Nomura Model Forecasts USD/CNY Central Parity at 6.7483

Overview

Nomura released an update to its USD/CNY central parity model, covering Asia ex-Japan FX strategy. The report's core forecast is 6.7483, and it also provides a forecast of 6.7695 incorporating the countercyclical factor.

Core views

The model indicates that the USD/CNY central parity forecast is 390 pips below the prior forecast, but remains 101 pips above the previous official spot closing price. After incorporating the countercyclical factor, the forecast is higher than the unadjusted model value, indicating that this adjustment affects the model's central parity projection.

Analysis framework

The report uses a USD/CNY central parity model, comparing the model forecast with the prior forecast and the previous official spot closing price, while separately presenting the forecast adjusted for the countercyclical factor. The report refers to weighted contributions from overnight moves to forecast changes, recent model errors, and daily central parity changes, but does not provide quantifiable chart details.

Methodology notes

• Quantitative ModelUSD/CNY Central Parity Forecast Model

  Forecasting the USD/CNY central parity rate based on market movements

  The model outputs a forecast excluding the countercyclical factor and compares it with the prior forecast and the official spot closing price.

• Policy AdjustmentCountercyclical Factor Adjustment

  Incorporating the countercyclical factor into the central parity forecast

  The report also provides a forecast incorporating the countercyclical factor to assess its impact on model results.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Directly Covered Asset

  Strengths

  The report provides two central parity forecasts, unadjusted and incorporating the countercyclical factor, and clearly states changes relative to the prior forecast and the official spot closing price.

  Weaknesses

  The extracted content does not include specific values from charts of overnight contributions, model errors, and daily changes.

  Comparison

  The unadjusted model forecast is 6.7483; the forecast including the countercyclical factor is 6.7695; the prior model forecast was 6.7873.

  Risks

  The model relies on historical relationships and simplifying assumptions; policy actions, market risk appetite, and unexpected events may cause the actual central parity rate to deviate from the forecast.

Key data

• Model Forecast (Excluding Countercyclical Factor)6.7483USD/CNY central parity forecast.
• Prior Model Forecast6.7873The current forecast is 390 pips lower than the prior forecast.
• Relative to Previous Official Spot Closing Price+101 pipsThe current unadjusted model forecast is above the previous official spot closing price.
• Model Forecast (Including Countercyclical Factor)6.7695178 pips below the previous central parity rate.
• Event Calendar2026-09-24 to 2026-10-07Includes President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and the National Day Golden Week.

Impact & implications

For FX market participants, this update provides a quantitative reference for the short-term USD/CNY central parity rate. The countercyclical factor adjustment raises the forecast from 6.7483 to 6.7695, indicating that policy-related adjustments may materially affect the gap between the central parity rate and a purely market-driven model.

Risks

• Model forecasts do not guarantee the actual central parity rate and may be affected by market volatility and parameter settings.
• The countercyclical factor and other policy-related adjustments are uncertain.
• The report does not provide complete chart data, preventing independent verification of the quantitative contributions of overnight drivers and recent errors.
• Macro events, monetary policy changes, and developments in China-U.S. relations may increase exchange-rate volatility.

What to watch

• Deviations of the official USD/CNY central parity rate from the two model forecasts of 6.7483 and 6.7695.
• The People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee meeting and its policy signals.
• Developments related to President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States in September 2026.
• Liquidity conditions and RMB exchange-rate volatility around the National Day Golden Week.
• Whether model errors continue to widen and the actual impact of the countercyclical factor adjustment.