Transit through Hormuz has not meaningfully recovered; tanker freight rates remain elevated; container throughput and some route freight rates remain resilient

Overview

This report is UBS China Industrials Shipping Supply Chain Weekly, Week 15, using UBS Evidence Lab, the Ministry of Transport, and third-party data to track the latest trade flow and freight rate changes across shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transport. Core themes include the recovery of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker earnings, container throughput and freight rates, updates related to alternative energy sources, and global marine destination, fleet, trade, and disruption monitoring data.

Core views

The report argues that there has still been no meaningful recovery in the Strait of Hormuz in the four days after the conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran, with transit volumes still far below normal pre-conflict levels, continuing to support elevated spot VLCC earnings. At the same time, container throughput at Chinese ports remains solid, the SCFI has edged higher overall, but route-level divergence is pronounced. On crude trade flows, loadings at Yanbu have rebounded, US crude exports are expected to exceed 5 million barrels per day in April, and the number of westbound crude tankers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope is significantly above pre-conflict levels.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency data monitoring framework, combining AIS vessel tracks, port throughput, freight rate indices, third-party shipping data, and trade flow estimates to observe the impact of geopolitical events on maritime corridors, tanker earnings, container freight rates, and port activity.

Methodology notes

• high-frequency data monitoringUBS Evidence Lab Global Maritime Destination Monitor

  AIS vessel location and destination monitoring

  Uses hourly AIS data to monitor more than 35,200 commercial maritime vessels worldwide, and combines IMO numbers, vessel type, size, and deadweight tonnage characteristics to estimate the number of ships and total cargo tonnage passing through ports and regions.

• high-frequency data monitoringUBS Evidence Lab Global Maritime Fleet Monitor

  global fleet monitoring

  Covers commercial vessels such as tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships, tracking the activity of different vessel types across key global regions and ports through AIS and vessel characteristic data.

• trade flow monitoringUBS Evidence Lab Global Maritime Trade Monitor

  global maritime trade and cargo volume estimation

  Based on AIS data, uses cleaning algorithms, benchmark validation, and statistical methods, together with vessel draft data, to estimate cargo volumes and trade flows through regions, ports, and key chokepoints.

• disruption monitoringDaily Maritime Trade Disruption Monitor

  maritime disruption monitoring at key chokepoints

  Monitors, via hourly AIS data, changes in the number and deadweight tonnage of commercial vessels passing through key global chokepoints to identify the impact of geopolitical events or route disruptions on trade flows.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• VLCC tankers and tanker shipping

  Directly affected by constrained transit through Hormuz and the reallocation of crude trade flows

  Strengths

  Spot TCE remains elevated, Middle East to China routes have risen markedly versus pre-conflict levels; second-hand VLCC prices exceed newbuild prices, improving shipbuilding order demand.

  Weaknesses

  Earnings diverge by route, with Gulf of Mexico and West Africa to China routes still negative versus pre-conflict levels.

  Comparison

  VLCC TCE from the Middle East to China is +104% versus pre-conflict, clearly stronger than Gulf of Mexico to China at -10% and West Africa to China at -34%.

  Risks

  If transit through Hormuz recovers quickly or geopolitical risks ease, freight rates and the risk premium may fall.

• container shipping and ports

  Affected by port throughput, SCFI freight rates, and Red Sea rerouting

  Strengths

  Container throughput at key Chinese ports grew 10% year over year, and the SCFI rose 2% week over week and 36% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  Import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles remain down year over year, and Shanghai to Northern Europe fell 6% week over week.

  Comparison

  Trans-Pacific routes rose 5-8% week over week, outperforming Shanghai to Northern Europe.

  Risks

  Weakening global trade demand, changes in rerouting, or capacity reallocation may weigh on freight rates.

• shipbuilding industry chain

  Influenced by transmission from VLCC profitability, second-hand vessel prices, and newbuild demand

  Strengths

  Rising VLCC earnings push second-hand vessel prices above newbuild prices and improve newbuild demand and order book conditions.

  Weaknesses

  Demand is highly dependent on the persistence of tanker profitability and shipowners' capital expenditure appetite.

  Comparison

  The report notes that newbuild prices have recovered since mid-March, consistent with stronger VLCC newbuild demand.

  Risks

  If tanker freight rates fall or macro investment slows, shipbuilding orders and price recovery may decelerate.

• crude oil and energy transport chain

  Affected by Middle East loadings, US and Brazil supply, and Cape of Good Hope rerouting

  Strengths

  Yanbu loadings have recovered to above 5 million barrels per day, US crude exports are expected to exceed 5 million barrels per day in April, and alternative trade flows are active.

  Weaknesses

  Pipeline attacks and geopolitical disruptions increase transport uncertainty.

  Comparison

  Over the past two weeks, the daily number of westbound crude tankers via the Cape of Good Hope has been 50% higher than before the conflict.

  Risks

  Repricing of the energy supply chain, longer voyage distances, and rising insurance costs may affect trade costs.

Key data

• Strait of Hormuz transit volume12 vessels per day from April 8 to 11, 2026Above the roughly 8 vessels per day seen for most of March, but still about 90% below the roughly 125 vessels per day before the conflict.
• Vessels leaving the Gulf after the ceasefire10 bulk carriers, 4 VLCCs, 4 LNGCsClarksons estimate, with the observation window from April 8 to 11, 2026.
• VLCC spot earningsUS$444k/113k/125k per dayApril 9 TCEs for routes from the Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and West Africa to China; versus pre-conflict levels of +104%/-10%/-34%, respectively.
• One-year VLCC time charter rateUS$129k per dayUnchanged from last week.
• Container throughput at key Chinese portsStable week over week, +10% year over yearThe year-over-year growth rate in March was about 6% previously.
• Estimated import volume at the Port of Los Angeles-2% year over year in week 16Down 14% year over year in week 15.
• Overall SCFI freight rate+2% week over week, +36% year over yearShanghai to Northern Europe was -6% week over week, while trans-Pacific routes were +5-8% week over week.
• Freight rate change versus end-Februaryabout +42%/+9%/+31-37%Corresponds to the increase in freight rates for the main routes mentioned in the report relative to the end of February.
• Container ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope+10-11% year over year recentlyReflects the continued impact of Red Sea rerouting on capacity and route structure.
• Crude loadings at Yanbu port>5 million barrels per dayRose from below 4 million barrels per day in mid-March to above 5 million barrels per day over the past week.
• US crude export forecastAbove 5 million barrels per day in April 2026The report says recent booking activity is strong, and Brazil is also another crude source.
• Westbound crude tankers via the Cape of Good Hope+50% over the past two weeks versus before the conflictDaily average is significantly higher than pre-conflict levels.

Impact & implications

The absence of a recovery in Hormuz transit means that the Middle East shipping risk premium remains in place, which may continue to support spot earnings and second-hand vessel prices in some tanker segments, while improving expectations for shipbuilding orders and newbuild prices. On the container side, Chinese port throughput and the SCFI show that demand and freight rates remain resilient, but the pullback in routes such as Shanghai to Northern Europe points to regional divergence. The rerouting of crude trade flows around the Cape of Good Hope and the increase in alternative loading sources indicate that the energy transport chain is responding to geopolitical disruptions through route reallocation and source substitution.

Risks

• China's industrial sector faces the risk of macro-level investment contraction; if the economy remains weak, demand for industrial goods or import/export volumes may shrink.
• If tax incentives such as those for high-tech enterprises are withdrawn, it may affect the profitability of related companies.
• Intensifying competition from domestic and foreign companies could lead to market share losses.
• Geopolitical conflicts, restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea rerouting, and pipeline attacks may continue to disrupt shipping and energy transport.
• If tensions ease or routes normalize, the upside support for tanker freight rates, second-hand vessel prices, and shipbuilding demand may weaken.

What to watch

• Whether average daily transit through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover from about 12 vessels and approaches the pre-conflict level of roughly 125 vessels per day.
• Whether VLCC TCEs on Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and West Africa to China routes, as well as one-year time charter rates, remain elevated.
• Whether year-over-year growth in container throughput at key Chinese ports can remain above the roughly 6% level seen in March.
• Whether divergence in overall SCFI, Shanghai to Northern Europe, and trans-Pacific freight rates widens.
• Whether the number of container ships and crude tankers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope declines, indicating easing disruption in the Red Sea and Middle East shipping lanes.
• The extent to which Yanbu crude loadings, US crude exports, and Brazil crude supply serve as substitute sources in global crude trade flows.