Barclays 1H26 CIO Survey: 2026 IT Spending Outlook Remains Stable
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Barclays 1H26 CIO Survey: 2026 IT Spending Outlook Remains Stable
Barclays' spring survey of 100 CIOs shows that 2026 IT spending growth expectations remain at 3.8%, with AI, public cloud, software, and security still the core incremental growth areas.
- 2026 IT spending growth is expected at 3.8%, in line with the expectation collected in the 2H25 survey; 87% of respondents expect spending to increase in 2026.
- AI-related spending as a share of total IT spending rose to 4.8%, and the report believes AI may be one of the factors driving overall IT spending higher.
- Software and services spending trends are overall stronger than hardware, with security spending the strongest, as 76% of respondents expect growth.
- Public cloud spending growth expectations remain at 63%, while private cloud growth expectations rose from 36% to 43%; at the same time, 88% of respondents plan to move some workloads back to private cloud or on-premises.
- Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are relatively well positioned in AI- and cloud-related spending; traditional vendors such as Dell/EMC and HPE/JNPR still face budget pressure amid cloud migration.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is based on Barclays' 1H26 CIO survey and assesses spending trends for 2026 enterprise IT budgets across hardware, software, cloud, AI, security, and information services. The survey shows that despite memory market volatility, tariff exposure, and macro uncertainty, CIO expectations for 2026 IT spending remain stable, with North American demand relatively stronger and EMEA still weaker.
Core views
The core view is that the enterprise IT spending outlook remains resilient, with AI, public cloud, software applications, security, and services as the main supports. Divergence is emerging within hardware, with storage and communications relatively better, while PCs, printing, and servers are weaker. In cloud, public cloud still maintains relatively strong growth expectations, but private cloud spending expectations have been revised upward, and demand for workload repatriation remains high, reflecting the combined influence of cost, security, compliance, and AI economics on enterprise architecture choices.
Analysis framework
The report uses CIO survey questionnaires and cross-period comparison, comparing 1H26 survey results with 2H25 and earlier surveys to observe trends in IT budget growth ranges, cloud vendor rankings, AI-related spending, workload migration, and acceleration/deceleration across product categories. Some questions use weighted average scores to measure the relative strength of vendors or categories.
Methodology notes
CIO spending expectation survey
The survey collected 100 CIO responses in spring 2026 to measure 2026 enterprise IT spending growth, cloud and AI spending, software priorities, and changes in hardware demand.
Half-year change in expectations for the same year
The report compares 2026 expectations in the 1H26 survey with 2026 expectations in the 2H25 survey to determine whether budget expectations improved, deteriorated, or remained stable.
Weighted average of spending growth ranges
Weighted growth expectations for hardware categories are calculated based on the proportion of respondents falling into each growth range; for example, Up >10% is assigned +12.5%, Up 6-10% is assigned +7.5%, Up 1-5% is assigned +2.5%, flat is assigned 0, and corresponding negative values are assigned to decline ranges.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- MicrosoftA primary beneficiary of AI, cloud, and software spending
- Strengths
- It continues to rank near the top among cloud providers, with Azure/OpenAI maintaining leadership at a 66% adoption rate; AI-related spending expectations are favorable for it.
- Weaknesses
- Azure/OpenAI adoption slipped slightly from 69% in 2H25 to 66%, and cloud price increases have also moderated.
- Comparison
- The report believes Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are the hyperscale cloud vendors most favorably positioned by this survey.
- Risks
- Cloud optimization, slower price increases, multi-cloud diversion, and enterprise workload repatriation may limit some upside.
- AmazonA beneficiary of public cloud and AI-related IT spending
- Strengths
- AWS remains one of the main public cloud options and ranks near the top in vendor scoring for AI-related spending.
- Weaknesses
- AWS also appears on the higher-risk list in some cloud-related budget reduction questions, indicating two-way effects in customer spending mix.
- Comparison
- It sits alongside Azure at the core of CIO multi-cloud architecture, but the report shows Azure has stronger mindshare as the preferred vendor.
- Risks
- Lower cloud price increases, workload repatriation, intensifying competition, and customer cost optimization.
- GoogleA secondary beneficiary of public cloud and AI-related IT spending
- Strengths
- Google/Gemini remains in third place and improved slightly versus 2H25, while GCP still retains a position in multi-cloud architectures.
- Weaknesses
- CIO usage and preference still significantly trail Azure and AWS.
- Comparison
- The report lists Google together with Microsoft and Amazon as beneficiaries among hyperscale cloud vendors, but with smaller scale and mindshare share.
- Risks
- Slow cloud share gains and concentration of enterprise AI workloads among the top two suppliers.
- Palo Alto NetworksA beneficiary of security and AI-related spending
- Strengths
- It ranks near the top on the vendor list for incremental IT spending driven by AI, while security remains the strongest spending direction among software and services categories.
- Weaknesses
- Its AI-related vendor score declined slightly versus 2H25 in the survey.
- Comparison
- It holds a strong position in security-related budgets, but still faces competition from other security platforms.
- Risks
- Changes in security budget priorities, platform consolidation, and competitive pricing.
- Dell/EMCA pressured asset amid cloud migration and divergence in hardware budgets
- Strengths
- It still has sources of demand in some hardware and AI infrastructure scenarios.
- Weaknesses
- It is listed as one of the vendors most negatively affected by spending reductions caused by cloud migration.
- Comparison
- Compared with hyperscale cloud vendors, traditional infrastructure vendors are more vulnerable in the cloud migration survey.
- Risks
- Enterprise budgets continuing to shift toward public cloud, AI cloud platforms, and software services.
- HPE/JNPRTraditional infrastructure and networking vendors with mixed sentiment
- Strengths
- Its score on the most vulnerable list fell by 6 points from the prior period, indicating some easing of negative pressure.
- Weaknesses
- It still ranks near the top in budget-cut risk under cloud migration.
- Comparison
- Pressure may have eased slightly relative to Dell/EMC, but it still lags cloud and software platform assets.
- Risks
- It remains uncertain whether private cloud repatriation can translate into actual hardware purchases.
Key data
- Survey sample100 CIO responsesResponses were submitted in spring 2026.
- 2026 IT spending growth expectation3.8%In line with the 2026 expectation collected in the 2H25 survey.
- Share of respondents expecting spending growth in 202687%13% of respondents expect spending to decline or remain unchanged.
- AI-related spending as a share of total IT spending4.8%Higher than 3.8% in 1H25 and 3.4% in 1H24.
- Public cloud spending growth expectation63%In line with the 2H25 survey, but with improvement in the higher-end growth ranges.
- Private cloud spending growth expectation43%Higher than 36% in the 2H25 survey.
- Security spending growth expectation76%The strongest among software and services categories.
- Azure/OpenAI as the primary AI model/cloud provider66%Still well ahead of other options, but below 69% in 2H25.
- Share of respondents planning to move workloads back to private cloud or on-premises88%In line with 2H25 and at a high level since the survey began.
- Expected 2026 share of workloads and IT spending in public cloud42% / 22%Both are above 2025 levels of 32% and 13%, respectively.
Impact & implications
The survey results imply that enterprise technology spending in 2026 should remain stable, but incremental spending is more concentrated in AI, cloud, security, ERP, BI/Analytics, and ITSM. In terms of investment mapping, hyperscale cloud vendors, the AI ecosystem, and security vendors benefit more clearly, while traditional hardware vendors and vendors pressured by cloud migration still face structural pressure.
Risks
- Macro uncertainty, tariff exposure, and memory market dynamics may affect enterprise IT budgets.
- The survey sample consists of 100 CIO responses, and some vendor scores may be affected by the limited number of responses.
- Public cloud demand remains strong, but the high rate of workload repatriation may affect the revenue mix of different cloud and hardware vendors.
- AI spending share is rising, but most respondents still expect AI-related spending to account for less than 5% of total IT spending, so the commercialization pace still needs to be monitored.
- Traditional hardware vendors may continue to face pressure from cloud migration, budget reallocation, and price competition.
What to watch
- Whether 2026 enterprise IT budget growth continues to hold at 3.8% or is revised further upward.
- Whether AI-related spending as a share of total IT spending can continue to rise.
- Relative changes in public and private cloud spending expectations, especially whether repatriated workloads are actually implemented.
- Share changes for Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud among enterprises' preferred cloud vendors.
- Whether security, ERP, BI/Analytics, and ITSM continue to maintain software spending priority.
- Budget risks for traditional vendors such as Dell/EMC, HPE/JNPR, VMware, and Citrix in the context of cloud migration.