Nomura forecasts the USD/CNY fixing at 6.7910

Overview

This is an Asia FX strategy brief from Nomura Global Markets Research on the USD/CNY fixing model forecast. The report is dated 2026-06-24, and its core conclusion is that the model forecasts the USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7910, with pip comparisons versus the previous fixing and the previous official spot close.

Core views

The report indicates that the model-implied USD/CNY fixing forecast is 6.7910, below the previous fixing of 6.8171, implying a stronger RMB central parity relative to the previous fixing. If the counter-cyclical factor is included, the model forecast is 6.8025, still below the previous fixing, but the decline narrows to 146 pips.

Analysis framework

The report uses a USD/CNY fix model to generate a point forecast and compares the result with the previous official fixing and the previous official spot close, while also presenting an alternative scenario including the counter-cyclical factor. The appendix's fixed income research methodology notes that relevant strategy views may incorporate fundamentals, quantitative price changes, as well as technical factors such as regulation, risk appetite, rating actions, primary market activity, and supply and demand.

Methodology notes

• FX modelUSD/CNY fix model

  RMB central parity model forecast

  The model outputs a USD/CNY fixing forecast of 6.7910 and compares the pip difference versus the previous fixing of 6.8171 and the previous official spot close.

• Policy factor scenariocounter-cyclical factor

  Counter-cyclical factor scenario

  The report provides a model forecast of 6.8025 after adding the counter-cyclical factor, 146 pips below the previous fixing, to observe the impact of policy adjustment factors on the central parity rate.

• Strategy research methodologyFixed Income Strategists methodology

  Combination of fundamentals, quantitative, and technical factors

  The appendix states that trade recommendations or market views may reference macro or micro fundamentals, quantitative analysis of price movements, as well as factors such as regulatory changes, market risk appetite, rating actions, primary market activity, and supply and demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Core covered asset and the forecast target for the official USD/RMB fixing.

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear level of 6.7910 and discloses the pip differences relative to the previous fixing and the previous official spot close.

  Weaknesses

  The extracted content does not include full model inputs, parameters, or event calendar details.

  Comparison

  6.7910 is 261 pips below the previous fixing of 6.8171; after adding the counter-cyclical factor, it is 6.8025, 146 pips below the previous fixing.

  Risks

  Policy adjustments, market risk appetite, USD moves, liquidity, and changes in supply and demand may cause the actual fixing to deviate from the model forecast.

Key data

• Model forecast6.7910261 pips below the previous fixing of 6.8171; 45 pips above the previous official spot close.
• Model forecast including the counter-cyclical factor6.8025146 pips below the previous fixing.
• Previous fixing6.8171The previous official fixing level used for comparison in the report.
• Report completion time2026-06-24 00:17 UTCThe chart caption shows Production Complete.
• Event calendarFig.4: Calendar of eventsThe table retains only the title and sources Bloomberg and Nomura, without specific event details.

Impact & implications

If the actual fixing comes close to 6.7910, it would imply a stronger RMB central parity relative to the previous fixing; if it is closer to 6.8025, it would suggest a smaller downward adjustment under the counter-cyclical factor scenario. As the report does not provide specific trading recommendations or complete model parameters, the result is more suitable as a short-term reference for observing the RMB central parity rather than a standalone basis for investment decisions.

Risks

• The report states that models, forecasts, and historical simulations do not guarantee future performance, and actual market outcomes may deviate from the forecast.
• The counter-cyclical factor may change the model-implied fixing level, and the report does not disclose all model inputs and parameters.
• Much of the visible main text in this extract consists of compliance disclosures, with limited specific event calendar and model detail.
• The report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security or personalized investment advice.

What to watch

• Whether the next official USD/CNY fixing is close to the scenario values of 6.7910 or 6.8025.
• Changes in the deviation between the previous official spot close and the central parity rate.
• RMB policy signals, use of the counter-cyclical factor, the US dollar index, and Asia FX risk appetite.
• Macro events in the Bloomberg/Nomura event calendar that may affect the RMB central parity rate.