Rising AI priority drives CIO budget improvement, with more constructive readings for public cloud and cybersecurity
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Rising AI priority drives CIO budget improvement, with more constructive readings for public cloud and cybersecurity
Citi's 2Q26 CIO survey shows that expected IT budget growth over the next 12 months rose to +3.3%. AI/data analytics remains the top investment priority, while the crowding-out effect of AI funding on traditional IT budgets is also increasing.
- Global expected IT budget growth over the next 12 months rose from +2.6% in the March survey to +3.3%; the United States rose to +3.0% and EMEA to +3.9%.
- Data analytics/AI remains the top CIO investment priority, followed by cybersecurity in second place, digital transformation in third, and customer applications rising to fourth.
- AI currently accounts for approximately 6.5% of IT budgets. 69% of GenAI funding comes from new/additional budgets, but nearly half of CIOs believe AI is crowding out other IT budgets.
- Public cloud infrastructure spending is expected to grow by approximately 7% on average over the next 12 months, and 53% of CIOs prefer to run LLM workloads in the public cloud.
- Within cybersecurity, identity, endpoint, and web security priorities are rising. AI-driven DDoS attacks, malicious bots, API exposure, and agent identity risks are emerging sources of demand.
Report interpretation
Overview
Based on Citi's 2Q26 CIO survey of 100 key IT decision-makers, this report assesses changes in IT budgets, AI investment priorities, cloud consumption, cybersecurity, software, hardware, IT services, and communications infrastructure demand across the global technology and communications industry. The core conclusion is that the budget backdrop improved from the previous quarter, AI continues to rise as the most important investment theme, and it is beginning to reshape the structure of enterprise IT budgets more visibly.
Core views
The report believes the IT spending environment is improving overall, with global IT budget growth expectations for the next 12 months rising to +3.3% and accelerating in both the United States and EMEA. AI/data analytics remains the top CIO investment priority, benefiting public cloud, data platforms, cybersecurity, AI platforms, and certain communications infrastructure. However, AI budgets are not entirely incremental: although 69% of GenAI funding comes from new or additional funding, an increasing number of CIOs also report that AI is crowding out traditional IT budgets and may lead to organizational headcount reductions.
Analysis framework
The report compares quarterly CIO questionnaire responses on budget expectations for the next 12 months versus the past 12 months, investment priorities, cloud consumption trends, AI funding sources, LLM deployment environments, cybersecurity subcategory priorities, hardware spending, and industry-level readings. It maps the survey results to application and data software, cybersecurity, internet, European technology, hardware, IT services, communications services, and infrastructure sectors.
Methodology notes
CIO budget and investment priority survey
The sample consists of 100 key IT decision-makers. Enterprise technology spending trends are assessed through questions on expected budget growth over the next 12 months, investment priorities, cloud consumption, AI funding sources, and intended vendor spending.
Sector mapping analysis
CIO survey results are mapped across application and data software, cybersecurity, internet/cloud, European technology, hardware, IT services, and communications infrastructure to identify beneficiaries and potential areas of pressure.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- MSFTBeneficiary of AI and public cloud
- Strengths
- Microsoft remains one of the preferred vendors when CIOs increase AI spending. The shift in identity security procurement toward hyperscalers is also favorable for MSFT.
- Weaknesses
- As a large incumbent IT vendor, it may also face customer budget reallocation and increased price sensitivity.
- Comparison
- Compared with independent identity security vendors, hyperscalers have an advantage in integrated procurement and accommodating cloud workloads.
- Risks
- If AI spending shifts from new budgets to budget displacement, it could affect the quality of growth in traditional software and non-cloud businesses.
- AMZN / AWSBeneficiary of public cloud and GenAI workloads
- Strengths
- AI workloads are driving demand for public cloud infrastructure, and the report has greater confidence in its AWS 2Q26 revenue growth forecast.
- Weaknesses
- Some LLM workloads may shift to hybrid cloud, private cloud, or on-premises environments, potentially reducing pure public-cloud incremental growth.
- Comparison
- Along with Google Cloud, it is a primary beneficiary of GenAI cloud demand.
- Risks
- Expected cloud consumption growth has been slightly reduced from the higher level in the previous survey, requiring monitoring of actual consumption and enterprise optimization behavior.
- GOOGL / Google CloudBeneficiary of public cloud and the LLM ecosystem
- Strengths
- Google is listed among the major vendors to which CIOs are increasing AI spending, and Gemini is already in production use.
- Weaknesses
- Production adoption of LLMs remains at an early stage, with uncertainty around contracts and workload migration.
- Comparison
- Competes with Microsoft and Amazon for AI cloud workloads.
- Risks
- If enterprise AI budgets are reduced or shift toward private deployment, cloud growth realization could be affected.
- CRWVBeneficiary of AI infrastructure
- Strengths
- The report believes hyperscalers and AI platform/consumption companies benefit from increasing enterprise AI workloads and cites CRWV as a positive read-through.
- Weaknesses
- AI infrastructure demand is strong but may be affected by capital expenditures, supply, and customer concentration.
- Comparison
- Like MSFT and other cloud infrastructure-related names, it benefits from AI workload growth.
- Risks
- The pace of AI spending, contract stability, and infrastructure pricing changes may create volatility.
- MDB / SNOW / PLTRBeneficiaries of AI platforms and data architecture
- Strengths
- Modern data architecture is foundational for Agentic AI and moving AI PoCs into production. Data analytics/GenAI remains among the top priorities.
- Weaknesses
- The transition of enterprise AI use cases from PoC to production remains at an early stage, and the pace of monetization requires validation.
- Comparison
- Compared with traditional software, these companies benefit more directly from data, AI workloads, and platformization demand.
- Risks
- If enterprise AI budgets crowd out other software budgets, competition within the overall software portfolio will intensify.
- CRMCustomer applications and cloud communications-related name
- Strengths
- Customer applications rose to the fourth priority, while Salesforce moved down the list of vendors facing spending cuts, potentially indicating improved second-half demand.
- Weaknesses
- Cloud communications priority declined slightly, and AI budget displacement may still affect the traditional SaaS seat-based model.
- Comparison
- Like Figma and other design/UI providers, it is exposed to customer applications and front-end digitization trends.
- Risks
- If AI automation reduces the need for customer service or sales seats, it could affect the seat-based revenue model.
- NOW.US / SERVICENOW INCEnterprise software and AI budget reallocation-related name
- Strengths
- Enterprise automation and digital transformation remain important priorities, and improving overall IT budgets are favorable for software demand.
- Weaknesses
- The report notes that CIOs include ServiceNow among vendors whose spending is being reduced to fund AI investment, indicating potential pressure from AI budget displacement.
- Comparison
- Compared with AI-native platforms and data platforms, traditional enterprise software must do more to demonstrate that AI monetization creates net incremental value.
- Risks
- AI budgets eroding traditional IT software portfolios could lead to demand divergence.
- CRWD / PANW / OKTABeneficiaries of cybersecurity
- Strengths
- Priorities for identity, endpoint, web, and cloud security are rising. AI-driven attacks, agent identity, and expanded API exposure support cybersecurity budgets.
- Weaknesses
- The shift in identity security procurement toward hyperscalers may create competitive pressure for independent vendors.
- Comparison
- CRWD, PANW, and MSFT are viewed as winners in cybersecurity wallet share over the next 12 months; OKTA faces hyperscaler competition in identity security.
- Risks
- Cybersecurity subcategory priorities change quickly, and platform consolidation could alter independent vendor share.
- NET / AKAM / FSLYBeneficiaries of web security and CDN
- Strengths
- Web security has risen to a high priority. AI-driven DDoS attacks, bot traffic, and API risks may drive demand for WAF, DDoS protection, bot protection, and API security.
- Weaknesses
- The report is unwilling to confirm the long-term trend prematurely, describing it instead as a web security spending recovery with sufficient conditions in place.
- Comparison
- In addition to cybersecurity platforms, CDN vendors with web security capabilities may also benefit.
- Risks
- If AI traffic costs and security budgets do not translate into paid demand, revenue elasticity may be below expectations.
- EQIX / DLRBeneficiaries of data centers and communications infrastructure
- Strengths
- The report maintains Buy ratings on EQIX and DLR, believing that enterprise Agentic AI expansion and hybrid/multi-source architectures support data center demand.
- Weaknesses
- The overall communications infrastructure reading is neutral to modestly positive, rather than signaling broad-based strong growth.
- Comparison
- EQIX is listed among the highest-ranked stocks under coverage and is preferred over other communications infrastructure names.
- Risks
- Macro budgets, changes in cloud architecture, and the location of AI workload deployment may affect the pace of demand.
- MNDY / ASAN / BOX / BL / HR SoftwareCompanies under pressure from seat-based and back-office software
- Strengths
- Improving overall IT budgets provide some support, while absolute budget priorities for finance/ERP, productivity, and HR categories improved sequentially.
- Weaknesses
- Expected AI-driven headcount reductions create pressure on seat-based models.
- Comparison
- Compared with AI platforms, data, and cybersecurity, seat-based software is more exposed to AI-driven efficiency gains and budget displacement.
- Risks
- If enterprises use AI to save labor and reduce seat purchases, revenue growth and valuation may come under pressure.
- ACN / CTSHIT services and security implementation-related names
- Strengths
- CIOs are placing greater emphasis on GenAI and security implementation. IT services providers can reshape their growth mix through security, Agentic AI, and large bundled projects.
- Weaknesses
- AI productivity gains are pressuring consulting, testing, and systems integration work. Accenture's recent slowdown in consulting growth is a negative example.
- Comparison
- Service providers with security and AI implementation capabilities are relatively better positioned to offset pressure on traditional services.
- Risks
- If new AI-related projects are insufficient to offset the displacement of traditional consulting, industry growth may remain under pressure.
Key data
- Global NTM IT budget growth expectations+3.3%Up 0.7 percentage points from +2.6% in the March 2026 survey and approximately 0.8 percentage points above the seven-year historical average.
- U.S. NTM IT budget growth expectations+3.0%Up 0.6 percentage points from +2.4% in the March survey.
- EMEA NTM IT budget growth expectations+3.9%Up 0.8 percentage points from +3.1% in March, reaching a relatively high level over the past nine quarters.
- AI share of current IT budgetsApproximately 6.5%CIOs expect AI spending to grow by approximately 10% over the next 12 months, above the overall budget growth rate.
- GenAI funding sources69% from new/additional fundingDown from 73% in the previous quarter, indicating that incremental funding remains the majority source but is weakening at the margin.
- Expected AI-related headcount reductions59% of CIOs expect headcount reductionsMost expect the impact to materialize within the next two years, with the six-to-12-month period representing the largest timeframe.
- Public cloud infrastructure spending expectationsApproximately +6% LTM and +7% NTMPublic cloud consumption is broadly stable or growing, and 38% of CIOs believe consumption growth is higher than last year.
- LLM workload deployment preference53% prefer public cloudAnother 27% prefer hybrid cloud, 17% prefer private cloud, and 3% prefer on-premises deployment.
- LLM contract duration96% exceed one year31% of contracts have terms of two years or longer, indicating that enterprise LLM procurement remains in its early stages but is becoming more contractual.
Impact & implications
For investment implications, AI demand continues to support public cloud, data platforms, AI consumption software, cybersecurity platforms, CDN/web security, and data center infrastructure. At the same time, signs that AI funding is crowding out traditional IT budgets are increasing, potentially weighing on seat-based SaaS, traditional consulting/system integration, HR software, PC refreshes, and spending by certain traditional vendors. Improving enterprise IT budgets are favorable for 2Q results and second-half demand expectations, but AI monetization, budget displacement, and macroeconomic uncertainty in EMEA remain key variables.
Risks
- Although AI funding still primarily comes from new/additional funding, the share declined from 73% to 69%, and nearly half of CIOs believe AI is crowding out other IT budgets.
- AI-related efficiency gains may lead to headcount reductions, creating pressure on seat-based software, HR software, customer service outsourcing, and traditional IT services.
- EMEA macro sentiment remains cautious, with approximately 62% of European respondents believing that macro conditions deteriorated sequentially.
- Public cloud continues to benefit from AI workloads, but some enterprises are increasing their preference for hybrid cloud, private cloud, or on-premises deployment, which may affect cloud consumption elasticity.
- Although the proportion of AI use cases entering production rose to 24%, the share of PoCs remains high, and monetization still requires validation.
- PC refresh intentions declined within hardware budgets, while AI server spending may be classified under other budgets, resulting in an incomplete signal for core IT hardware.
What to watch
- Whether AI spending grows by approximately 10% as expected over the next 12 months and continues to outpace overall IT budget growth.
- Whether the share of new/additional funding within GenAI funding continues to decline and whether AI's crowding-out effect on traditional IT budgets expands.
- Whether the proportion of AI PoCs migrating to production environments continues to rise, particularly in Agentic AI and customer support use cases.
- Whether public cloud infrastructure consumption maintains approximately 7% NTM growth and how LLM workloads migrate among public, hybrid, and private clouds.
- Whether priorities for identity, web, endpoint, and cloud security remain elevated and whether CDN/web security vendors secure visible orders.
- Differences in guidance among cloud, AI platform, cybersecurity, communications infrastructure, and seat-based software companies during the 2Q26 earnings season.
- Whether improving EMEA budgets can offset deteriorating macro sentiment, particularly for IT services and software demand in France and Europe.