Barclays Reiterates Overweight on Amer Sports: Three Brands and DTC Form a Sustainable Growth Flywheel

Overview

This report summarizes Barclays' views following its meeting with Amer Sports management. The firm believes the company is transitioning from growth driven by a single core brand to a growth portfolio jointly powered by Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, delivering revenue growth and operating-margin expansion through selective channel expansion, DTC penetration, category extension, and internationalization.

Core views

Following its meeting with management, Barclays became further convinced of Amer Sports' long-term growth algorithm and global growth trajectory. Its core view is that the company is no longer reliant solely on Arc'teryx, but has three global brand growth opportunities: Arc'teryx is becoming a global premium outdoor brand; Salomon is expanding in “modern outdoor footwear” and athletic lifestyle; and Wilson is extending into soft goods and head-to-toe outfitting through its Tennis 360 strategy. Management prioritizes reinvesting incremental gross profit in brand building, product innovation, and distribution expansion rather than maximizing short-term margins; Barclays believes this can still accompany industry-leading growth and margin improvement. The company has delivered profit growth faster than sales growth for 10 consecutive quarters and recently again reported an above-expectations quarter while raising guidance. Arc'teryx remains the core high-quality growth engine in the investment case. In 2Q26, Technical Apparel revenue grew 30% year over year at constant currency and DTC grew 34%, demonstrating resilient demand across geographies and channels. Growth is no longer driven solely by outerwear, with women's apparel, footwear, and newer product categories all showing momentum; brand operating margins continue to improve despite ongoing investment in stores, talent, and marketing. Barclays believes its largest long-term opportunity lies in North America, particularly the U.S., where brand awareness is low and penetration in key markets remains limited. Company-operated retail, e-commerce, and selective wholesale partnerships, including Dick's House of Sport, are viewed as means to expand reach without diluting scarcity or premium positioning. Salomon is becoming a growth pillar as important as Arc'teryx. In 2Q26, Outdoor Performance revenue grew 35% year over year at constant currency, including 52% DTC growth and 25% wholesale growth, indicating that growth is becoming more diversified across footwear, soft goods, and channels. Management emphasized that the opportunity extends beyond technical trail running to apparel, lifestyle footwear, women's products, and broader international markets; soft-goods performance has exceeded expectations, supporting its positioning as a footwear-led athletic lifestyle and performance brand. Brand awareness remains low, distribution remains highly selective, and expansion with wholesale partners such as JD Sports and Foot Locker is still at an early stage. Barclays believes this prudent rollout focused on key “core markets” can raise awareness while preserving brand integrity and reduce the group's reliance on Arc'teryx; broadened appeal among younger and female consumers should also support the multi-brand growth narrative over the coming years. Wilson provides additional upside. Management noted that the Tennis 360 strategy is extending Wilson from a leader in racquet equipment into a head-to-toe business spanning apparel, footwear, and accessories; soft-goods growth in 2Q26 already outpaced traditional hard goods. This is supported by improved distribution, merchandising, and consumer engagement. Barclays believes Wilson's category expansion is at an earlier stage than that of the other two major brands, but its development in apparel and lifestyle products could become a meaningful long-term contributor to revenue growth and margin expansion. From a channel perspective, DTC is central to the long-term strategy. Group DTC revenue grew 40% year over year in 2Q26 and represented 55% of revenue. The report argues that the direct model delivers higher gross margins, stronger inventory control, better customer data, pricing, and brand-presentation capabilities; as store productivity rises and digital capabilities improve, DTC could also provide operating leverage. New stores and DTC expansion not only drive margins but can create a brand-awareness “halo” across apparel, footwear, accessories, and women's products. Meanwhile, Arc'teryx and Salomon have lower awareness than larger global athletic and outdoor brands, with product innovation, community engagement, selective distribution, and new stores driving organic customer acquisition. Recent execution is viewed as evidence that the long-term plan is achievable. The company raised FY26 revenue, margin, and EPS guidance after strong 2Q26 results. Management continues to target long-term low- to mid-teens revenue growth and sustained operating-margin expansion; Barclays believes growth is driven by multiple brands, regions, and channels rather than a single product or category, making it more durable. The report identifies four future drivers: low awareness, limited distribution, and substantial white space for Arc'teryx and Salomon in North America; distribution expansion while protecting brand equity; new consumer cohorts such as women and footwear consumers; and structural margin expansion from strong sell-through, DTC, a more premium product mix, and scale efficiencies. Salomon's investor day in Annecy, France, on September 17 is expected to provide information on business baselines, the long-term growth framework, market opportunity, store-opening roadmap, key metrics, and the innovation pipeline, potentially helping the market understand its long-term potential beyond traditional trail and hiking businesses. On valuation, Barclays maintains its USD 50.00 price target, applying a 26x NTM P/E multiple to its CY28 adjusted EPS estimate of USD 1.91; this multiple is above the current 22.9x NTM P/E and reflects its view of Amer Sports as a long-term compounder with multiple growth levers. The firm's FY26, FY27, and FY28 adjusted EPS estimates are USD 1.30, USD 1.62, and USD 1.91, respectively, versus Bloomberg consensus of USD 1.28, USD 1.60, and USD 1.93. The upside case is USD 55.00, based on a 26x P/E multiple and CY28 earnings power of USD 2.10, contingent on continued share gains, faster DTC growth, and scale-driven operating leverage; the downside case is USD 28.00, based on a 16x P/E multiple and CY28 earnings power of USD 1.72, assuming execution missteps, macro deterioration, increased promotions, slower China growth, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Regarding tariffs, adjusted gross margin increased 710 basis points year over year to 65.8% in 2Q26, including a 390-basis-point contribution from net tariff refunds and approximately USD 0.08 of adjusted EPS. Excluding refunds, underlying gross margin still expanded by more than 300 basis points, driven by favorable pricing, product, channel, and regional mix, as well as lower freight and tariff costs. FY26 gross-margin guidance was raised from 59.0%-59.5% to 60.5%-61.0%, including an 80-basis-point benefit from the 2Q net tariff refund, and assumes that the recently announced Section 301 tariff rates remain unchanged for the rest of FY26. Management said the impact was relatively modest versus the lower tariff-rate assumption in its 2Q plan, that most refund claims had been received, and that remaining refunds are not expected to be material.

Analysis framework

Barclays first tested the long-term growth framework through its meeting with management, then analyzed the sources of growth and the channel and margin mechanisms across five business lines: Arc'teryx, Salomon, Wilson, DTC, and recent execution, validating these with quarterly operating data and management guidance. The firm then used its PRISM fundamental cycle framework to assess the company's stage of development and constructed its price target and upside/downside scenarios using a forward adjusted EPS-based P/E valuation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Estimate the price target by applying a forward P/E multiple to CY28 adjusted EPS

  Barclays applies a 26x NTM P/E multiple to CY28 adjusted EPS of USD 1.91 to derive its USD 50.00 price target; upside and downside cases combine different earnings-power and P/E assumptions.

• (Method Outside the Vocabulary)

  Barclays' proprietary PRISM Curve fundamental cycle analysis

  The framework seeks to identify potential inflection points in a business model through management's proactive initiatives and changes in sales and margins; the report places Amer Sports in the “HUNT” stage of actively pursuing market share.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Amer Sports, Inc.（AS）

  Brand expansion at Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, together with DTC growth and margin improvement, form the company's long-term growth thesis.

  Strengths

  Arc'teryx and Salomon retain low brand awareness, limited distribution, and substantial international expansion opportunity; a higher DTC mix supports gross margins, inventory control, and customer relationships; Wilson's Tennis 360 provides an additional growth source.

  Weaknesses

  The market continues to debate the durability of Arc'teryx growth, the sustainability of Salomon's acceleration, China exposure, and whether the current valuation already reflects most of the opportunity.

  Comparison

  Arc'teryx and Salomon are considered to have lower awareness than larger global athletic and outdoor brands.

  Risks

  Execution missteps, macro deterioration, increased promotions, slower China growth, and heightened geopolitical tensions could lead to the downside scenario.

Key data

• Rating and Price TargetOVERWEIGHT; USD 50.00Both the rating and price target are maintained.
• Current PriceUSD 34.02Price as of August 19, 2026.
• Arc'teryx GrowthTechnical Apparel revenue +30% (constant-currency year over year); DTC +34%2Q26.
• Salomon GrowthOutdoor Performance revenue +35% (constant-currency year over year); DTC +52%; wholesale +25%2Q26.
• Group DTCRevenue +40%; 55% of revenue2Q26 year-over-year growth and revenue mix.
• Adjusted Gross Margin65.8%, +710 basis points year over year2Q26; includes a 390-basis-point benefit from net tariff refunds.
• FY26 Gross Margin Guidance60.5% to 61.0%Previously 59.0% to 59.5%; includes an 80-basis-point benefit from the 2Q net tariff refund.
• Adjusted EPS EstimatesFY26 USD 1.30; FY27 USD 1.62; FY28 USD 1.91Versus Bloomberg consensus of USD 1.28, USD 1.60, and USD 1.93, respectively.
• Revenue Estimates2025A USD 6,566 million; 2026E USD 8,164 million; 2027E USD 9,432 million; 2028E USD 10,508 millionRevenue CAGR of 17.0% from 2025A to 2028E.
• Upside and Downside CasesUpside USD 55.00; downside USD 28.00Based respectively on a 26x P/E multiple on CY28 earnings power of USD 2.10 and a 16x P/E multiple on USD 1.72.

Impact & implications

Barclays believes that the combination of multi-brand drivers, disciplined distribution expansion, DTC penetration, category expansion, and internationalization enhances the credibility of the long-term growth framework. The firm judges that if the company continues delivering double-digit market-share growth and earnings growth, the market may ultimately assign it a higher growth-company valuation multiple.

Risks

• Company execution below expectations could pressure growth and earnings performance.
• A deterioration in the macro environment could weaken demand.
• Increased promotional activity could erode brand positioning and margins.
• Slower growth in China could affect the growth trajectory.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions are one of the assumptions in the report's downside scenario.

What to watch

• Further disclosure at Salomon's investor day in Annecy, France, on September 17 regarding the long-term growth framework, market opportunity, store-opening roadmap, key metrics, and innovation pipeline.
• Progress in brand awareness, distribution expansion, and penetration of new consumer cohorts for Arc'teryx and Salomon in North America and other markets.
• Whether DTC store productivity, digital capabilities, and a higher direct-sales mix continue to generate operating leverage.
• Execution against raised FY26 revenue, margin, and EPS guidance, as well as the impact of tariff refunds and tariff rates on gross margins.