% year-over-yearThe largest PC vendor, with a smaller decline than the overall PC market.
• Huawei PCMay 2026: 192,000 units, -24% month-over-month and -39% year-over-year; year-to-date 1.16 million units, -26% year-over-yearNotably strong year-over-year pressure in PC shipments.
• Apple PCMay 2026: 218,000 units, -9% month-over-month and +45% year-over-year; year-to-date 937,000 units, +48% year-over-yearOutstanding year-over-year performance in the PC category.
• Huawei tabletMay 2026: 864,000 units, +27% month-over-month and +7% year-over-year; year-to-date 4.23 million units, -4% year-over-yearMonthly year-over-year turned positive, but cumulative remains slightly down.
• Apple tabletMay 2026: 648,000 units, +19% month-over-month and -13% year-over-year; year-to-date 3.11 million units, -6% year-over-yearTablet shipments remain weak versus the prior-year period.
• Xiaomi tabletMay 2026: 261,000 units, +31% month-over-month and -46% year-over-year; year-to-date 1.32 million units, -41% year-over-yearAmong disclosed vendors, the year-over-year decline is one of the largest.
• Lenovo tabletMay 2026: 303,000 units, +70% month-over-month and +42% year-over-year; year-to-date 1.01 million units, +25% year-over-yearBoth single-month and cumulative tablet business showed clear growth.

Impact & implications

The data implies a neutral-to-cautious bias for the Greater China technology hardware supply chain: overall PC and tablet shipments are still in year-over-year decline, suggesting that consumer electronics terminal demand recovery is insufficient; however, performance diverges across brands, which could lead to shifts in supply-chain order composition. From an investment perspective, attention should focus on companies with share gains, product-cycle changes, or channel improvements, rather than simply betting on total industry rebound.

Risks

• China PC and tablet terminal demand remains persistently below expectations.
• Monthly shipment data can be influenced by channel replenishment, new-product launch timing, or promotional activity, so monthly month-over-month improvement does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal.
• Brand share changes may intensify price competition and volatility in supply-chain orders.
• The report mentions U.S. Executive Order 14032, export controls, and related entity restrictions, so investors and traders should pay attention to compliance risks.
• Morgan Stanley disclosed that it has or may have investment banking and other business relationships with several covered companies; research users should be aware of potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Whether China PC and tablet shipments in the next 6-8 months can stabilize from year-over-year contraction.
• Whether Lenovo tablet high growth and Apple PC high growth prove sustainable.
• Whether the large year-over-year declines in Huawei PC and Xiaomi tablets narrow.
• Subsequent IDC monthly data and channel-inventory changes.
• Whether the Greater China technology hardware industry view changes from In-Line.