Japan's April trade returned to surplus, with crude oil import prices surging while LNG prices remained stable

Overview

This report assesses Japan's April 2026 trade data and changes in energy import prices. In April, Japan's export value rose 14.8% y/y, import value rose 9.7% y/y, and the trade balance swung from a ¥149.5 bn deficit in the same period last year to a ¥301.9 bn surplus. On the energy side, crude oil import unit prices rose sharply in April, while import volumes fell steeply; LNG import prices remained relatively stable, but import volumes declined.

Core views

The key takeaway is that the apparent improvement in Japan's April trade came from strong export value growth and shrinking import volumes, but the energy import mix diverged. Crude oil prices, affected by Middle East tensions, were clearly reflected in April import unit prices, which rose sharply from pre-conflict levels in February; by contrast, LNG import unit prices rose only modestly, suggesting limited price shock transmission. Export volume still grew y/y, but seasonally adjusted m/m momentum weakened, and exports to Asia slowed, indicating that external demand remains uneven.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses Japan's monthly trade data to conduct y/y, m/m, and price-volume decomposition analysis, while comparing actual data with Goldman Sachs forecasts and the Bloomberg consensus. For energy imports, unit import prices are calculated from import value and import volume, and crude oil and natural gas price changes are examined in both yen-denominated and USD-denominated terms.

Methodology notes

• Macroeconomic Trade AnalysisTrade Value, Volume, and Unit Price Decomposition

  Decompose changes in import and export value into volume changes and unit price changes, and use y/y, seasonally adjusted m/m, and forecast deviations to assess trade momentum.

  This approach helps distinguish whether improvement in the trade balance comes from real export volume growth, price effects, or import volume contraction. The report further uses energy import value and volume to back out unit prices for crude oil and LNG, in order to identify the extent of energy price shock transmission after the Middle East conflict.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Crude Oil

  Core driver of Japan's energy import costs

  Strengths

  Rising import unit prices reflect the rapid transmission of global oil prices or geopolitical risk premia, making the price signal clear.

  Weaknesses

  Import volume fell sharply y/y, suggesting that demand, inventories, or procurement timing may have distorted the relationship between price and value.

  Comparison

  Compared with LNG, crude oil saw a more pronounced rise in unit prices in April.

  Risks

  Further deterioration in Middle East tensions, FX volatility, or continued oil price increases could lift Japan's import costs further.

• LNG

  A cushioning factor in Japan's energy import costs

  Strengths

  April import unit prices rose only slightly from February, showing stronger price stability than crude oil.

  Weaknesses

  Import volume fell 20.6% y/y, and the sourcing structure changed materially.

  Comparison

  Compared with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, LNG dollar-denominated prices increased only from US$11.3/mmbtu to US$11.5/mmbtu.

  Risks

  If source shifts persist or global natural gas prices rebound, LNG cost stability may weaken later.

• Japanese Yen

  The pricing and transmission channel for energy import prices and the trade balance

  Strengths

  A trade surplus helps ease apparent pressure on the external balance.

  Weaknesses

  Higher energy import prices in yen terms amplify import cost pressure.

  Comparison

  The report examines crude oil and LNG import unit prices in both yen and USD terms to separate the effects of international prices and exchange rates.

  Risks

  A weaker yen could further increase imported energy costs.

Key data

• April trade balance+¥301.9 bnBetter than Goldman Sachs' forecast of -¥71.5 bn and the Bloomberg consensus of -¥72.5 bn; compared with -¥149.5 bn in the same period last year.
• April export value y/y+14.8%Goldman Sachs forecast: +10.0%; Bloomberg consensus: +9.0%; March: +11.5%.
• April import value y/y+9.7%Goldman Sachs forecast: +9.0%; Bloomberg consensus: +8.5%; March: +10.9%.
• April export volume y/y+3.4%Close to the January-March average of +3.6%, but seasonally adjusted m/m fell 2.9%.
• April import volume y/y-3.4%March: +2.4%.
• Crude oil import unit price¥16,121/barrel, US$101.4/barrelMarch: ¥10,763/barrel and US$68.7/barrel; up 57% and 54%, respectively, from February pre-conflict levels.
• Crude oil import volume y/y-63.7%Occurred alongside the sharp rise in crude oil import unit prices.
• LNG import unit price¥1,829/mmbtu, US$11.5/mmbtuOnly up 4% and 2%, respectively, from February.
• Natural gas import volume4,269 ktDown 20.6% y/y; imports from the Middle East fell 76% y/y to 139 kt, while imports from Russia rose 30% y/y to 456 kt.

Impact & implications

The improvement in Japan's April trade surplus is short term positive for easing external balance pressure, but energy price shocks still warrant caution structurally. The sharp rise in crude oil import prices may push up import costs and affect corporate margins, inflation, and the current account, while stable LNG prices partly cushion energy cost pressure. Export volume growth y/y but weaker seasonally adjusted m/m performance suggests that the contribution from external demand still carries volatility risk.

Risks

• Further increases in crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors could raise Japan's import costs and inflation pressure.
• Seasonally adjusted m/m export volume declined, suggesting that external demand momentum may be weaker than the headline y/y figures imply.
• Slower exports to Asia may weigh on overall export growth in the coming months.
• The sharp decline in energy import volumes may reflect inventory, procurement timing, or demand changes, so the sustainability of the monthly data still needs to be monitored.
• Changes in the natural gas import source mix may introduce supply security and price volatility risks.

What to watch

• Whether crude oil import unit prices in subsequent months remain above pre-conflict levels.
• Whether the sharp decline in crude oil import volumes rebounds or persists in later months.
• Whether LNG import prices remain stable.
• The trend in Japan's export volume on a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, especially performance to Asia.
• Whether the improvement in the trade balance can be sustained amid rising energy prices.
• The transmission of exchange rate movements in the Japanese yen to energy import costs.