June China restaurant same-store sales remained weak, while freshly prepared beverages were relatively more resilient

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ monthly high-frequency tracker on the Chinese restaurant industry, focusing on June brand operating performance, same-store sales, store openings and closures, promotion environment, weather impact, air traffic, commodity prices, company news, and sector valuation. The overall conclusion is that June restaurant same-store sales remained weak, with weather adding extra headwind; however, freshly prepared beverages still showed relative resilience under elevated base effects from last year, and several brands improved on a month-on-month basis.

Core views

Key views are: first, recovery for traditional dining and some full-service brands remains weak, with Haidilao table turnover stable but below prior expectations, and Tai Er weakening due to weather impact; second, the freshly prepared beverages segment outperformed concerns, with Guming, ChaPanda, and Chagee improving on a month-on-month basis supported by new products, coffee category expansion, and promotion calendars; third, promotion activity increased versus May, but mainly from calendar-anchored and routine campaigns, and overall discount intensity remains relatively disciplined; fourth, high-frequency indicators show improving summer airlift, mixed movements in certain commodity prices, but demand recovery remains uneven.

Analysis framework

The report conducts integrated tracking of monthly brand operating data, same-store sales trends, net store openings and closures, app activity, weather deviations, airlift capacity, commodity prices, promotional activity, and peer valuation tables, and overlays Goldman Sachs forecasts and market expectations to judge whether company performance is ahead of or behind expectations.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency operating trackingMonthly same-store sales and store network tracking

  SSSG, table-turn rate, store-level GMV, net store openings/closures

  Use monthly brand and channel data to monitor operating momentum, with emphasis on month-on-month trends, year-on-year pressure, recovery versus 2019 levels, and deviation from Goldman Sachs forecasts.

• Industry environment analysisDemand and cost high-frequency indicators

  weather, airlift, commodity prices, promotional activity

  Explain short-term sales fluctuations through weather, traffic and cost indicators, and use promotion tracking to assess whether competitive intensity is escalating.

• Valuation comparison12-month P/E and EV/EBITDA peer valuation

  peer sector valuation

  The report presents forward 12-month valuation multiples for major restaurant and freshly prepared beverage companies to gauge relative sector valuation and the target-price framework.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Haidilao International Holding (6862.HK)

  Covered company; rating Neutral

  Strengths

  Brand table turnover is stable, and franchised store openings are progressing faster than Goldman Sachs expected.

  Weaknesses

  June table turns were about 3.8x, recovering to roughly 80% of 2019 levels, with 1H26 average table-turn growth at about 2%, below Goldman Sachs' assumption of 4% year-on-year same-store sales growth per store.

  Comparison

  Recovery level remains below May's low-to-mid 80% range and is near April's level.

  Risks

  Broadly weak consumption, table-turn improvement below expectations, and net store closures higher than expected.

• Guming Holdings Ltd. (1364.HK)

  Covered company; rating Buy on CL

  Strengths

  June SSSG improved significantly versus May, which Goldman Sachs viewed as better than market expectations; coffee expansion and differentiated new products provide support.

  Weaknesses

  Store openings have lagged versus company expectations at the start of the year.

  Comparison

  Compared with year-ahead SSSG expectations reset lower by the market, Goldman Sachs remains constructive, expecting 2026E SSSG to be flat.

  Risks

  Underperformance of new products and coffee expansion, rising reliance on promotions, and store rollout slower than plan.

• Chagee (CHA)

  Covered company; rating Neutral

  Strengths

  June SSSG and store-level GMV improved month-on-month, with clear contribution from new products.

  Weaknesses

  2Q SSSG still declined year-on-year, and improvement relies on sustained successful new-product launch cadence.

  Comparison

  2Q results were broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ expected -13% year-on-year trend, with June improving from double-digit decline in 4Q and 5Q to a smaller deterioration.

  Risks

  Short product lifecycle, peak in domestic momentum, and uncertain overseas execution.

• Jiumaojiu (9922.HK)

  Covered company; rating Buy

  Strengths

  Tai Er New 6.0 stores delivered initial sales about 30% to 40% higher than the old model, and new-model store performance was relatively strong.

  Weaknesses

  Tai Er SSSG in June slowed under weather pressure, while overseas business continued to weigh on overall SSSG; the Song brand remains under pressure.

  Comparison

  Tai Er 2Q SSSG was slightly below Goldman Sachs implied low-mid-double-digit expectation, with the Jiumaojiu brand slightly better than expectations and Song below expectations.

  Risks

  Persistent overseas drag, validation failure of new store models, and weather and consumption environment shocks.

• Gourmet Master (2723.TW)

  Covered company; rating Neutral

  Strengths

  U.S. sales grew 4.9% in June, and Taiwan 2Q growth was above 15%, both better than Goldman Sachs expectations.

  Weaknesses

  Sales in Mainland China were down 46% year-on-year, still under significant pressure.

  Comparison

  Mainland China 2Q high-40% range decline was weaker than Goldman Sachs’ roughly -40% expectation; U.S. local-currency growth of about 6% broadly aligned with expectations.

  Risks

  Mainland China store contraction, franchise transition execution risk, and regional performance divergence.

Key data

• Haidilao June table turnsabout 3.8xabout 80% of 2019 levels, below the low-to-mid 80% level in May.
• Haidilao June store movement5 company-operated store openings, 2 franchised store openings, 6 company-operated store closuresNet closure of 8 stores in 1H26, below Goldman Sachs’ prior expectation of a net closure of 23 stores.
• Guming June SSSGslight low-single-digit declineImproved significantly versus May, supported by a shift of the buy-one-get-one promotion calendar to June, coffee category expansion, and new products.
• Chagee June store-level GMVabove Rmb350kSSSG and GMV both improved month-on-month; new products contributed about 15% of GMV.
• Tai Er China June SSSGlow-single-digit growthDouble-digit growth in the first three weeks, but the last week was hit by adverse weather.
• Jiumaojiu 2Q26 Tai Er China SSSG12%Slight acceleration from 11% in 1Q26, with about 1% ASP support.
• Gourmet Master China June salesy/y -46%Same as in May; store count remained around 290 to 300 stores, indicating continued pressure on China operations.
• Domestic flight capacity15% higher than FY2026 2019 levelAs of the 7-day average to July 5, 2026, it improved month-on-month after entering the summer peak season.
• Promotion environmentpromotions increased but remain rationalExamples include Luckin SKUs at Rmb9.9, Guming two-day buy-one-get-one, Pizza Hut China self-service campaign, and DPC buy-one-get-one.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the report suggests that demand recovery in Chinese dining remains relatively slow, so short-term earnings and store expansion expectations for traditional full-service brands may face downward revision risk; however, in freshly prepared beverages, brands with product innovation, category expansion capability, and disciplined promotion policies may show relatively stronger operating resilience. The market needs to distinguish between temporary disturbances from weather and promotion calendars and the persistence of brand-level product strength, store models, and improvements in store-level economics.

Risks

• Weather disruptions continue to affect offline footfall and restaurant consumption.
• The China consumption environment remains soft, causing slower-than-expected same-store recovery.
• If promotions intensify further, ASP and margins may come under pressure.
• New-product performance and product life-cycle are uncertain, particularly regarding the durability of SSSG improvement for freshly prepared beverage brands.
• Slower-than-planned store openings or widening net closures may weigh on growth expectations.
• Overseas or regional drag may affect a brand’s overall same-store performance.

What to watch

• Dining footfall and airlift effects on offline consumption during the summer peak from July to August.
• Whether Haidilao table-turn rates can return to above the low-to-mid-80% of 2019 recovery level.
• Whether Guming’s coffee category expansion and new products continue to support SSSG.
• Whether Chagee’s new-product contribution can persist and keep SSSG improving month-on-month.
• The outcome of Tai Er 6.0 new model validation and its impact on store efficiency.
• Whether promotion competition shifts from calendar-based activity to a more aggressive price war.
• The impact of pork, poultry, and mutton price changes on margins.