March 70-city primary home price decline in China narrowed, with first-tier cities stabilizing first

Overview

This report tracks China’s NBS 70-city housing data and Goldman Sachs high-frequency real estate indicators. The key conclusion is that the pace of decline in primary home prices in March has eased slightly, with marginal improvement in first-tier cities, but nationwide new-home prices are still down year-over-year and second- and third-tier cities remain in a downtrend, while the secondary market has experienced larger price adjustments.

Core views

The report argues that there are signs of marginal stabilization in China’s primary housing market, but this is not yet enough to confirm a full reversal in the broader real estate cycle. First-tier cities, especially Shenzhen, led month-on-month improvement, while Shanghai and Hangzhou still recorded year-over-year gains; however, the nationwide 70-city weighted new-home year-over-year decline widened from 3.3% in February to 3.5% in March, while second- and third-tier cities continued to decline. The secondary housing market is weaker, with a 5% to 15% drop over the past year, indicating that residential wealth expectations and pressure in the existing-home segment remain key constraints on real estate recovery.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses NBS 70-city new home price data, Goldman Sachs seasonally adjusted MoM annualized estimates, population-weighted 70-city average prices, city-tier classification, and high-frequency indicators such as transaction volume of 30 cities and months of inventory in major cities, comparing changes across primary and secondary markets, across city tiers, and across key cities.

Methodology notes

• Real estate macro tracking70-city primary home price weighted index

  Population-weighted average

  Goldman Sachs uses a population-weighted approach to measure 70-city primary home price changes, so the results may differ from simple averages.

• Time-series processingSeasonally adjusted MoM annualized

  mom annualized, seasonally adjusted

  Month-on-month changes in the report are measured on a Goldman Sachs seasonally adjusted annualized basis to track short-term price momentum.

• Market stratificationNBS city-tier classification

  First-tier, second-tier, third-tier cities

  The report uses NBS-defined tiers to split 70 cities into levels for comparing price performance across city grades.

• Market scopeSeparation of primary and secondary markets

  primary market versus secondary market

  NBS 70-city data mainly reflect primary market transaction prices; the report emphasizes that secondary market data come from NBS and third-party platforms and show a larger decline over the past year.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China primary housing market

  Core tracking target

  Strengths

  The month-on-month annualized price decline in 70-city primary homes narrowed slightly in March, with first-tier cities turning positive.

  Weaknesses

  The nationwide year-over-year decline continued to widen, with second- and third-tier cities still in a downtrend.

  Comparison

  Primary housing performed better than secondary housing, but has not formed a comprehensive uptrend.

  Risks

  If transaction volume does not continue to improve, the price stabilization may not be sustained.

• China secondary housing market

  Important reference market

  Strengths

  Part of the data provide additional insight into real market pressure beyond the NBS primary-market framework.

  Weaknesses

  Price declines of about 5% to 15% over the past year are significantly weaker than in the primary market.

  Comparison

  Secondary housing more clearly reflects supply overhang and household expectation pressures than new housing.

  Risks

  Continued declines in secondary homes could dampen primary-home pricing and household balance-sheet confidence.

• First-tier city real estate

  Source of marginal improvement

  Strengths

  Prices rose 0.4% month-on-month annualized in March, with Shenzhen being particularly strong.

  Weaknesses

  Improvement is concentrated in a limited number of cities, and persistence remains unproven.

  Comparison

  First-tier cities are clearly stronger than second- and third-tier cities.

  Risks

  Without sufficient policy or transaction support, first-tier improvements could be temporary.

• Second- and third-tier city real estate

  Main pressure area

  Strengths

  Third-tier declines narrowed slightly, and the inventory-month decline was mainly driven by second-tier cities.

  Weaknesses

  Primary home prices in second- and third-tier cities are still clearly falling.

  Comparison

  Lower-tier cities are recovering more slowly than first-tier cities.

  Risks

  High inventories combined with weaker population and income expectations may extend the adjustment cycle.

Key data

• 70-city primary home price MoM annualized-4.1%March 2026, seasonally adjusted by Goldman Sachs; -4.3% in February.
• 70-city primary home price YoY-3.5%March 2026; -3.3% in February, with year-over-year declines widening.
• First-tier city primary home price MoM annualized+0.4%March 2026; first increase since April 2025, -0.8% in February.
• Shenzhen primary home price MoM annualized+5.3%March 2026; strongest MoM improvement among first-tier cities, -0.7% in February.
• Second-tier city primary home price MoM annualized-4.7%March 2026; -4.5% in February.
• Third-tier city primary home price MoM annualized-5.2%March 2026; -5.4% in February, a modest narrowing.
• Secondary home price change over the past yearabout -5% to -15%Based on NBS and some third-party platform data, indicating stronger pressure in the secondary market.
• Months of inventory in major cities29.3 monthsEarly April 2026, down from 29.9 months in March, mainly driven by second-tier cities.

Impact & implications

For the real estate chain and macro demand, the report implies that the pace of house-price declines may be easing at the margin, but the market has not yet escaped divergence and existing-home pressure. Price improvement in first-tier cities may help stabilize expectations, yet second- and third-tier cities are still weakening and secondary-market declines are larger, meaning wealth effects, developer cash collections, and local land-fiscal repair may still be constrained.

Risks

• The year-over-year decline of 70-city primary home prices is still widening, so trend recovery is not yet confirmed.
• Secondary home prices have fallen 5% to 15% over the past year, which could continue to weigh on household purchase expectations.
• Second- and third-tier cities remain in a downtrend, and city-level divergence may intensify.
• Months of inventory are still close to 30 months, so the absorption pressure remains elevated.
• Primary home transaction volume is only broadly in line with last year, and if it weakens further, the price rebound may not persist.

What to watch

• Whether the NBS 70-city primary home price MoM annualized decline continues to narrow or turn positive.
• Whether price improvements in first-tier cities, especially Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, spread to more cities.
• Whether year-over-year price declines in second- and third-tier cities show clearer convergence.
• Whether secondary home price indices and third-party platform data continue to ease.
• How transaction volume in 30 cities compares with year-ago levels.
• Whether months of inventory in major cities continue to decline from above 29 months.