China's power demand growth slowed in June, but structural demand remains supported by high-tech manufacturing, charging services, and AIDC

Overview

This report summarizes China's power demand and capacity installation data for June 2026. The core conclusion is that power demand in the first half still maintained mid-single-digit growth, but June's single-month growth slowed significantly; cooler weather suppressed residential power consumption, and the tertiary sector also cooled versus May. However, electricity consumption related to high-tech and equipment manufacturing, charging services, IT services, and AIDC continued to show structural resilience. On the supply side, the share of wind and solar generation continued to rise, but new capacity additions declined year over year due to the high base in the same period of 2025.

Core views

The report's core views include: first, China's power demand growth slowed in June, with single-month YoY growth falling to 3.7% from 6.9% in May. Second, cumulative power demand in the first half grew 5.3% YoY, slightly down from 5.7% in 5M26, but still showing that overall demand has not stalled. Third, industrial structure divergence is clear: cumulative growth in the secondary sector was stable at 5.1%, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing up 9.8% YoY; cumulative growth in the tertiary sector was 8.0%, with charging services and IT services (including AIDC) up 56.9% and 44.0%, respectively. Fourth, the year-over-year slowdown in renewable capacity additions mainly reflects a high base rather than pure demand deterioration; in June, new solar and wind capacity additions were 12.5GW and 13.6GW, respectively.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly power data tracking approach, comparing 1H26, 5M26, 4M26, and the same period in 2025, and analyzes demand-side industrial electricity use, residential electricity use, charging services, and IT/AIDC electricity use, as well as supply-side power generation, generation mix, utilization hours, and new capacity additions.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly trackingPower demand YoY growth analysis

  Observe changes in power demand growth by industry segment

  By comparing cumulative and single-month year-over-year growth, assess marginal changes in power demand and break down contributions from the primary sector, secondary sector, tertiary sector, and residential electricity consumption.

• Structural demand analysisObservation of high-growth electricity-consuming subsectors

  Identify high-growth electricity consumption scenarios such as charging services, IT services, and AIDC

  When aggregate growth slows, continue to observe whether high-tech manufacturing, charging services, and data-center-related demand provide structural support.

• Supply and capacity analysisGeneration mix and new capacity tracking

  Assess changes in power supply by combining generation volume, wind and solar share, utilization hours, and new capacity additions

  The report also tracks installation and generation performance for solar, wind, thermal power, and others to distinguish the effects of slowing demand, a high installation base, and changes in the power-source mix.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China electric utilities sector

  Directly related

  Strengths

  Power demand in 1H26 still grew 5.3% YoY, and the industry view table shows an Asia Pacific Attractive Industry View.

  Weaknesses

  June single-month demand growth fell to 3.7%, while residential electricity consumption was -3.1% YoY, indicating weakening short-term demand momentum.

  Comparison

  This is a marked slowdown from 6.9% single-month growth in May, while cumulative growth also fell from 5.7% in 5M26 to 5.3% in 1H26.

  Risks

  Weather volatility, weakening industrial demand, declining utilization hours, and electricity price pressure may affect earnings expectations.

• Renewable generation and wind/solar operators

  Highly related

  Strengths

  The share of wind and solar generation rose to 18.9%, while solar generation in 1H26 increased 12.3% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  New solar and wind capacity additions in 1H26 fell 66.0% and 24.8% YoY, respectively, while wind generation fell 1.9% YoY.

  Comparison

  The year-over-year decline in new capacity additions mainly reflects the high base from the installation rush in March-May 2025.

  Risks

  Slower pace of new capacity additions, lower utilization hours, grid absorption pressure, and policy timing changes.

• Data center and AIDC power demand chain

  Structurally positively related

  Strengths

  Electricity consumption in IT services (including AIDC) grew 44.0% YoY in 1H26, showing that AI and data center demand remains strong.

  Weaknesses

  This demand subsegment still needs to be distinguished from the slowdown in the overall tertiary sector and cannot alone represent industry-wide demand.

  Comparison

  Overall tertiary-sector growth in 1H26 was 8.0%, clearly below the growth rate of the IT services and AIDC subsegment.

  Risks

  Data center construction pace, electricity price policy, grid connection conditions, and regional power supply constraints.

• EV charging services chain

  Structurally positively related

  Strengths

  Electricity consumption in charging services grew 56.9% YoY in 1H26, making it a high-growth subsegment within tertiary-sector electricity consumption.

  Weaknesses

  The base effect, regional distribution, and profitability of the business model still require further validation.

  Comparison

  Significantly above the tertiary sector's overall cumulative growth rate of 8.0%.

  Risks

  Changes in EV penetration, charging pile utilization rates, and electricity tariff and service fee policies.

Key data

• 1H26 China power demand growth5.3% YoYBelow 5.7% in 5M26 and close to 5.4% in 4M26.
• June 2026 power demand growth3.7% YoYSlowed significantly from 6.9% in May 2026.
• June electricity consumption growth in the secondary sector, tertiary sector, and residential segment4.7% / 5.6% / -3.1%The corresponding growth rates in May were 6.0% / 9.7% / 7.5%; the report says cooler weather was one of the drag factors.
• 1H26 electricity consumption growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing9.8% YoYA high-growth subsegment within the secondary sector.
• 1H26 electricity consumption growth in charging services and IT services (including AIDC)56.9% / 44.0% YoYReflects strong electricity demand related to EV charging and data centers.
• 1H26 total power generation4,750bn kWh，+3.5% YoYDuring the same period, solar generation rose 12.3% YoY, while wind generation fell 1.9% YoY.
• 1H26 share of wind and solar generation18.9%Above 16.7% in 2025.
• 1H26 overall power plant utilization hours1,392 hours，-113 hours YoYCovers thermal power, wind power, solar, hydropower, and nuclear power.
• 1H26 new power capacity additions158.7GW，-45.9% YoYMainly affected by the high base from the renewable installation rush in March-May 2025.
• 1H26 new solar and wind capacity additions72.1GW / 38.6GWDown 66.0% and 24.8% YoY, respectively.
• June 2026 new solar and wind capacity additions12.5GW / 13.6GWCompared with 8.7GW / 3.8GW in May 2026 and 14.4GW / 5.1GW in June 2025.
• 1H26 new thermal power capacity additions38.4GWAbove 25.8GW in 1H25.

Impact & implications

For investment judgment, the report suggests that China's power demand saw marginal cooling in June, which may weigh on market expectations for short-term demand elasticity in the utility sector; however, the high growth in electricity consumption from high-tech manufacturing, charging services, and AIDC indicates that structural growth remains in place. The rising share of wind and solar generation is favorable for renewable operators and grid-consumption themes, but the year-over-year decline in new capacity additions and the drop in utilization hours also suggest that the high base, grid absorption, and earnings quality need continued tracking.

Risks

• The slowdown in June power demand growth may continue, affecting expectations for utilities' electricity volume growth.
• Cooler or abnormal weather may disrupt residential and commercial electricity consumption, causing volatility in monthly data.
• The year-over-year decline in new renewable capacity additions and the fall in overall utilization hours may affect returns on generation assets.
• A higher share of wind and solar may also bring pressure on grid absorption, dispatching, and electricity prices.
• The report is an industry data tracking update and does not provide single-company investment conclusions; stock ratings should refer to the latest company reports.

What to watch

• Whether China's power demand YoY growth can recover from the June low in subsequent months.
• Whether the secondary sector, especially high-tech and equipment manufacturing electricity consumption, can continue to grow faster than the overall level.
• Whether electricity consumption growth in charging services and IT services (including AIDC) can sustain high growth.
• Whether new wind and solar capacity additions recover after the high-base period.
• The impact of a rising wind and solar generation share on utilization hours, electricity prices, and grid absorption.
• The impact of rising new thermal power capacity additions on the power supply-demand balance and capacity value.