China innovative drug data at ASCO 2026 may reshape the standard of first-line lung cancer treatment

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' quick catalog and preview of key data points from China pharmaceutical/biotech companies at ASCO 2026. It argues that data from multispecific antibodies and ADCs that entered the clinic in recent years are maturing, and that several first-line phase 3 head-to-head lung cancer studies have significant potential to change the current standard of care. The analysis focuses on first-line NSCLC, differentiated strategies in lung cancer immunotherapy, expansion of ADC targets, and the read-across value of Chinese assets for global development programs.

Core views

The core view is that first-line NSCLC will be the most important data battleground for China innovative drugs at ASCO 2026. Akeso's ivonescimab and Kelun Biotech's sac-TMT are challenging the current standard of care through the PD-1/VEGF bispecific and TROP2 ADC pathways, respectively; if PFS advantages can translate into OS benefit, they could raise the benchmark for similar mechanisms and drive market re-rating. The report also believes these China readouts will affect not only local company valuations but also provide important read-across for global partners or competing assets such as Summit Therapeutics, Merck, and BioNTech.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event-driven and clinical read-across framework, first screening abstract titles from China pharmaceutical/biotech companies at ASCO 2026, then prioritizing them by therapeutic area, development stage, mechanism, data type, and likelihood of changing standard treatment. It focuses on head-to-head phase 3 studies, OS/PFS conversion, global trial comparability, partner development pathways, and market and BD catalyst potential.

Methodology notes

• Clinical catalyst analysisASCO 2026 data readout watchlist

  Identify high-impact readouts by abstract title and clinical stage

  Based on the released abstract titles for ASCO 2026, the report compiles a data catalog of China pharmaceutical/biotech companies and treats first-line phase 3 studies, head-to-head comparisons against standard treatment, and endpoints such as OS/PFS as key clues for judging potential impact.

• Peer asset read-acrossread-across analysis

  Use Chinese study results to infer prospects for global trials and similar mechanisms

  The report emphasizes that Chinese studies such as HARMONi-6 and OptiTROP-Lung05 can provide cross-reference for HARMONi-3, Merck's global phase 3 sac-TMT program, and peer PD-(L)1/VEGF assets.

• Investment research toolGS Factor Profile

  Comparison across growth, financial returns, valuation, and composite dimensions

  The appendix explains that GS Factor Profile provides investment context for stocks through growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles, although the main body of this report primarily uses a clinical event and data catalyst framework.

• M&A scenario analysisM&A Rank

  Assess potential M&A factors by probability of being acquired

  The appendix explains that Goldman Sachs uses an M&A framework to assess the probability of covered companies being acquired; while this report does not disclose M&A ratings for specific companies, BD and global partnerships are seen as important potential implications of the data readouts.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ivonescimab / Akeso

  Core focus asset; PD-1/VEGF bispecific, first-line NSCLC phase 3 readout

  Strengths

  HARMONi-6 previously showed strong PFS benefit; if this OS data is positive, it could reinforce the combination's position as a challenger to the standard of care in first-line combination therapy.

  Weaknesses

  The control arm in HARMONi-6 is Tevimbra plus chemotherapy, while the global HARMONi-3 control arm is Keytruda plus chemotherapy, creating comparability limitations for cross-trial read-across.

  Comparison

  Directly compared with the current PD-1 plus chemotherapy standard regimen, and also provides a benchmark for PD-(L)1/VEGF assets such as SSGJ-707, LM-299/MK2010, and pumitamig.

  Risks

  PFS-to-OS conversion falls short of expectations, inconsistent global trial results, or safety/regulatory acceptance below market expectations.

• sac-TMT / Kelun Biotech

  Core focus asset; TROP2 ADC, phase 3 readout of first-line PD-L1-positive NSCLC in combination with Keytruda

  Strengths

  Previously showed PFS and OS survival benefit in 3L+ EGFRm NSCLC, and the report expects first-line combination PFS to reach 12 to 15 months.

  Weaknesses

  It must demonstrate incremental benefit versus Keytruda monotherapy in the first-line PD-L1-positive population, while balancing ADC toxicity and combination treatment tolerability.

  Comparison

  Meaningful read-across for Merck's planned global phase 3, given the same control arm and dose design.

  Risks

  Insufficient efficacy, safety affecting combination use, or delayed pace of global indication expansion.

• pumitamig / BioNTech

  Global peer comparison asset; PD-L1/VEGF-A bispecific plus chemotherapy with first-line NSCLC Ph2/3 data

  Strengths

  Can serve as a parallel comparison for the PD-(L)1/VEGF mechanism in global studies, helping assess PFS and OS trends.

  Weaknesses

  The report uses it only as a read-across and comparison target, and does not provide specific efficacy data.

  Comparison

  Competes within the same mechanism class as ivonescimab and other PD-(L)1/VEGF assets.

  Risks

  If efficacy or safety is inferior to Chinese assets, commercial confidence in the peer mechanism could weaken.

• BNT324-03 / DualityBio and BioNTech

  ADC asset of interest; phase 3 results for a B7-H3 ADC in taxane-naive mCRPC

  Strengths

  Phase 3 data could further validate the clinical value of B7-H3 as an ADC target.

  Weaknesses

  It needs to demonstrate advantages versus existing ADCs and standard treatment in efficacy, safety, and differentiation.

  Comparison

  Forms a target-validation chain with B7-H3 ADCs such as Hansoh HS-20093 and Kelun SKB500.

  Risks

  Insufficient validation of the B7-H3 target, or unclear ADC toxicity or efficacy margin.

• CS2009 / CStone

  Differentiated lung cancer immunotherapy asset; PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 trispecific antibody

  Strengths

  Adds CTLA-4 on top of the PD-1/VEGF framework, offering room for mechanistic differentiation.

  Weaknesses

  Still in the Ph1/2 stage, with less mature evidence than phase 3 head-to-head assets.

  Comparison

  Compared with bispecifics such as ivonescimab, its differentiation comes from the trispecific mechanism.

  Risks

  Early-stage efficacy is difficult to extrapolate, and safety complexity may be higher.

Key data

• ASCO 2026 meeting dates2026-05-29 to 2026-06-02The meeting will be held in Chicago.
• Full abstract release time2026-05-21 17:00 E.T.Full data will need to await abstract disclosure.
• Key Akeso ivonescimab readoutHARMONi-6, first-line advanced squamous NSCLC, ivonescimab plus chemotherapy OS dataThe report states this is the first OS data disclosure for the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy combination in the first-line setting.
• Key Kelun Biotech sac-TMT readoutOptiTROP-Lung05, first-line PD-L1-positive NSCLC, sac-TMT plus Keytruda versus Keytruda monotherapyThe report reiterates its expectation that first-line combination PFS could reach 12 to 15 months.
• Breadth of Merck sac-TMT development17 phase 3 studies across different tumors have been initiatedChina data could further de-risk global development and affect the roadmap for indication expansion.
• Companies of focusAkeso, Alphamab, BeOne, CSPC, CStone, Hengrui, Henlius, Innovent, Zelgen, Kelun BiotechThe report believes these companies have important data readouts at ASCO 2026 that warrant additional attention.

Impact & implications

If first-line NSCLC phase 3 data for ivonescimab and sac-TMT meet or exceed expectations, they could raise the efficacy threshold for future therapies, improve commercialization expectations for PD-1/VEGF bispecifics and TROP2 ADCs in frontline treatment, and boost the BD value and market valuations of China innovative drug assets. Conversely, if PFS fails to translate into OS or if safety and patient stratification performance fall short, expectations for related peer mechanisms and global trials may face re-pricing.

Risks

• The full ASCO abstracts have not yet been released, so current judgments are based on abstract titles and existing data, creating a risk of incomplete information.
• When reading across Chinese clinical trial results to global trials, differences in comparator drugs, patient composition, dosing, and endpoints may have an impact.
• Competition in the first-line NSCLC standard of care is intense; if OS, safety, or subgroup results are insufficient, market reaction may be materially below expectations.
• The efficacy differentiation of ADCs and multispecific antibodies must be validated together with toxicity, dosing convenience, and commercialization pathways.
• The report does not provide specific company ratings or target prices, so its views on clinical catalysts should not be equated with explicit investment recommendations.

What to watch

• After the full abstract release on May 21, 2026, ivonescimab OS, sac-TMT PFS/OS, and safety details.
• Whether HARMONi-6 results can provide positive read-across for the interim PFS disclosure of global HARMONi-3.
• Whether OptiTROP-Lung05 supports Merck in expanding sac-TMT global phase 3 and indication positioning.
• The efficacy and safety comparability of peer PD-(L)1/VEGF assets such as SSGJ-707, LM-299/MK2010, and pumitamig.
• Whether ADC targets such as B7-H3, HER2, Nectin-4, B7-H4, and TROP2 x HER3 show new clinical validation signals.
• Market reaction, BD progress, and valuation re-rating of relevant China pharmaceutical/biotech companies after the ASCO data release.