Morgan Stanley raises China humanoid robot 2026 shipment forecast; top picks are Leaderdrive, Hengli Hydraulic, and Shuanghuan

Overview

This report focuses on China’s industrial humanoid robot supply chain. Its core view is that commercial validation, policy support, and supply chain feedback are jointly driving an upward revision to 2026 shipment expectations. Morgan Stanley expects China’s humanoid robot market to remain in the early stage of commercialization, but deployment is accelerating starting from logistics, factories, commercial services, government, and SOE scenarios. The report also updates the China humanoid robot value chain list and highlights Leaderdrive, Hengli Hydraulic, and Shuanghuan as key recommendations.

Core views

First, the industry is shifting from the demonstration stage to real commercial scenarios, with integrators, enterprise users, and government departments already pushing commercial validation in 1H26. Second, policy catalysts have strengthened significantly, with MIIT and SASAC requiring local governments and central SOEs to identify real operating sites and convert them into training environments. Third, supply chain feedback is positive, with core component companies beginning to expand capacity and seeing higher revenue contributions. Fourth, the 2026 shipment mix is still dominated by semi-size humanoid robots, but as adoption of full-size manipulative robots increases, the full-size share is expected to rise to about 50% in 2027 and about 70% in 2028. Fifth, Leaderdrive is viewed as a major beneficiary due to its harmonic reducer share, customer coverage, and capacity expansion.

Analysis framework

The report combines industry research, policy tracking, order and capacity data, shipment and ASP assumptions, value chain screening, and DCF valuation. At the industry level, it forecasts China’s humanoid robot shipments, ASP, and market size based on external commercial sales criteria; at the company level, it focuses on Leaderdrive’s market share in harmonic reducers, revenue contribution, margin resilience, and long-term cash flow value.

Methodology notes

• Market ForecastChina Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast

  Commercial sales basis

  The shipment forecast includes only humanoid robots sold externally, excluding prototypes, pre-order trials, or internal R&D use; however, the component TAM model considers larger production volume because component suppliers may benefit regardless of end use.

• Product DefinitionHumanoid Robot Sample Definition

  Exclude small-sized or non-mobile robots

  The report excludes small humanoid robots under 1 meter tall or without arms, and also excludes humanoid robots without mobility, to maintain consistency in the commercialization shipment criteria.

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Leaderdrive long-term cash flow discounting

  Leaderdrive is valued using DCF, based on 2026-2050e cash flows, 11% WACC, and a 4% terminal growth rate, resulting in a target price of Rmb464.

• Scenario AnalysisRisk Reward

  Bull, base, and bear cases

  Leaderdrive’s base-case target price is Rmb464, the bull-case Rmb908 reflects higher global humanoid robot sales and margin improvement, and the bear-case Rmb120 reflects weak sales, intensifying competition, and declining margins.

• Stock Pool ScreeningChina Humanoid Value Chain

  China humanoid robot value chain list

  The list contains 45 stocks, including 3 brain-related names, 32 body component names, and 10 integrators; inclusion criteria include Morgan Stanley-covered companies, as well as non-covered companies that have announced cooperation with key humanoid robot companies or already have relevant revenue scale.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Leaderdrive / 688017.SS

  Core recommended name, mainly benefiting from growth in humanoid robot harmonic reducer demand.

  Strengths

  Holds a leading share among domestic humanoid robot integrators, with customers including UBTECH and Galbot; rapid capacity expansion, with humanoid robot revenue contribution expected to reach 35%/50% in 2026/27e; scale expansion helps offset ASP declines and support margins.

  Weaknesses

  Highly dependent on the pace of humanoid robot commercialization, penetration of harmonic reducer solutions, and supply chain positioning with top customers.

  Comparison

  The report’s 2026/27e revenue forecasts are 7%/12% above Visible Alpha consensus, and the target price of Rmb464 is 72% above the previous level.

  Risks

  Commercialization delays, insufficient ROI, lower-than-expected harmonic reducer penetration, exclusion from top U.S. integrator supply chains, intensified competition, and pricing pressure.

• Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd

  Key supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, and may expand into motors and linear actuator components.

  Strengths

  Mexico capacity target by year-end supports about 100k robots; beyond humanoid robot components, it also has a business foundation in hydraulics and construction machinery.

  Weaknesses

  Humanoid robot contribution is still in the early stage, while cyclical businesses such as traditional excavators and pumps/valves may still affect valuation and earnings.

  Comparison

  The report notes that its target price is derived from 35x 2026e P/E for the core business plus DCF for humanoid robot components, resulting in Rmb133.

  Risks

  Sharp declines in China excavator and pump/valve demand, failure to expand share in non-excavator components, and slower-than-expected humanoid robot penetration.

• Shuanghuan

  Supplier related to precision gears and reducers, listed as one of Morgan Stanley’s preferred China humanoid robot value chain names.

  Strengths

  Supplies gears for reducer production and has been developing new reducers with a leading U.S. humanoid robot integrator for more than 2 years; its precision gear capabilities may be transferred to humanoid robot components.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide clear humanoid robot revenue scale or order confirmation, and the investment thesis still depends on technology conversion and customer validation.

  Comparison

  Compared with integrators, Shuanghuan belongs to the body component segment, which the report believes has been relatively more resilient YTD.

  Risks

  Failed customer validation, slower-than-expected mass production, price competition, and changes in technology routes.

• Kedali

  Newly added to the China humanoid robot value chain list, involved in harmonic reducers and joint modules.

  Strengths

  Management reiterated confidence during the 1Q26 earnings call in securing orders from top humanoid robot integrators, with harmonic reducer orders progressing the fastest.

  Weaknesses

  The report mainly discloses order confidence and product progress, but has not yet provided clear mass-production revenue contribution.

  Comparison

  Compared with the removed Guomao, Xusheng, and Zhongjian, Kedali is viewed as more deserving of inclusion due to stronger progress in humanoid robot business.

  Risks

  Orders falling short of expectations, delayed product validation, customer concentration, and technology route risks.

• Lens

  Newly added to the China humanoid robot value chain list, supplying joint modules, structural parts, head modules, etc.

  Strengths

  Supplies joint modules and structural parts to domestic customers, while overseas opportunities are mainly in head modules and structural parts; some customer projects are in the validation stage.

  Weaknesses

  Currently still focused on validation and opportunity descriptions, lacking clear shipment and revenue data.

  Comparison

  Lens’s inclusion reflects the value chain expanding from single components to modules and structural parts.

  Risks

  Validation failure, weaker-than-expected overseas customer expansion, and delayed commercialization timelines.

• China humanoid robot value chain

  Industry theme and multi-stock investment basket, covering brain, body components, and integrators.

  Strengths

  Policy support, SOE orders, validation in logistics and factory scenarios, capacity expansion, and IPO events together form catalysts.

  Weaknesses

  The industry is still in the early stage of commercialization, and current shipments still largely come from entertainment, data collection, government projects, and interactive commercial services.

  Comparison

  The YTD 2026 value chain index is down 11.3%, close to MSCI China’s 12.1% decline, but internal divergence is clear, with body components outperforming integrators and brain-related companies.

  Risks

  Uncertain commercial ROI, changing product definitions and application scenarios, weaker-than-expected policy implementation, ASP volatility, and intensifying competition.

Key data

• China 2026 humanoid robot shipment forecast50k unitsRaised from the previous 28k units, reflecting improved commercialization, policy, and supply chain feedback.
• China 2030e humanoid robot shipment forecast446k unitsImplies about 106% CAGR in 2025-2030e.
• China humanoid robot market sizeabout US$2bn in 2026e; about US$15bn in 2030eBased on revised shipment and ASP forecasts.
• Full-size humanoid robot shipment shareabout 30% in 2026e; about 50% in 2027e; about 70% in 2028eAs validation progresses and manipulative applications increase, the product mix is expected to gradually shift toward full-size robots.
• 2026 industry blended ASPdown 15% YoYExpected to rise 5%/2% in 2027/2028, mainly due to the increasing share of full-size robots.
• Policy deployment target10,000-unit-level deployment capability, more than 100 high-value application scenariosMIIT and SASAC aim to promote validation of representative applications in real operating environments by the end of 2026.
• State Grid orderRmb6.8bn, about US$940mnProcurement of about 500 humanoid robots, 3k dual-arm robots, and 5k quadruped robots.
• Leaderdrive capacityabout 70k/month, year-end target of 100-120k/monthUp from 50k/month in 1Q26, reflecting preparation for humanoid robot demand.
• Leaderdrive humanoid robot revenue contributionabout 35% in 2026e; about 50% in 2027eThe report expects its humanoid robot-related sales to scale up rapidly.
• Leaderdrive market share assumption40% in 2026; 25% long termRefers to the assumed global humanoid robot harmonic reducer market share.
• Leaderdrive target priceRmb464Raised 72% from the prior level, with Overweight reiterated.
• Leaderdrive scenario valuationbull case Rmb908; base case Rmb464; bear case Rmb120Correspond respectively to stronger global sales and margins, base-case cash flows, and low sales with competitive pressure.
• Leaderdrive earnings forecast revision2026/27e revenue raised 16%/35%; EPS raised 19%/36%Reflects humanoid robot industry growth and the company’s market share advantages.
• Value chain list adjustmentAdded Kedali and Lens; removed Guomao, Xusheng, and ZhongjianThe list is dynamically updated with industry developments.
• YTD 2026 sector performanceChina humanoid robot value chain index down 11.3%MSCI China was down 12.1% over the same period; body component suppliers were down 8.7%, integrators down 14.9%, and brain-related companies down 27.2%.

Impact & implications

The investment implication conveyed by the report is that China’s humanoid robot supply chain may be moving from thematic expectations into a stage driven by orders, capacity, and commercial validation. In the short term, 3Q26 event catalysts and policy validation may support sector sentiment; over the medium to long term, it will depend on real commercial ROI, full-size robot adoption, penetration of core components, and price competition. Component companies, especially suppliers of harmonic reducers, roller screws, linear actuators, joint modules, and precision gears, may show revenue elasticity earlier than integrators.

Risks

• Humanoid robot mass production and commercialization may progress more slowly than expected, or insufficient commercial ROI may delay enterprise customer adoption.
• Penetration of harmonic reducers in humanoid robots may be lower than expected, or they may no longer remain the mainstream technology solution in the future.
• Core suppliers may lose market share, or fail to enter the supply chains of leading U.S. and global integrators.
• Intensifying competition may lead to larger ASP declines, rising pricing pressure, and margin erosion.
• Policy pilots, SOE orders, and local scenario implementation may fall short of expectations, lengthening the demand validation cycle.
• Cyclical downturns in related businesses such as traditional industrial robots, construction machinery, excavators, and pumps/valves may drag on the overall earnings of some component companies.

What to watch

• Potential Optimus Gen3 launch and progress of humanoid robot integrator IPOs in 3Q26.
• New product launches and order signals during WAIC in July, WRC in August, and the World Humanoid Robot Games.
• The results of MIIT and SASAC’s evaluation of application case progress in November 2026.
• Whether projects that started validation in 1H26 can convert into real commercial adoption in 2H26.
• The pace of deployment expansion in real-world scenarios such as State Grid, SF Express, China Post, and Robotera.
• Capacity, shipments, and revenue delivery of suppliers such as Leaderdrive, Hengli Hydraulic, Xinje, Leadshine, and Huayan.
• Whether the share of full-size humanoid robots rises as expected to about 50% in 2027 and about 70% in 2028.