Week 18 NEV Orders Down 5% WoW; Xiaomi and Tesla Show Strong Growth Against the Trend

Overview

This report provides Goldman Sachs’ high-frequency tracking of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market for Week 18 of 2026. The key finding is that although overall industry orders declined modestly WoW due to fading momentum from recent new model launches, leading brands like Xiaomi, Tesla, and BYD demonstrated strong growth momentum—particularly Xiaomi, which saw a notable surge in orders ahead of its promotional deadline. Meanwhile, the report notes ongoing price competition at the retail level, with NEV discount rates slightly widening, while upstream battery raw material prices showed volatility without immediate pass-through to cell pricing.

Core views

Demand-side: Combined orders from major NEV makers in Week 18 (April 27–May 3) fell 5% WoW and 10% YoY. This decline was primarily driven by the fading initial-order surge following launches of HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance) models such as the AITO M6 and Shangjie Z7/Z7T. However, structural bright spots emerged: Xiaomi orders jumped 50% WoW, Tesla grew 14%, and BYD rose 8%. Xiaomi’s strong growth was largely attributable to a final sales push ahead of the May 5 expiration of promotional incentives for its refreshed SU7 model. Year-to-date (YTD) cumulative orders show divergent brand resilience amid intensifying competition: NIO posted robust defensive growth (+27% YoY), HIMA declined slightly (-1%), and Tesla fell 7% YoY. Pricing & Competitive Landscape: Price competition remains intense at the retail level. As of May 2, the average NEV dealer discount rate stood at 7.43%, up from 7.20% on April 26; BYD maintained a stable average discount of 4.36%. In contrast, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle discounts narrowed slightly to 19.64% from 19.68% the prior week, suggesting stabilization or minor discount pullback in the ICE segment under market pressure. Macro Sales Context: According to CPCA data, passenger vehicle retail sales from April 1–26 totaled 1.004 million units, down 24% YoY; NEV retail sales reached 614,000 units, down only 11% YoY. Consequently, NEV retail penetration jumped to 61.2% in the first four weeks of April from 47.3% in March, underscoring accelerating substitution of ICE vehicles by NEVs. Upstream Costs: Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose 3.8% WoW to RMB 177,000/ton, but prices for LFP and NCM prismatic cells remained flat WoW—indicating midstream battery makers are currently absorbing raw material cost fluctuations without passing them on to automakers.

Analysis framework

This report follows a standard high-frequency data-tracking framework, using 'weekly order volume'—a leading indicator—to forecast monthly sales trends rather than relying on lagging official wholesale/retail data. The analytical logic adheres to the principle of 'assessing trends at the aggregate level and identifying alpha at the brand level': first evaluating overall industry order trends (WoW/YoY) to gauge cyclical inflection points, then drilling down into performance of leading brands (e.g., Xiaomi, Tesla, BYD) to uncover sources of outperformance. Additionally, the report cross-validates demand sustainability and margin outlook by examining two key dimensions: 'retail discount rates' (demand-side price elasticity) and 'upstream battery prices' (supply-side cost pressure).

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Analyzing market performance by separating volume (order quantity) and price (discount rate) dimensions.

  The report examines not just how many vehicles were sold (volume), but also at what effective price (price/discount). This approach helps distinguish whether sales growth stems from genuine demand expansion or merely aggressive discounting, thereby assessing the quality of growth.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Price Transmission

  Tracking price transmission mechanisms from upstream raw materials (lithium carbonate) through midstream manufacturing (cells) to downstream OEMs (orders/discounts).

  By contrasting rising lithium carbonate prices with stable cell prices, the report analyzes where cost pressures are being absorbed in the supply chain. This helps assess whether upstream price hikes have already eroded midstream battery margins or may eventually be passed on to automakers, impacting their gross margins.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Xiaomi Group

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Successful promotional strategy for SU7 refresh drove 50% WoW order growth, demonstrating exceptional short-term marketing conversion capability.

  Comparison

  Highest WoW growth among major brands, far exceeding industry average.

  Risks

  Order sustainability post-promotion remains to be seen.

• Tesla

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  14% WoW order growth; relatively stable YTD performance reflects enduring brand strength.

  Comparison

  Second-highest growth after Xiaomi, outperforming most legacy automakers and EV startups.

• BYD

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  8% WoW order growth with significant scale advantages; maintains low discount rate (4.36%).

  Comparison

  Achieves positive growth while keeping discounts low, suggesting potentially superior profitability versus peers.

• NIO

  Neutral/Beneficiary

  Strengths

  27% YTD order growth demonstrates strong defensive positioning; ONVO L90 refresh deliveries imminent.

  Comparison

  Leads YTD growth among major EV startups.

• Li Auto

  Watch

  Strengths

  L9 refresh launch scheduled for May 15 may trigger a new order pulse.

  Comparison

  Impact of new model on sales volume remains to be observed.

Key data

• Week 18 NEV Order Change (WoW)-5%Driven by fading HIMA launch momentum, but decline smaller than expected
• Week 18 NEV Order Change (YoY)-10%High base effect from last year
• Xiaomi Auto Order Growth (WoW)+50%Rush purchases ahead of SU7 refresh promo deadline
• Tesla Order Growth (WoW)+14%Strong performance
• BYD Order Growth (WoW)+8%Steady growth
• NEV Retail Penetration (Apr 1–26)61.2%Significant increase from March’s 47.3%
• Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate PriceRMB 177,000/tonUp 3.8% WoW
• Average NEV Dealer Discount Rate7.43%Widened from 7.20% the prior week

Impact & implications

While total orders dipped slightly WoW, the counter-trend growth of leading brands like Xiaomi and Tesla suggests underlying demand remains intact and is concentrating toward brands with strong product cycles or brand equity. The rapid rebound in NEV penetration reaffirms the irreversible trend toward electrification. Stable cell prices benefit automakers’ cost control, though the rebound in lithium carbonate prices warrants caution regarding potential future cost pass-through. Investors should closely monitor upcoming model launches (e.g., from NIO, Li Auto, BYD) to see if they can replicate Xiaomi’s order surge.

Risks

• Ongoing price wars continue to pressure automaker margins.
• Sustained rebound in upstream raw material prices could compress profits across battery and OEM segments.
• New model launches may underperform expectations or face delivery delays.

What to watch

• NIO ONVO L90 refresh deliveries starting May 9.
• Order feedback following Li Auto’s L9 refresh and NIO’s ONVO L80 launch on May 15.
• Launch updates for BYD Tang Plus and NIO ES9 later in May.
• Full May monthly sales data from automakers in early June.